vendredi 28 février 2020

Nobody is happy at the same time

Wow, now, that was a fantastic week! It was the biggest market drop since 2008. I'm so excited! And I've bought probably more shares this week than in the last 2 years. My favorite stocks: 25 times next year's earnings stocks with a low beta and highly predictable earnings. Like Mastercard and Microsoft for instance.

I really like it when the whole market goes down. It's the only time when you can buy without thinking too much. When a single stock drops a lot, you're never sure if something stinks. When the whole market goes down, you know that it's a panic and panics are your best friend when you're an investor.

As the current crisis will continue and take more proportions (I'm not sure about that, but that coronavirus will probably not disappear anytime soon), you'll read many people talking about their financial strategy. And you'll wonder if their strategy is good or wrong. Probably that you'll be influenced by many of them, because we all seek advice when we face a new situation.

Here's my thoughts:

1- First of all, at any time, you should only own stocks that you like and that are appropriate for any time (crisis or economic expansion). If a crisis exposes the weakness of your choices, you've missed something. You should continue to read books and blogs about investment. The time when you take a crap is an excellent moment to perfect your skills about that field of interest;
2- When the market goes up, it's time to sell some stocks (reduce your positions), not when it's down (except if you've found something better and cheaper);
3- You should always have some money left to take advantage of a sudden drop. That amount of money goes with your personality. If you're prudent, save 5-10% of your portfolio for a cash reserve. If you're more aggressive, be fully invested. For instance, my cash reserve was about 15% a couple of weeks ago. It's now about 7,5%;
4- When a sudden drop happens like it happened this week, you'll be happy only if you have some money left. If you don't have any money left, you won't be able to buy some stocks with a bargain. It doesn't mean that you're not a good investor, it only means that this time, you'll be unhappy while I'm happy. It's gonna be your turn later. Because nobody is happy at the same time on the stock market.

lundi 24 février 2020

A great day

I don't know for you, but I've been very active as a buyer today. Actually, I'm almost excited about all these 5-7% drops of prices today.

First of all, MTY released good results. I bought back some shares that I've sold for a couple bucks less last week. OK, I've lost a few hundred dollars with that move, but I wanted some security and I believe that it was the right thing to do at the time.

On the canadian side,  there's also Dollarama which is down a lot lately.

MTY and Dollarama may only grow by 10-12% on an annual basis from now on, they're still among the best stocks in Canada. Well, I have some doubts about MTY, but I still like it.

Then, many great american stocks were down 5-7% today:

Facebook, Amazon, Keysight Technologies (down 6% during the day, then up 6% after-hours because of great results), Paypal… I've bought more shares today than I've done over the last year. The stock market may continue to drop over the next weeks, I don't care.

I still have a lot of cash left, so I'd only be happy with a crisis with that harmless coronavirus. Come on, more people die of flu than coronavirus. And even if it's an epidemy at some point, I don't care, because if we all die, the value of our portfolio doesn't matter: we'll all die. Oh yeah, at last, we'll all fucking die like we deserve to do.

So, come on, you fucking stock market: go lower. Go to a point of absolute panic and give me Copart for 15 times earnings. Yeah, drop that fucking price by a half.

dimanche 23 février 2020

Blank page

Here I go again. I hate with passion about 2 people who poison my life. I'm currently pretty impatient and I feel like I hate everybody around me.

More, I don't have anything to say about that fucking stock market. It looks like I've written everything.

Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKKKK!!!!!!

dimanche 16 février 2020

How to react with MTY Food Group?

Last friday, MTY Food Group delayed it's planned fourth quarter results after some whistleblower's complaint.

We don't have any more details about the complaint. However, the market didn't like this delay at all: the stock lost more than 8%.

So, what should you do, if you own the stock?

The answer is: I don't know. LOL. It depends on what's the exact reason why there's a delay.

Such delayed results happen very rarely. We don't really see that kind of stuff with great companies. I think I've seen that with Nobilis Health (which was a promising stock a few years ago but is now a crappy penny stock).

So, I believe that it doesn't smell good. But I may be wrong.

Here's how I would react, given three options:

1- If I didn't own the stock, I'd probably buy a small position (2-3% of my portfolio);
2- If I had a big position, I'd probably sell a good percentage of it;
3- If I had a small or medium position, I'd probably wait and see.

When there's smoke, there's usually a fire. But maybe this is an exception. Anyway, whatever everybody says about a specific company, we should never trust entirely any CEO. Even if he looks like a quiet gentleman with a very reasonable income.

dimanche 9 février 2020

Giverny Capital performance

Given their website, Giverny Capital returns have been 25,6% for 2019. That's good, but not better than the market. Of course, once again, Giverny compare themselves with a homemade index, which isn't particularly fair if you ask me. Their homemade index had a return of 22,3%.

I guess that many people coming to this blog have beaten Giverny Capital and Donville Kent in 2019.

The little bird can fly out of the nest.

You don't need all those people wearing ties!

jeudi 6 février 2020

The value of time

Today, my ex-neighbour announced on Facebook that it was the end for him. His cancer had spread amongst his organs and it was now time to stop chemotherapy.

I cried inside myself while I read that. Because real men don't cry. Only fags do.

Oh fuck, what's the value of time?

That's the only real thing that has value.