This week, with the news of a vaccine against COVID, the market was very excited. Many brick and mortar companies were up like if it was trendy to go to a shop and buy stuff.
Tourism related stocks like Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Marriott (MAR) were also up a lot, just because that potential vaccine would heal the world.
And, at the opposite, many tech names were down a lot, like if the pandemic was finally over and these tools would be less useful in the future.
I'm bad to prophetize about the future, but I'm almost sure that work from home will survive in some industries. And I also think that these 8 months of pandemic (which will probably become a 12 months pandemic) will be a trauma for a lot of people. Some won't travel for many years. Some others will just shop for what's essential. Will everybody go back to shops like before? Surely not everybody. Pandemic or no pandemic, shopping online is always practical.
Also, with all that toxic stuff we put on our hands before entering any shop, I'm pretty sure that a lot of people will get hand cancer and will be amputed of their hands. Nobody talks about that, but to me, it's the main threat of all that pandemic.
Best case scenario, most of canadians and americans will receive the vaccine during the spring, which is about 4-5 months from now. Will everything be like before the pandemic after 12 months of lockdown? I'm sure not.
In Quebec, the government is currently thinking about closing schools once again, like it was the case during last spring. I don't think that things will look better in the short term. And in the USA, things are going way worse than in Canada.
In that regard, I think that:
A- Tourism won't recover before at least 2 years (optimistic scenario);
B- Tech companies related to commerce or work from home will continue to do well after the pandemic;
C- Traditional stores will recover as soon as there's a vaccine but they won't do as well as before the pandemic;
D- Watch out for global debt (governements and businesses). A reflexion about that topic would be useful because I believe that this new reality will result in some opportunities for investors (please, feel free to suggest some opportunities because I don't see any at this moment).