jeudi 21 avril 2022

"Everything Elon Musk touches turn to gold"

I'm still shocked by how so many investors think.

For instance, because Elon Musk is the wealthiest man in the world, everything he touches will probably turn to gold... in the mind of some people. 

However, any investor who digs balance sheets before investing knows that Tesla has a very very very esoteric valuation. That stock is not in the same universe as 99% of stocks available. It's a case of "In Musk we trust" more than anything else. 

Twitter is a little more in a rational universe, but that company still loses money on a regular basis. Losing money means negative margins, negative ROE and negative PE. 

As fascinating and mysterious and intelligent and awkward Musk is, he's got a lot of money in unorthodox companies. 

I would never advice anybody to invest in Tesla or Twitter. Actually, I'd rather advice people to invest in a stock where the CEO is a very quiet guy, like Constellation Software's Mark Leonard. 

Quiet people usually stay away from scandals. They don't live to provoke. I'm sure that Musk likes to provoke people. That makes a good show. But does any investor wants to own shares of a company run by someone who likes to create polemics on Twitter? 

lundi 11 avril 2022

Some concerns about Facebook

Facebook is really cheap now. Plus, they have no debt and lots of cash. 

But, if we forget the numbers that investors like to see, who's still active on Facebook?

I thought about that yesterday, and I realized that probably 90% of my Facebook friends aren't active anymore. They post a family picture twice a year and they share stuff about gofundme when one of their relatives has a disease. That's about it.

Of course, Facebook is more than Facebook. It includes Instagram, Messenger, Whatsapp... But are them really a trend?

So, in retrospective, as cheap as Facebook may be, I have some trouble to see interesting growth there. It's mature and, not exciting anymore. 

Is it the new ICQ?