vendredi 30 décembre 2016

The end of the great challenge: Penetrator VS Donville

On january 30th 2016, I wrote a post titled "The great challenge: Donville VS Penetrator". 

Let's compare our mutual performance, from february 1st 2016 to december 30th 2016 (11 months).

Donville picks:
CGI Group: 7%
Home Capital Group: 10%
Concordia Healthcare: -93%
Constellation Software: 21%
CRH Medical: 97%
Average return: 8,4%

Penetrator picks:
Canadian Pacific: 16%
Valeant: -86%
Knight Therapeutics: 54%
Couche-Tard: 1%
Allergan: -27%
Average return: -8,4%

Penetrator 2 long shots:
Ten Peak Coffee: -39%
Rifco: 40%

Man, I really suck. I've been beaten by Donville by 16,8%. I'm so ashamed.

Let's take a look at some other people results:

BPY.UN: 0%
TOT: 9%
GUD: 54%
ATA: 19%
TNC: 37%
Average return: 24%

Etienne Pouliot:
HCG: 10%
HLF: 34%
MTY: 65%
GIB-A: 7%
WJA: 25%
Average return: 28,2%

AGN: -27%
CLR: -1%
ESL: -8%
ATD.B: 1%
KXS: 33%
Average return: 0%

CLR: -1%
CBL: 105%
GS: -11%
ITP: 55%
SJ: 4%
Average return: 30,4%

BX: -1%
IEP: 12%
IBM: 33%
WMT: 3%
WYNN: 30%
Average return: 15,4%

Dean A (it looks like this guy didn't understand the rules)
GIB.A: 7%
CSU: 21%
CRH: 97%
GUD: 54%
WCP: 67%
DEE: 125%
FRU: 35%
Average return: 58% (Wow, but he had 7 picks instead of 5)

Value Man
ATD.B: 1%
GIB.A: 7%
CCL.B: 36%
BYD.UN: 37%
SJ: 4%
Average return: 17%

In retrospect, as you can see, you're all better than Donville (except for Twotime) and you're all much better than me. You're the ones that should have a blog. What the fuck are you doing here? You'll only learn to do poorly if you keep coming here.

I've always thought that "nothing changes on new year's day" like U2 sang. But this time, something will change on new year's day. Not something significant in the history of humanity, but something significant in the history of this blog. I'll come back with my picks for the year ahead in a few days...

Happy new year everybody.

6 commentaires:

  1. Allergan and Concordia really kicked me in the nuts this year. Spent the first 8 months of 2016 using leverage and short term trades to cover this mess and had a small portfolio gain (after paying off leverage) over the last 4 months. I thought Allergan was a sure thing with either the Pfizer merger or Teva's Generic Portfolio purchase as a catalyst but it didn't happen. I ignored clues and trusted management too long with Concordia. I would have been better off in an index fund.

    I have to say I'm limiting my investments in companies I don't understand or wouldn't average down in the event of a downturn or rough patch. I've learned that a 97% gain to cover a -94% loss isn't my style. Some people (like all of you) will do better in the short term but over the long term I'm sure most will have average returns at best. I continue to hold ATD.B, KXS and CLR with average weights in my portfolio and expect good things over the long term.

    The link Penetrator posted for Bernard Mooney's articles really hit a chord for me. It's boring but I've narrowed down my portfolio to companies I understand and use 5iResearch for a second opinion when in doubt.

    Unlike Donville I'll own up to this one and keep interacting with people. Your blog is fun to follow. Your picks might suck but I appreciate your other insights.

    1. I hadn't heard of Kinaxis until you mentioned them and then I did some reading and jumped in. It was a great stock for me and I sold it in early November - I owe you a beer.

  2. Actually a one year time frame is too short to measure long term performance but it was fun and interesting to see the results. Don't sell yourself short Penetrator, you could very well blow us all out of the water next year. I know the market will be there waiting for us to try our hand again.

  3. Congratulations guys. You all survived this tough, tricky year fairly well. I see some great value plays and some great growth stocks among your selections. It will be interesting to see what you are banking on to do well in the new year. Happy New Year. Bonne Année.

  4. I'd support a 2017 challenge if other folks are up for it...

    1. It would be great to see everybody's picks at the beginning of the year. What an opportunity to monitor some stocks that I may not even have heard of and possibly invest in them in the future.

      This is worth noting:

      I hadn't heard of Kinaxis until you mentioned them and then I did some reading and jumped in.//