Watch list for 2025

Today, I saw that a share of Netflix (NFLX) was sold for 932$. 

On may 2nd 2022, that same share was sold for 180$. By then, there was a panic that followed bad numbers for subscription, users sharing accounts and other stuff like that. 

I was very tempted to buy some shares. I noticed that the ROE and profit margin were interesting and everybody knew that it was a dominating business even though there were a few competitors and maybe some price war coming. 

But I didn't buy any share. And today, after only two years and a half, I would have made a profit of about 750$ per share.  

A performance similar to Meta/Facebook that dropped a lot and came back with strength within less than a year (about 88$ a share in october 2022 to more than 600$ today). 

I'm obsessed about what happened to these two stocks. Because they represented huge bargains. It's like seeing a very special and beautiful girl in a bar that looks at you with insistence and you say to yourself: "I'll find a better moment to talk to her later in the evening". 

Then, you wait and you wait, because you're not drunk enough. And eventually, that pretty girl was approached by other guys and there was never another better occasion. 

One of the best metric for me is the profit margin. However, most of the companies with high profit margins are expensive. Sometimes they're very expensive. But, if you find dominating companies (like Meta, Netflix or Nvidia) in a moment were it looks like their fantastic growth of the recent years is becoming to slow down, it's probably a good moment to buy them. 

Here's a list of companies with fantastic profit margins. It's a watch list for everybody because each one of these stocks offer a profit margin way beyond average. But not all of them operate in a high growth environement. Anyway, high profit margin and reasonable PE ratio = low risk (in my opinion). 

Nvidia: 55%

Visa: 53%

United Therapeutics: 42%

Microsoft: 36%

Arista Networks: 36%

Novo Nordisk: 36%

Canadian National: 33%

Copart: 32%

Intuit: 30%

Meta: 29%

Zoetis: 29%

Factset Research: 29%

Adobe: 28%

Crazy fucking performance which makes no sense

Can someone explain me how come my portfolio was up 45% last year and up 31% so far this year? It makes absolutely no sense. It's equivalent to a compound growth of 90% in two years, which is totally crazy. And yet, about 11% of my portfolio is made of which reduced my performance (because they're less performing than the market). 

That's fucking crazy and I'm constantly thinking that it won't last. But, at the same time, even when the market drops, good stocks drop too but not that much. It's usually stocks that have a hard time that fall even lower. Which means that stocks like Dollar General or Canadian National Railway which are close to their 52 weeks lowest point may be the best candidates to fall even lower given a substantial market drop. And Tesla would likely be less impacted. 

It's not because such things happen that such things are rationnal. But it's how it works and that's what I try to consider when I manage my portfolio. Because the performance of a portfolio is a sum of many things: intelligent allocation, stocks picks, a bit of timing, a bit of luck and picks that coincide with what the other investors will consider interesting too. 

I really like my position now regarding to investment. I'm pretty passive. I make very few transactions. I'm much more patient than before. My portfolio is doing well and I could retire tomorrow with enough money to live correctly (but not richly) for the rest of my life. Thus, I won't stop working in a close future because I want to live a bit more comfortably when I'm retired. 

Today, I bought some cannabis pills at the SQDC (Société québécoise du cannabis). I'm slowly sinking in that absurd rich and famous lifestyle where you begin with cannabis and end up fucking animals in some sect in South America. Life is meaningless and sometimes I say to myself that I may find the meaning of life in the ass of a sheep.