tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post3950285459604307896..comments2024-03-27T08:05:06.228-07:00Comments on Don't fuck with Donville: My picks for 2017Penetratorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01670644029306203741noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-26327326318148905712017-01-12T15:48:44.670-08:002017-01-12T15:48:44.670-08:00Anyone's thought of cxi.to latest earnings rel...Anyone's thought of cxi.to latest earnings release?don't know if I should average downserfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15888430676043503942noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-21814981276313462312017-01-10T17:38:34.948-08:002017-01-10T17:38:34.948-08:00Hi unknown:
I have been following PBH for sometim...Hi unknown:<br /><br />I have been following PBH for sometime. It is one of the holdings of Turtle Creek asset management. What is your intrinsic value estimation on this stock?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-55050712010009082372017-01-10T16:16:16.850-08:002017-01-10T16:16:16.850-08:002017 Top Picks
1. GUD Knight Therapeutics
2. TNC ...2017 Top Picks<br /><br />1. GUD Knight Therapeutics<br />2. TNC TIO Networks<br />3. TOY Spinmaster<br />4. SHOP Shopify<br />5. BIR Birchcliff Energy<br />6. PBH Premium Brand Holdings<br />7. MPH Medicure<br />8. COR Coresite Realty<br />9. Ulta Ulta Cosmetics<br />10. APH AphriaAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05363437545504414727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-92214124405165793052017-01-10T12:41:49.400-08:002017-01-10T12:41:49.400-08:00Sorry,$22.00.Sorry,$22.00.Ace Heartlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08845571529724021633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-57494765206452065442017-01-10T12:38:29.458-08:002017-01-10T12:38:29.458-08:00In honor of memories past,today I purchased Valean...In honor of memories past,today I purchased Valeant Pharmaceuticals @ $20.00.Should be interesting.<br />BUY LOW.Ace Heartlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08845571529724021633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-19733170343489698272017-01-08T14:53:10.491-08:002017-01-08T14:53:10.491-08:00no idea, Acloner.no idea, Acloner.Angelo Dallashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15684479515068422912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-71111753960346282272017-01-08T13:12:07.835-08:002017-01-08T13:12:07.835-08:00Do you have any idea their book value per share is...Do you have any idea their book value per share is not growing?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-89500970369328097832017-01-08T11:41:31.325-08:002017-01-08T11:41:31.325-08:00Seems like a bargain. The market is pricing in sof...Seems like a bargain. The market is pricing in soft guidance, worried about future sales growth and possibly even concerned about the future of brick and mortar retailers. However, WSM seems to operate through both the retail and e-commerce channels. <br /><br />This ties in beautifully with the very next blog entry about EVOLUTION. (evolution vs your portfolio/ jan. 5, 2017)Angelo Dallashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15684479515068422912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-18987793169785738712017-01-08T10:31:01.133-08:002017-01-08T10:31:01.133-08:00Hey Guys;
I came across this fucking stock Willia...Hey Guys;<br /><br />I came across this fucking stock Williams-Sonoma (WSM); looks darn cheap but quality stock.<br /><br />the stock is at 2 years low; 3% dividend yield; ROE averaged last 5 yrs > 20%; ROIC > 20%; <br /><br />In past 5 years 1.6 billion returned to shareholders in the form of buy-backs and dividends. Shareholder friendly; <br /><br />Growing earning per share,,, trading at forward PE of 13. <br /><br />I did my own DCF modelling with following inputs:<br />no debt<br />FCF : 379 million (trailing)<br />10 yr growth rate: 3% (very very very conservative)<br />long term growth rate: 3%<br />Discount rate of 10%; <br />I get fair value estimate of 60 that is 20% discount to today's share price.<br /><br />This is fucking screaming buy for long term; has excellent dividend growth; <br /><br />Only thing that I couldn't understand is why the hell book value is not growing in tandem with EPS... it is because of dividend or what?<br /><br />I want to know what am I missing here or just market is offering us something...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-26386525848208090072017-01-08T10:19:09.040-08:002017-01-08T10:19:09.040-08:00There are 40 000 patients with PAH in the US. 10% ...There are 40 000 patients with PAH in the US. 10% get lung transplant and 90% need ongoing medical therapy.<br />Orenitram:<br />current revenue about 160 million (run rate)<br />Revenue per patient for orenitram is close to 100,000 dollars/ year. That would be 1 billion dollars/year if orenitram captures 25% of market share.<br /><br />potential revenue: 1 billion<br />Remodulin:<br />current revenue: 500 million<br />There are 3500 patients with external remodulin pump and if there is implantable pump, this number can double because many patients are unable to use pump and not willing to go through rigor of handling the pump.<br />Current revenue from remodulin is about 500 million with pump it can double to 1 billion.<br />Potential revenue: 1 billion<br />Tyavaso:<br />current revenue: 400 million (run rate)<br /><br />Expiring patents and how company is trying to mitigating these risk:<br />Adcirca: 250 million dollar revenue: nothing they can do about it. Expiring 2017<br />Remodulin patent expiring in 2018. Planning on getting medtronic implantable pump by 2017.<br />THis is mission critical.<br />It will save remodulin patent. How? Medtronic will only sell branded remodulin on the implantable pump.<br />for subcutaneous remodulin, the company is developing new drug device combination (patent protected) schedule to launch at about patent expiring time frame.<br />Tyavaso : even if patent expires; it is protected because it was approved with the device which is only manufactured by United.<br />Orenitram patent can be protected by orange book till late 2020.<br />Pipeline:<br />Medtronic implantable pump by 2017<br />Freedom products: Orenitram for reduction of morbidity and mortality by 2018<br />Beats product: 2018; berapost in combination with tyvaso for reduction of morbidity and mortality.<br />By 2020: Inhaled trepostinil for Group III PAH. addressable market 3.5 billion.<br /><br />So I don't see material revenue decline by 2020.<br />The key event will be approval of medtronic implantable pump.<br />so by 2020 potential revenue of the company could be:<br />Remodulin if the implantable pump approved: 1 billion<br />Orenitram: 1 billion<br />Tyavaso: 500 million:<br /><br />so by 2020 I expect the revenue to increase towards 2.5 billion.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-59020190900049855912017-01-08T09:24:15.259-08:002017-01-08T09:24:15.259-08:00Ce commentaire a été supprimé par l'auteur.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-31304883163215760752017-01-08T08:07:44.601-08:002017-01-08T08:07:44.601-08:00I have held a small position in INP since March 20...I have held a small position in INP since March 2014 so I am still under water on this stock for now but I have high hopes for this company. This was an excellent summary of the company's prospects by Acloner...Gavinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04771103734767703683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-46430434013932403932017-01-08T07:21:26.573-08:002017-01-08T07:21:26.573-08:00HBI has a roe of over 40% (but with $4 billion in ...HBI has a roe of over 40% (but with $4 billion in debt). What's the story with United Therapeutics (UTHR)? They are debt free. A six billion dollar company with $1 billion in cash and a lot of free cash flow coming in. They also have a roe above 40% and next year p/e of ten just like HBI.<br />Is there something the financials are not telling us about UTHR? A patent about to run out? Weak pipeline? Competition cutting hugely into their turf? Seems like a screaming bargain on the surface.<br /> <br />United Therapeutics is on at least three of the lists (including the penetrator picks at the very top). what risks might UTHR be facing? Angelo Dallashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15684479515068422912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-19505408670946639072017-01-08T06:18:04.884-08:002017-01-08T06:18:04.884-08:00Me too. I also use Haines. Nothing else.Me too. I also use Haines. Nothing else.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-89273088260784530902017-01-08T06:17:15.208-08:002017-01-08T06:17:15.208-08:00Input capital on venture exchange. I have had this...Input capital on venture exchange. I have had this stock for more than a year never sold a share. I picked up the shares in the bottom. I like the business because insider owns about 20% of the company so you have owner operator here who is working for shareholders not hired gun CEO. Their internal rate of return of capital is about 20-30%. There is a huge run way of reinvestment thus compounding shareholders return. Their operating cash flow in 2016 was 29 million with very low capex. The company is just 3 years old and they have started paying out dividend (about 2%); another sign the management is returning capital to shareholders....<br />Their clientele are farmers, they provide capital upfront to the farmer in the off seasons so that farmers can buy input (like seeds, equipments) during off season when the prices are 20-30% off and they never have to worry about monthly installments. Once they grow canola and harvest, then they pay back their loan with predetermined canola tonnage. The company sells the canola to crusher even at better price and makes some money trading canola futures too. They are growing very rapidly (profitably); they started out with less than 10 farmers 3 years ago and now they have 120 farmers (about). There are 50,000 farmers. Out of 50000, they will be targeting for about 20000 because not everyone is eligible. this is very new business model in ag space like streaming model they have in silver and gold. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-23231029835759986972017-01-08T04:06:35.799-08:002017-01-08T04:06:35.799-08:00Acioner, I really like Haines Brands.Morningstar h...Acioner, I really like Haines Brands.Morningstar has it as undervalued and a 5 star.The numbers are great with a 2% dividend and share buyback.The ROE is excellent.The forward P/E is 10.5.<br /><br />I love the chart.Straight down for 2 years and oversold on the weekly chart.My favorite way to pick bottoms.<br /><br />Finally,I like the product...wouldn't use anything else.Ace Heartlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08845571529724021633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-42683188453804701552017-01-07T20:30:32.845-08:002017-01-07T20:30:32.845-08:00Acloner, which INP do you mean? Input Capital corp...Acloner, which INP do you mean? Input Capital corporation on the venture exchange or the etf that trades the India total return index?<br /><br />Also: It's nice when other people find something valuable among your picks...but...which one of your picks do YOU have the most faith in? Why is that?Angelo Dallashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15684479515068422912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-6633358938364922462017-01-07T16:27:20.412-08:002017-01-07T16:27:20.412-08:00Hey ACe heartland can you let me know which one do...Hey ACe heartland can you let me know which one do you think is the very good idea among my list. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-46571871554170607032017-01-07T12:17:12.065-08:002017-01-07T12:17:12.065-08:00Thanks Acioner.
You gave me one very good idea.
Th...Thanks Acioner.<br />You gave me one very good idea.<br />That's all it takes to make $$$$.Ace Heartlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08845571529724021633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-81862798248521587442017-01-07T05:06:19.354-08:002017-01-07T05:06:19.354-08:00Here are my picks for 2017.
1. AGN.
2. LXFT
3.RL
...Here are my picks for 2017.<br /><br />1. AGN.<br />2. LXFT<br />3.RL<br />4.UTHR<br />5. INP<br />6. WDC<br />7.AIG<br />8.FRFHF<br />9.MTYFF<br />10.HBIAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01456422681124263144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-57142377046752384092017-01-04T10:38:46.782-08:002017-01-04T10:38:46.782-08:00Well said Vicario! I also think Donville has a phe...Well said Vicario! I also think Donville has a phenomenal record and has definitely made me money overall from some of his suggestions that I then did my own DD on. I know he will continue to produce stellar returns.<br /><br />Anyway here are my picks for 2017 in no particular order, good luck to all!<br /><br />1.ITC<br />2.CRH (Thanks Donville, I'm averaged in at $3.70)<br />3.TIO<br />4.GUD<br />5.OTC<br />6.PBH<br />7.GILD<br />8.SIS<br />9.TOY<br />10.SHOP<br />adrockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03570031991526222265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-35187244589928016582017-01-04T09:33:56.069-08:002017-01-04T09:33:56.069-08:00Went into the bunker and as of October 2016 is mak...Went into the bunker and as of October 2016 is making his quarterly news letter only available to Donville Kent clients. Unless he comes out of the rabbit hole, I'd bet we won't see much written of the dude in 2017 on this forum. Onward and upward for the readers on here - we're fully capable of being self sustainable. Rileyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17597188396564633892noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-5064334671056853302017-01-04T08:27:31.609-08:002017-01-04T08:27:31.609-08:00Angelo:
I don't think you are wrong in terms ...Angelo:<br /><br />I don't think you are wrong in terms of what investors have been conditioned to care about. Conditioned by the financial media and financial companies who rely on selling "research" and high MER index funds dressed as active funds. I charge a reasonable fee for what I do and my opinion is as follows: if you're going to charge a fee over and above what it costs to slap a few ETFs together and get market performance you sure as hell better be putting your clients in a position to outperform. Our flagship fund has a correlation to the market of 0.13 while beating it by an average of 6%/year since inception... and this is a balanced fund. Incidentally if it was a mutual fund it would rank #1 in the country. So why isn't my phone ringing off the hook and people throwing money at me? Because we are different... because owning a concentration of high ROE stocks is PERCEIVED to be risky because that's what their accountant, broker or talking head on TV AND their economics prof or textbook tells them. But it's utter bull shit. We have not only trounced the markets with this strategy (as has Donville, Hirsch, Mawer, Berkshire, Greenblaat etc...) but most importantly we've done it with LESS volatility than our benchmark. People are lemmings when it comes to investing. If they weren't we wouldn't have hundreds of billions of dollars invested in mutual funds who underperform the market they claim to be seeking to beat. Ok, I'm gonna get off my soap box but hopefully this makes sense. As a fund manager and investor I submit we have two choices: <br />1) go get market performance via cheap ETFs and resolve to the fact you'll still beat 85% of active managers OR<br />2) employ a strategy or portfolio manager who puts you in the position to outperform<br /><br />Clearly I'm in the 2) camp but there's nothing wrong with 1). Putting your money in a fund that charges 2% and is basically the market is beyond crazy in my opinion. I know I'm preaching to the choir here but for me to justify my income and existence I feel like I need to find the CZOs, RXs, DCMs full well knowing that some of these will be crap... just the nature of the beast. If this resonates well and you've got family or friends asking who to invest with i would appreciate a referral; that's all I ask.vicariohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15801909913461380146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-65173056502825194702017-01-04T08:25:09.777-08:002017-01-04T08:25:09.777-08:00I think I mentioned this somewhere before in this ...I think I mentioned this somewhere before in this blog. Donville has no responsibility to whoever decides to follow his advice. His only fiduciary responsibility is to the stakeholders in his funds. People have to learn to take responsibility for their own actions. When I make an investment in the market, I'm the one executing the keystrokes that makes it all happen. If you can't take responsibility for your own actions you shouldn't be investing for yourself, because the market in its own time will inflict many lessons on you. And there are no investing gods out there either. We're all just human beings trying to do the best we can. In the end I have found that the market itself has been my best teacher and all the more so when it really hurts.Gavinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04771103734767703683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-84878476522484627502017-01-04T08:07:58.377-08:002017-01-04T08:07:58.377-08:00I had breakfast with Jason Donville in November wh...I had breakfast with Jason Donville in November when he was in Vancouver last. He's decided to stay away from BNN and making his newsletter available to the public. His fund is closed, he had a rough year (mind you only down ~2%). My sense is he feels there's very little benefit from him making himself available for public praise and ridicule and frankly I can't blame the guy. While I've been managing money for 18 years it's only been the last year or so that I'm putting myself out there in the public domain. I don't mind being challenged, heck I don't even mind being poked and ridiculed as long as the comments are fair and respectful but the fact of the matter is most people who visit this site or watch BNN won't ever give me a dollar to manage and hence don't represent income for me and my family. I think in this day and age of the Internet where anyone with a keyboard is an expert that people often forget that the likes of Donville and me are real people with real lives and real feelings. Sorry to get sappy here but I truly believe that Jason just got fed up. Look at the guy's track record; it's phenomenal. Ya he fucked up a few big picks and ya he wouldn't waver when he probably should have but the guy contribute(d) his work with zero expectation of financial return (his fund is closed and BNN types don't invest w him anyways). I can't speak for JD but I do it cuz I love this stuff. It literally doesn't feel like work to me. So with that said let's have a great 2017 and good luck to us.vicariohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15801909913461380146noreply@blogger.com