mardi 24 juin 2014

Concordia Healthcare: Fuck my genetics

What the humanity owes to Jason Donville is the discovery of Paladin Labs and Constellation Software. Two huge home runs of the last few years on the TSX. I've had them both and I've made a lot of money because of Jason, my financial hero.

Of course, he's had some strange recommandations too. And because I follow his advice like if he was the Christ of investing, I lost some money because of him too. But none of his recommandations resulted in a total failure.

So, keeping in mind that he made us aware of Paladin and Constellation, each new discovery made by him is susceptible to be another great one.

At the last appearance of Jason Donville on BNN, I've seen that the biggest position (13%) of his fund is now Concordia Healthcare. It was quite a surprise for me, because, from what I knew, his biggest position was Constellation Software in January. And he never spoke of Concordia Healthcare before. How could such a big position appear out of the blue?

And what about Concordia Healthcare?

First thing I always do is to check the ROE on Reuters. The ROE is -111 which is awful.

Second thing I do is to check the performance of the share:

52 week low: 0,96$
52 week high: 35,65$
Actual price: 31-32$

Phew, that's what we call performance.

Third thing I do is to check everything on the balance sheet (debt, revenues, growth in EPS, etc). And then, I see...

I see absolutely nothing interesting. Well, let's precise that the track record is very short, so it's actually hard to see anything under these circumstances.

And then, I think about Sequoia Fund and the big position they took in Valeant a few years ago.
At the time, I didn't understand what was so attractive with this highly leveraged company (a lot of debt). Still today, even if I have a large position in Valeant, it doesn't respect my usual criteria of selection. All I see is a desire to eat everything, especially elephants and hippopotamus. And even blue whales. 

So, from the little that I understand at this moment, it seems that Concordia Healthcare follows the same pattern as Valeant (a lot of acquisition that results in a lot of debts).

All I can do is to think that some superior intelligence has seen something before me that I'm unable to see at the moment.

I feel like a fucking homo erectus who can't follow homo sapiens Donville even if I live at the same fucking era. I feel retard. Fuck me. Fuck my genetics.

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