dimanche 1 avril 2018

If I ever lose my faith in them

Some people seem to have lost faith in Couche-Tard and even MTY.

For these people, a stock should always go up, year after year. A stock that slows down is a stock on the edge of bankrupt or something similar. Don't ask me why. Ask those who think that way.

Something tells me that Alain Bouchard and Stanley Ma are preparing their grande finale. They're both in their late 60's and they've built a large (Bouchard) and medium-small (Ma) empire. They've done very well so far. They didn't fuck up in the last years. I'm sure they're both gonna do something huge in the next 3-5 years.

Like The Police in 1983, they probably want to leave at the top of the mountain, with a last great achievement. Oh yes, the history of rock and roll can learn you a lot of things about the stock market.

Instead of gambling on weed or on Bitcoin, why not betting on Couche-Tard? If you like high emotions, why not putting everything you have on Couche-Tard at about 14-15 times earnings? It's not such a good idea to gamble everything on one horse, but it's probably 100 times a better idea than putting cash on speculative shit that never achieved anything.

And don't forget that the market is not that cheap. Why not buying stocks run by excellent managers that go through a slower period? Because you need an instant performance? In that case, weed is for you. But instant performance usually goes in both directions (up and down).

10 commentaires:

  1. I like Couche-Tard but do have concerns about the long term displacement of gas stations with electric charging stations. I think the future will be places like Malls or Restaurants having vehicle charging stations to attract customers to stay and spend. If I had to choose I would pick a McDonalds to sit and charge at instead of a convenience store. As for shopping, once delivery gets down to 2 hours or less, or my fridge is smart enough to order food out of stock then the need to run out last minute to a Couche-Tard will be a rarity.

    I also hate their new branding. The Canadian goods sold have different labels than the US anyway so I don't understand the need to convert the Canadian outlets when Macs is so established.

  2. Speaking as a consumer, I have always felt that Couche Tard was making fun of me with their high prices. They are even expensive compared to other smaller convenience stores.
    As for MTY, every last one of those chains of restaurants found in the shopping malls tastes like rat poison to me. Mcdonalds seems like a high class restaurant next to the restaurant names MTY owns.
    In short, I believe you have to be mentally retarded or lazy beyond comprehension to give your business to Couche Tard. There's a supermarket not too far off (usually next to them). Discipline yourself to get everything you need there. It's not hard. You'll be paying about half the price. LOL
    couche tard and mty offer convenience to lazy people. as companies, they can do very well because there's a lot of stupid and lazy people out there. It's just getting harder for the stupid and lazy people to be left with any money to spend. I feel more secure investing in a dollar store chain that offers value for money.

    1. Yes, Couche-Tard is expensive but it’s always been expensive.

      Starbucks is very expensive too, and I never go there. But what the company does is working.

  3. I don't own ATD.B because of the dual share structure but it's still makes money all day long. I own 100 shares of MTY and also think it's a great company. With boomers having all sorts of discretionary income and mills with their love of laziness and malls I believe it will contine to do well. I'm anxious to see first quarter earnings.
    A Canadian stock that nobody talks about is goeasy financial. I love this business model and it's 17% ROE. Also pays a nice 2.3% dividend. Anybody else own it?

    1. I could never buy a sub-prime lender, the business itself is way too risky.

    2. I’ve owned Easyhome in the past for a few weeks. Didn’t feel safe about it.

      (It’s the former name of Go easy).

  4. MTY and ATD are in my top four positions.

    MTY shares were diluted during the Imvescor acquisition and P/E increased because they screwed up by forgetting to accounting gift cards as liability. MTY has a very good net margin (in the 15% range) and constantly making acquisition. A good time to buy in my opinion.

    I was about to suggest a discussion about ATD because my faith is swaying. The stock is stagnant since two years, much less acquisition, the founders are selling their stock and Alain Bouchard is no longer the president. However the fundamentals are there, there is still room for expansion because it is a proven international company and not sure it is a good idea to bet against this company

  5. Richelieu is in the same situation as MTY and ATD: a strong but aging leader, a good growth track record but actually trading at a low price. Would you loose faith in Richelieu?

  6. Richelieu is in my opinion in the top 15 or even top 10 best stocks in Canada.

  7. P/E as of today:

    MTY: 11
    Couche tard: 16