lundi 29 avril 2024

My investment philosophy

Being an investor for about 16 years (I began during the fall of 2008, in the middle of what was then perceived as the apocalypse), I now trust my judgment more than anything else. 

Here's a bit of my investment philosophy achieved after these years made of hope and despair. 


1- Read as many things and analyze as many stocks as you can to reach as soon as possible the point where you trust your judgment more than any other source of information;

2- Don't trust other investors, don't trust fund managers, don't trust websites except if you triangulate the information by searching many other websites;

3- Invest only in companies that make money and more money year after year (look for stocks where earnings double every 5 years... for instance, between 2013 and 2018, then between 2015 and 2020, and so on...);

4- Invest only in companies where margins are high and ROE is high (if you find a company where margins and ROE are above 20 year after year, you've found a company that is among the 1% of best stocks... however, these stocks are usually pricey);

5- Don't get blinded by investing and money. It's only a tool to reach independance. You'll die and your money won't be useful anymore sooner or later. Also, there is no god, no heaven, no future. So, enjoy life while you're able to enjoy it. Once you're rich, if you're able to help poor people once in a while by buying them food at the grocery store, do it to prove to yourself that you haven't lost your humanity.

6- Look for simple people who don't care too much about money and don't put too much emphasis on investment. These people are more fun. Think about money only when you're alone with your computer and your Excel spreadsheet. Use your money to buy things that make you happy. Do it from 40 years old until the end of your life;

7- Never, ever forget that life brings many unhappy times and experiences and live your life without waiting for these times to happen. Your portfolio is a tool to be secure and have fun before getting cancer or seeing everyone around you die, one after the other. 

dimanche 11 février 2024

Three stocks I regret (having sold them or never bought them)

I made a lot of mistakes and I have a few regrets concerning my investing journey over the last 15 years.

My main mistake has been to follow others by investing in stocks that didn't seem so good to me. But the conviction of others may make you lose your critical thinking. When you begin, it's very hard to be independant and don't be influenced by other's opinion, especially, the so-called experts (by the way, I now think that there's probably no experts in the investment world)

These last years, I haven't made big mistakes if I define a mistake as investing on a bad company or losing a lot of money with a bad decision. But there are a few stocks that were very good occasions that I missed because I thought the risk was too high while it wasn't. 

These three stocks were blue chips: super solid stocks with high margins and high ROE. They were all available at a very good price (between 10 and 15 times their earnings) in the last few years. Since, they all came back to a "normal" price for such high quality stocks (PE of 25-30).

These three stocks were Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX) and Meta (META). 

Lesson learned: when a stock with margins over 20% and ROE over 20% is sold for under 15 times it's earnings, the chances that it would be a good investment are high. 

I don't think that betting 50% of your portfolio on one of these stocks would be a good idea (like Buffett who invested 50% of Berkshire Hathaway's money on Apple) but 2-3% on one of them should be a no-brainer if they ever go back to such ridiculous price.