In october, I wrote some lines about the results of the four analysts listed above over a one year period.
Three months later, in the eye of the storm, let's take a look at which analyst did the best. Take note that the period is slightly different for each analyst because they almost never appear on TV at the same time. However, their appearances have been close enough to compare them.
Once again, I've retained the three top picks for each analyst. An average return is calculated for each list of 3 top picks.
Jason Donville (february 5th, 2015)
Valeant (VRX.TO): DOWN 45%
Constellation Software (CSU.TO): UP 38%
CGI Group (GIB-A.TO): UP 6%
Average return for top picks: 0%
Fabrice Taylor (january 28th, 2015)
Klondex Mines (KDX.TO): UP 2%
State Office (SOT-UN.TO): DOWN 20%
Snip Interactive (SPN.V): DOWN 48%
Average return for top picks: DOWN 22%
Christine Poole (february 10th, 2015)
Royal Bank (RY.TO): DOWN 12%
PPG Industries (PPG): DOWN 20%
Loblaws (L.TO): UP 4%
Average return for top picks: DOWN 9%
Bruce Campbell (january 14th, 2015)
Diversified Royalties (DIV.TO): DOWN 24%
Nobilis Health (NHC.TO): DOWN 16%
Patient Home Monitoring (PHM.V): DOWN 31%
Average return for top picks: DOWN 24%
Can you believe it? Two of these analysts did worse than the stock market with their top picks (Fabrice Taylor and Bruce Campbell). One analyst did almost the same as the stock market (Christine Poole) and Jason Donville is still the king with his 0% total return (beats the index by 11-12%).
I'm not really surprised for the results of Donville, but I'm beginning to think that the others are fucking lame. They're suppose to give advices to people on TV and they fucking can't achieve results better than the index with their biggest conviction picks.
Worse, they fucking achieve results twice as bad as the market.
As discussed last time, Veronika Hirsch was on BNN on August 24, 2014 and her picks were CCL.b (85.4%), ATD.b (92.9%) and LNR (-13%) for an average of 55% for 17 months...
RépondreSupprimerBased on her following appearance on March 2nd 2015, she selected CCL.b (59%), ATD.b (24%) ans ROST (-1.3%) for an avg of 27% for a little more than 10 months... Not bad for 2015...
She also picked BYD.un several times which averaged 55% per year for the last 3 years...
Value
I don't follow her closely but I may do it pretty soon. She looks like one of the few worth following.
SupprimerCampbell is terrible. He is starting to quote his income fund when appearing on BNN for top 5 holdings. The Stonecastle Fund is a disaster. He can't consistently pick winners or preserve capital.
RépondreSupprimerThe worst one of the bunch is Fabrice Taylor. I get his free Presidents Club letter and it's constantly offering excuses for his losers. Apparently he's 100% cash which is the best return he'll ever recommend.
Signed up for 5i which is decent. The guy isn't pushing "hot stocks" rather guiding people to create solid portfolios instead of investing in mutual funds or etfs. I just wish he'd offer some market timing or acknowledge that the economy is slowing but I still respect the service he's providing.
Are you selling 1/2 positions or keeping any cash on hand? I don't know what the fuck to do. So many holding are growth by acquisition which in a falling market creates opportunities but I don't know how well my nerves can stomach a turnaround if we're talking months or years. Stuff is so volatile to both upside and downside I'd feel like a turd to sell now and have a stimulus plan announced and miss out of stocks tearing a new one.
Everything depends on what your portfolio looks like. At this moment, I'd bet on companies which have a lot of cash like CGI group or Knight Therapeutics.
RépondreSupprimerWith their cash, they may buy something big which is on sale right now.
On the BNN guest comparison: are you seeking alternatives to Donville because he has had a tough 2015 (his healthcare focus has not worked out at all) or just compare his with others to confirm that he is still the king?
RépondreSupprimer- Like all stock pickers, Donville will have losers but I find that he is so much more candid and honest about them. How many times you do hear other BNN guests day "yeah well - I saw fundamentals change right here just before it dropped 40%". Yeah right - BS!! Donville admits mistakes, apologizes to investors who followed his lead, and often he still owns. Overall he still has many more winners than losers. I look forward to his annual letter in a couple weeks.
For benchmark comparison,
- I also like Veronica Hirsch, lots of winners.
- James Telfser is new but seems very solid.
- I like Christina Poole but she is a larger cap and part US picker so not expect correlated results with Donville.
- I am not sold on Fabrice Taylor at all.
- Bruce Campbell chases momentum too much- his top 10 holding are drastically different every 2-3 months. He did make me discover CRX but he has a bunch of microcaps that have not done well at all (-80%)
- I am a 5i member and find Peter Hodson excellent with great opinions now that he can provide advice "conflict free". I recommend membership as source of stuck idea, etc.
We should have an "Ayoye Tabarnac" part 2. So far, I made mistake of trying to buy low too early (end of first week of Jan), I did not think it would last 3+ weeks!! I hang in there as I think my companies are solid. If earnings go down, it should not be much. I.e. their fundamentals are still good, with solid management. Only thing that changed is valuation. Sure it would be nice to market time but then you stress when to get back and risk missing out. It is easy to say after the fact that you would have sold but I don't need money short term so - so far I hang in there but do want to puke some days!!!
The idea of cash full companies is good as it should cushion downside.
- I bought GUD for my wife.
- GIB may make an acquisition (which may be what you referred to) but it technically still has $1B net debt vs $3B at Logica aquisition...
- Couple other idea that I brought up before: ESL and WPK
Good luck to everyone and hang in there in brutal times....
I don't know if they'll be an "Ayoye tabarnac part II" because, for the moment, it's not so bad for me. It's a bad start, but at last, this time, it's not related to a specific stock I own.
SupprimerFor your other question, I'm not looking for someone better than Donville. I'm just curious and I've never saw anybody comparing analysts this way.
In a way, that makes a post more objective because we take a look at facts instead of opinions.
I think we all agree that Fabrice Taylor is by far the worst. I also get the impression Campbell had a few winners in a hot market and is riding it as long as he can on BNN. I don't trust the guy. He'll recommend a stock and a month later it's gone from his top holdings. I agree that at least Donville has some conviction with his picks. Concordia Healthcare has been a rollercoaster but it's still a top holding for the guy. I'll invest with a guy like that any day.
RépondreSupprimerTaylor has pretty cool glasses, though.
RépondreSupprimerCe commentaire a été supprimé par l'auteur.
RépondreSupprimerRemember when I talked about Veronika Hirsh... She was on BNN Market Call yesterday February 25,2016...
RépondreSupprimerShe just averaged 30% with last year picks. Not too bad following last few months... see BNN twitter note;
Veronika Hirsch of @ArrowCapital - Past Picks from March 2, 2015 - $CCLb.TO (+54.60%), $ROST.O (+7.68%), and $ATDb.TO (+26.85%).TRA: +29.71%....
Today's picks are ATD.B, TSN.N-Tyson Foods & Cash... Don't expect another 30% with that, but 10-15% even if Cash is close to 0%...
Last time her picks generated an avg of 55%...
Value Man