mardi 8 mars 2016

What the fuck?

It's probably not a scoop for anyone but yesterday, on market call (BNN), the three top picks of Jason Donvile were: 

- Concordia Healthcare
- CGI Group
- MTY Food Group

Three great picks once again. All solid companies that have done well in the past and that should continue to do well.

But, on the BNN website, I've read something pretty crazy:

Donville Kent has sold almost all their Valeant position in november. Now, their Valeant position is about 0,5% of the fund (it was something like 10% not so long ago).

In october, Jason still had Valeant as a top pick. Still in october, he went to BNN on a rant against Andrew Left and Citron research, calling Andrew Left "a turkey" and defending Valeant vehemently.

What the fuck? A couple of weeks after having Valeant as a top pick and after discarding Citron's point, saying that Valeant's ROE is very high, making it a great company that many people didn't understand because of their model, he sold almost everything...

What the fuck Jason?

WHAT THE FUCK? 

52 commentaires:


  1. Humility is an investment quality for an Investor... fundamentals seems fine, but there is a lot of smoke around VRX... If clouds are good things for IT cos like MSFT ( Windows & Office for networks)- GIB.a & CSU, it is not for healthcare companies...

    When bad news are frequently around the same company, stock is down by 65% from is previous high, you can easily imagine the company won't be able to fund accretive acquisitions with new "cheap" shares... US politicians are also targeting large price increase especially for Valeant- a Canadian Co.

    Management is another key asset... a lot of people have faith in Michael Pearson, but it's lack of communication during the Philidor saga frustated Bill Ackman... one of his biggest supporter. There was a lot of speculation around his departure during his sick leave...

    All of this before the SEC investigation...

    If you have more confidence in CXR, faith in Mark Thompson, then you are selling VRX to increase CXR...

    This is exactly what I did 2 months ago... I sold VRX, my formerly largest position to increase CXR, CRH, NHC & CSU by 20%...

    Value

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    Réponses
    1. I understand and agree to everything you're saying but why the fuck talking with so much conviction to sell everything shortly after?

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  2. Pulling an Ackman, as in tax loss selling, then intending to scoop back later?

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  3. It is bullshit. These talking heads need to offer more information than buy/sell/hold. How about a target price? Holding period? Stop loss? Is this a buy and hold stock or something to trade? How about letting us know in your numerous appearances on BNN or your newsletter between November-Now that your opinion on Valeant has changed?

    I have a strict investing rule that accounting irregularities = sell. I sold all my Valeant in October 2015. I did the same when Algonquin Power delayed their earnings report due to accounting conflict last year and bought back in once things cleared up. I hate the idea of missing out on some upside but I just look at this cost as insurance to the downside.

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  4. I'll give Donville the benefit of the doubt. Because of Valeant's size, Jason choosing it as a top pick isn't going to sway the stock price significantly and I don't think he'd make it a top pick just to move the price up. He's been ethical in the past on BNN by not letting anyone know who his top picks are because he doesn't want anyone to have an unfair advantage - in the years I've been watching and reading him honesty, ethics and trust have been values he embraces and in return exudes.

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  5. Yeah, this sucks when this happens. Unfortunately this is a risk while coat-tailing. I did notice that the Capital Ideas fund didn't report Valeant in their top 10 holdings as of December 1st. Jason is one of the honest guys that appear on BNN. I have had others say that their largest holding was Top Pick XYZ company in their fund and when I checked the fund that was not true.

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  6. Are you buying more Valeant today?

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  7. I feel bad about your experience with Valeant.. I'm sure you'll make it up on another stock. What is your position moving forward with a concentrated portfolio? I still have large holdings (8%+) in ATD.B, CGI, AGN, CSU but remaining holdings are below 5% and I'm increasing the number of stocks I hold to 25ish and bringing down my concentration. 5iResearch is great for ideas.

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  8. Valeant just broke the Guiness World Record for largest daily trading volume.

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  9. How did Jason calculate Valeant's ROE to be 60% in his January 2016 newsletter? Prior to today the company's market cap never dropped below 30 bil and with revenues of just 10-12 billion this is mathematically impossible lol

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    Réponses
    1. He used the same accounting methods as Valeant. As with Valeant he also delayed issuing guidance regarding the stock.

      Supprimer
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