lundi 31 mai 2021

Portfolio review, may 31st 2021

 Another quarter, another review. That's how it goes. 

It's harder and harder to find something to write here. I feel like I'm 80 years old and I always repeat the same obvious things that nobody care about. I'd like to write about something else, but, let's face it, nothing happened in my life during the last year. I don't even know if I'll ever go out and have some fun. Maybe the best part of my life is over?

I'm currently planning a few trips during the summer. I'll go to a remote part of Quebec, I hope to be able to go to Ontario if borders reopen, I'll probably go to Saskatchewan and, if I get my two vaccine shots before summer is over, I'd like to go to Yukon. That would make 4 canadian trips this summer. Not very exotic but varied and probably a lot of experiences during these travels. By contrast, my life in my basement implies zero experiences.

It is time for the quarterly portfolio review. 

Number of stocks: 20

Three biggest stakes: Google, Facebook, Constellation Software (30% of the portfolio)

Average ROE: 30

Average forward PE: 32

Average Beta: 1

Estimated annual EPS growth next 5 years: 19%

Penetrator Portfolio Performance YTD: 6%

S&P Performance YTD:  14%


It's almost certain that my portfolio will be beaten by the S&P this year. I don't plan on changing my strategy to help my portfolio. I just accept, halfway through the year, that an index fund would beat me for the whole year. 

Yep, beaten by something without a brain.

12 commentaires:

  1. Jason Donville beat you . His return YTD to April 30, 2021 is 6.06% Hahahahahahaha!

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  2. J'espère que tu vas faire un post sur le Yukon!

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  3. When was the last time SPY beat QQQ? Has to be over 10 years ago. Is this year going to be the year?

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    Réponses
    1. I don’t even follow that kind of stats. But the best stocks are on the Nasdaq.

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    2. I don’t even follow that kind of stats. But the best stocks are on the Nasdaq.

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    3. I don’t even follow that kind of stats. But the best stocks are on the Nasdaq.

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    4. I don’t even follow that kind of stats. But the best stocks are on the Nasdaq.

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  4. Hello everyone! Thank you, Penetrator, for sharing an update with us.

    Here is my portfolio as of 2021/06/03.

    CASH (CAD$). . . . . . . 1.25%
    TSE:EQB . . . . . . . . 11.97%
    TSE:ATD.B . . . . . . . 11.15% (averaged up)
    TSE:CSU . . . . . . . . 10.38% (averaged up)
    TSE:DOL . . . . . . . . 9.17% (averaged up)
    TSE:ENGH . . . . . . . . 8.12% (averaged up)
    CVE:TOI . . . . . . . . 6.76% (spin-out + new)
    CVE:CTZ . . . . . . . . 5.58%
    TSE:BAM.A . . . . . . . 5.27% (averaged up)
    TSE:ECN . . . . . . . . 4.97%
    TSE:GIB.A . . . . . . . 4.34% (averaged up)
    TSE:CCL.B . . . . . . . 4.29%
    CVE:PVF.UN . . . . . . . 4.08%
    TSE:CNR . . . . . . . . 3.62% (averaged up)
    TSE:MTY . . . . . . . . 3.47% (sold some)
    TSE:NFI . . . . . . . . 2.62%
    TSE:BYD . . . . . . . . 1.31% (new)
    TSE:CTS . . . . . . . . 0.76% (new)
    TSE:DND . . . . . . . . 0.51% (new)
    TSE:WPK . . . . . . . . 0.38% (sold some)

    TTM AGGREGATE STATISTICS
    PE 34.0 (EPS yield of 2.9%)
    PB 2.6
    ROE 7.74%

    As mentioned before, I believe the portfolio ratios should be calculated as a single unified holding company (ie aggregate balance sheets and income statements into a unified portfolio values and then do the ratios). Otherwise, a simple average can be easily distorted (for e.g. DOL has almost no book value per share and would have on its own ROE of 465)

    I have changed brokers and turned over most of my TFSA holdings (now just 7) in spring so I do not know my YTD performance. The porftolio is about 7% off its all time high sometime in February (despite of some small additional contributinos - I don't have any income right now). 7/20 companies representing about 22% of my portfolio had GAAP losses per share for TTM (often due to large intangible writedowns in 2020). Hopefully this will normalize in 2021. I did a little bit of cleaning up but in retrospect many of the changes were at least in the short term questionable decisions (selling cyclical/worse companies cheap and buying better companies more expensive, only for the trend to reverse in a month or two later). I am still planning to liquidate several of my holdings (lack of growth opportunities and/or confidence in management) but am waiting for better prices.

    I hope you are all doing well and are staying healthy. Best of luck everyone!

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    Réponses
    1. I think that it is a really bad idea to hold on a not so good stock and hope for a better price!

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    2. I agree with Pete. Well now when you have something better in mind.

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