samedi 6 avril 2019

Jason Del Vicario over the last year

Everybody knows Jason Del Vicario. The guy known (by himself at least), as the new Jason Donville. The guy known by me as the guy who's been saying for two or three years that we'll eventually meet in Quebec City and have a few drinks together.

I'm still waiting for that event. And I think about it often. I'm 100% heterosexual, but Vicario makes me doubt about what I really want. 

So, we all know now that he doesn't do what he's supposed to do. Does he perform like we think he performs?

Here's his picks from last year (april 12th, 2018). Let's see how it's been over the last year: 

Top picks: 
Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO): 48%
Dollarama (DOL.TO): -23%
Data Communication Management (DCM.TO): -15%

Buy: 
Biosyent (RX.V): -23%
Boyd Group (BYD-UN.TO): 36%
Sangoma Technologies (STC.V): 26%
Photon Control (PHO.TO): -28%
Suncor (SU.TO): -7%
Take Two Interactive (TTWO): -4%
Sleep Country (ZZZ.TO): -44%

Weak buy:
Shopify (SHOP.TO): 71%

A lot of negative performances on that list. Some strange names too. 

Average performance: 3,4% including Shopify and -3,4% without Shopify

Performance of the market over the last year: 7%

I declare the market winner over Vicario. 

****EDIT****

Like everyone on this earth, I'm influenced by the media. I take a piece here, a bit there and I figure the whole puzzle with my impressive mental skills. In that particular case, I used the website Stockhase to collect datas about Jason Del Vicario picks. That was my only tool. But Jason had some precisions to bring and they were interesting.

Well, 99% of the time, I'm right and 1% of the time, I don't have all the information to be right. Perhaps that post should be included in my 1%. But I doubt it.

Usually, when I'm wrong, it's other's people fault.

Here's Jason's answer to my post:

Interesting analysis. Being judged based on the symbols people call and ask me about on BNN is pretty arbitrary (I'm assuming you take this from Stockhouse... and they get their information from the BNN shows). I would suggest judging a PMs abilities on their track record or at the very least stocks they actually own. We don't own SU, TTWO, STC, PHO. We also own the likes of CSU, ROST, MA and such. You're not really comparing apples to apples here. Furthermore, we have a 4% weight to CSU and a 0.5% weight to DCM so taking a simple average again is useless. In short, you have no idea what we own or our weights. Lastly, you're comparing us to a 1 year time frame. We don't publish what we own for obvious reasons but if you actually want to know what we own rather the speculate based on third party information found on the web, e-mail me and I'll get you that information. I will be in QC in September; we'll grab beers then... that is if you want to... I mean I'm not very good at picking stocks so maybe it'll be a waste of your time?! Your call. Jokes aside, I look forward to finally meeting in person.

9 commentaires:

  1. Interesting analysis. Being judged based on the symbols people call and ask me about on BNN is pretty arbitrary (I'm assuming you take this from Stockhouse... and they get their information from the BNN shows). I would suggest judging a PMs abilities on their track record or at the very least stocks they actually own. We don't own SU, TTWO, STC, PHO. We also own the likes of CSU, ROST, MA and such. You're not really comparing apples to apples here. Furthermore, we have a 4% weight to CSU and a 0.5% weight to DCM so taking a simple average again is useless. In short, you have no idea what we own or our weights. Lastly, you're comparing us to a 1 year time frame. We don't publish what we own for obvious reasons but if you actually want to know what we own rather the speculate based on third party information found on the web, e-mail me and I'll get you that information. I will be in QC in September; we'll grab beers then... that is if you want to... I mean I'm not very good at picking stocks so maybe it'll be a waste of your time?! Your call. Jokes aside, I look forward to finally meeting in person.

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    Réponses
    1. Interesting reply Vicario. Your answer deserves to be published after my post.

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    2. You still like Dollarama, mainly because you think the outlook on market is grim. Wouldn’t that mean it’s a good time to pay off mortgage?

      I’m looking to add a stock right now. Looking at TOY or PBL or MTY or ENGH. I also think the banks look good right now in non-reg for dividends.

      When will you be on BNN next?

      We should have a yearly stock picking contest, winner gets 1 free beer with Penetrator in Quebec.

      Loser has to buy Penetrator a beer.

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  2. Hmm, he recommends buys for viewers but he diesnt own some of these names himself, what a surprise. The only so called stock pickers on BNN who I do follow would be hodsen , Modesto and Driscoll. The rest of them are far from great stock pickers .

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  3. I'll be on next be on BNN May 2nd.
    Reindeer: just so we're clear: When I go on BNN, people call in and text in with questions. There are currently 30 stocks I follow in Canada. I refuse to answer most of the questions that come in because I simply don't follow the company. Let's take Saputo. I follow them. I like them but right now I feel they are pricey so we don't own them. So I'll say this when asked. Stockhouse takes snippets of what I say and provides a list of stocks I've talked about. They condense 20-30 seconds into 5-10 words. I answer to my clients who pay me to manage their money. To the extent BNN (and me) finds value in me being on their shows I'll continue to do it, but please do not take my word on whether you should or shouldn't buy a stock. My 20-30 second opinion at a point in time, or the 5-10 words that Stockhouse presents as my opinion does NOT constitute research. Do your own research. If you don't know how to, learn or pay someone to manage your money for you. Good luck!

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  4. Oh and Ryan, Peter are great. Absolutely listen to what those guys have to say. I'm not familiar with the third person you mentioned.

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  5. Fair enough mr vicario . I respect your feedback . I will tune in on May 2 and hear what you have to say. Happy investing 😀

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  6. I think it's important to remember that the ultimate responsibility when someone decides to buy the stock of a company resides in himself. Market Call can be a valuable resource if used with a little commonsense. As vicario has said one should do his own research and take responsibility for his own actions...For myself I'm a big fan of Stephen Tackacsy. I've learned alot about stock picking from him over the years.

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  7. 90% of the callers just want to hear the sound of their own voice and prattle on like they're the experts. What can be irritating is the 'picks' are actually pumps to suckers. These guys are not holding for 1 year and likely sold their positions.

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