jeudi 4 novembre 2021

EPAM systems (EPAM): Expensive but that's the price you have to pay for a stock that delivers

Every investor with a few years of experience develops his own zone of comfort or niche like we say, us, specialists in the field. Je réclame le droit de m'auto-proclamer sommité, stie. 

Some people stick to the idea that the normal PE is 15 and they shouldn't buy anything that's more expensive than that. Some people don't even know what PE is and buy anything their guts tell them to buy. 

Me, I like expensive stocks, but not too expensive. I'll use once again my analogy about cars and say that I like to buy Mercedes. Mercedes cars are expensive, but they're high quality cars and everybody knows that. I don't buy Ferraris because they're cars of exception. I can't tell if a Ferrari should be sold for 500 000$ or 1 million$. Tesla is good example of Ferrari. You get it? 

My niche is mostly stocks with a PE between 30 and 40. That's expensive, but I buy stocks that are at least five times better than the average stock. Which maybe means that the price I pay is cheap for such quality. Can a specialist about logics can confirm my theory? 

A good example is EPAM systems. I bought 30 shares in march 2020 (168 USD each), just as the market was going down like crazy because of COVID.

Today, these shares hit 700 USD. Just a little more than 18 months later, my shares more than quadrupled. 

Everything was obvious in march 2020 with that stock: good ROE, good margins, great growth, no debt, great track record. The only burden was the price to pay. It was expensive. But guess what? It's still expensive. 

That's why I like these 30-40 PE stocks with high growth. Usually, they deliver. Sometimes, they don't meet expectations and they go down like crazy. But among a portfolio of 20 stocks, when you own 10 of these expensive stocks, most of them do good. The condition is for you to analyze these stocks versus hundred of other stocks to be sure that they're really special and unique. 




7 commentaires:

  1. Pretty good exposition of your investment philosophy Penetrator...

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  2. merci merci merci la dernière fois que tu en as parlé j'en avais acheté... 8500 $ grâce à toi

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    1. Ça fonctionnera pas toujours mais tant mieux si ça a été le cas cette fois. Tu me dois un banana split!

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  3. Ta publication sur Inmode me faisait penser à Epam en 2020... comparable ?

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    1. Sais pas trop! Je pense que InMode a un beau futur mais ce sont deux secteurs différents et InMode a de bien meilleures marges que EPAM. Toutefois ce sont deux excellentes compagnies.

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  4. Did you ever look into Roper Industries ? Same kind of stock, great allocators.

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