tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post2595373927548166052..comments2024-03-27T08:05:06.228-07:00Comments on Don't fuck with Donville: The horse or the jockey? Penetratorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01670644029306203741noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-5488898285198026882017-06-29T07:54:31.291-07:002017-06-29T07:54:31.291-07:00I sold my shares in Knight. I have very mixed feel...I sold my shares in Knight. I have very mixed feelings. At first, it seemed like I was paying $2 to buy $1. Then I learned about the jockey and his previous huge success. Then I learned that he has brain damage from an accident. It does limit him to a degree or slow him down a bit or force him to take breaks during the work day. Ultimately, I don't think he will have as much success allocating about a billion (or $750 Million) in capital as he did starting with a much smaller amount of capital. I would need to see a huge catalyst or a big move that's clearly positive to consider buying back in. If you don't see that huge stream of earnings coming in from a big bargain basement acquisition then your risk-reward with a brain damaged jockey and very little earnings is not favourable in my opinion. I suspect investors will do ok if they are patient...but there's less risk and more value elsewhere. If Goodman takes a turn for the worse or simply decides to retire, then Knight may be in trouble. If the bulk of the capital had been allocated (and they owned a third or some percentage of a great firm that operated independently) then great. No problem. As things stand now? smh*<br /><br />smh = shaking my headAngelo Dallashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15684479515068422912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-67516485987319413172017-06-29T04:53:39.242-07:002017-06-29T04:53:39.242-07:00I believe in this company and it is one of the cor...I believe in this company and it is one of the core holdings in my investment portfolio. What I like about the CEO is that he has a track record of disciplined capital allocation and a healthy regard for the long term value of his shareholders. He is a long term thinker and planner. The stock market emphasizes the short term to such a degree that almost everyone partaking in it suffers from recency bias. If the stock an investor holds hasn’t gone up in a year he questions his reasons for buying it in the first place. I’ve done this myself. But experience has taught me to focus on the long term and that means focusing on management teams who think in the long term…like Jonathan Goodman.<br /> <br />But as we are dealing with an unknowable future anything can happen and things might not work out. So we have to deal in probabilities. My thinking is the probability of this Knight Therapeutics working out is better than average and if an investor invests in a number of these stocks with good probabilities of succeeding and buys them at a decent price he should be okay…in the long run.<br />Gavinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04771103734767703683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-66881758136912406062017-06-28T18:41:35.921-07:002017-06-28T18:41:35.921-07:00"Eventually"... that's the most impo..."Eventually"... that's the most important word you've used.<br /><br />Which brings you back to "speculative" which was my word.<br /><br />Don't believe too much in anything, that's my advice. <br /><br />But I bet you don't give a fuck.<br /><br /><br />Penetratorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01670644029306203741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-51931494244030582602017-06-28T17:44:27.606-07:002017-06-28T17:44:27.606-07:00Penetrator, you make no sense on this one. You kno...Penetrator, you make no sense on this one. You know their three-tiered model is 1) product rights 2) equity investment 3) lending.<br /><br />With 3) it's 15-20% return, with 2) it's variable but so far there are indications of strong returns with at least a few and then the tack-on product rights and with in-kind they are just getting started. You eventually put that cash to work by a) buying Paladin back 2) buying assets back from a soon-to-be defunct Concordia or a Valeant etc..and GUD will be a 5-bagger plus. Edutraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11152124371486503665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-9248718732768528392017-06-28T17:24:08.533-07:002017-06-28T17:24:08.533-07:00Penetrator is right, the bet is on the jockey and ...Penetrator is right, the bet is on the jockey and he has already fell from his horse and got hurt seriously. I am always worry about the jockey's health, more than the stock price. I hope investing in Flat tummy tea is not the way to make money. Maybe they will raise some capital again to caress more money, just like Seraphin did. If the plan is to invest small, please stop doing equity rising or else jump on opportunity, just like Dutch Norgine did with Canadian Merus Labs for $1.65/share. I would have expected quite a better execution at this stage from such an experienced team.Fist of Furyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07788499714012608037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-46690135709991682412017-06-28T16:58:53.697-07:002017-06-28T16:58:53.697-07:00They may have an innovative model, they don't ...They may have an innovative model, they don't get that much cash from it. <br /><br />Please share your math with us.Penetratorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01670644029306203741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9031526429482744032.post-42984810175279137572017-06-28T15:40:25.371-07:002017-06-28T15:40:25.371-07:00The horse-or-jockey argument around GUD is too sim...The horse-or-jockey argument around GUD is too simplistic. GUD has articulated a pretty unique model for growth and profitability --- three different ways to make money. And while they cannot hold the cash indefinitely, it is pretty easy math to model out over 10 to 20 years a much higher stock price.Edutraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11152124371486503665noreply@blogger.com