The current crisis just started, but what a start! Holy fucking cunt, it's been an horrible couple of weeks. Every store, from Shanghai to London is closed. Everybody, from Rio de Janeiro to Moscow is in his home, jerking off watching anal stuff on the deep web.
Today, Emmanuel Macron and Quebec leaders said that it was just the beginning of COVID-19 crisis. So, it looks like we're gonna have a taste of apocalypse.
Is it just the start of the massacre? Nobody knows, just like it's always been the case. That's the beauty of life. We never know anything about the future. We don't even know if there's a future.
Once again, there's nothing like taking a look at some historical datas. So, let's take a look at the S&P500 chart since january 1928:
There's been some tough times, but someone who put money on the stock market in 1928 had made about 100 times his money this month, even after the big drop we've just experienced. That's not bad.
And here's the worst market drops since 1928:
Over the last 92 years, the stock market had a -10% performance or worse, 21 times. A few years have been negative, but better than -10%. So, let's keep in mind that the performance of the market has been negative about 25% of the time. For all the jovalists out here, it means that you have 75% of chances of making money with the market, if you invest on a random year.
The year 2020 is the fifth worst year of the last 92 years so far. So, we've reached a bad performance that's been rarely seen. It doesn't indicate that today is the best time to buy shares, but it surely indicates that it's a special moment. Let me remember you that we can currently buy a lot of stocks for less than 50% their average PE ratio.
Of course, there's been a few times were there's been 2 or 3 pretty bad years one after the other (1929-1932, 1940-1941, 1973-1974 and 2000-2001). Nothing tells us that we won't establish a new record of 4 or 5 ugly years. But the chances are slight.
To me, it's clear that it's at least an OK moment to buy shares. It may be a pretty tough beginning of decade. Perhapes that we'll be in a deep shit until 2023. But I'm pretty sure that by 2030, the stock market will offer us a nice reward if we're astute enough to adjust our portfolio to this reality.