mardi 31 mars 2015

Some crazy fucker is short on Callidus Capital

Some crazy fucker in a hedge fund decided to short Callidus Capital. The news was in the media today, at the same time as the company reported results.

The results were very good. But the stock went down because of a not so solid decision to short the stocks (based on a dispute as we can hear).

Investors are lemmings. Warren Buffet said that years ago. So, on the news of a hedge fund going short, a lot of people decided to sell their stock, and a decrease of more than 10% happened in the price of the stock.

It reminded me of the american hedge fund that decided to short Home Capital Group one or two years ago. Well, this time, it's a company with a shorter track record than Home Capital, but it's nevertheless a good company with solid numbers. In my view, you should never short a company that makes profits and that is cheap. I've never been short but if I would, it would be about a stock that is going to bankrupt.

At less than 10 times future earnings, with a ROE of about 18, earning per share growth of 56% since the last quarter (!), Callidus Capital is a strong buy in my opinion.

... And, by the way, Novartis Health is up more than 30% since my last post. Their results were very good. A buy too for that one. 

jeudi 19 mars 2015

Let's pump two new purchases

Hi there dear investors from all around Canada. From Yellowknife to St-Raymond de Portneuf. You, cupid assholes.

Today, I've made two brand new purchases. I've bought two companies that are unknown to a lot of investors out there. You have to go to stockchase dot shit to see some analysts talk about these but you won't see a lot of opinions.

By the way, even Jason Donville has stated an opinion about these stocks lately. He was positive. And what I've read on the Internet about these stocks makes me positive too.

Callidus Capital (CBL.TO)

Market cap: 830 millions $
Forward PE ratio: 10
Industry: Financial services to companies that have difficulties
Very strong growth
Jason rating: buy
% of my portfolio: about 1,5%

Novartis Health (NHC.TO)

Market cap: 250 millions $
Forward PE ratio: 11
Industry: Healthcare services (they've recently bought an hospital in the US)
Very strong growth
Jason rating: speculative buy
% of my portfolio: about 2%

I now have 16 stocks in my portfolio. I've tried hard to find something to sell because I try not to exceed 15 stocks in my portfolio. But I couldn't find anything to sell. And I wanted to have small positions in these two stocks to begin. You never follow something too close until you invest in it.

So, let's follow these two stocks. I'm pretty confident that at least one of these two will get very good results in the next weeks. 

lundi 9 mars 2015

Healthcare stocks, once again

The appreciation of the S&P 500 is almost flat since the beginning of the year. However, some healthcare stocks have performed very well.
I have three stocks in my portfolio that dit well since the beginning of 2015. Each of those have recently made a big acquisition that have had a nice impact in the value and price of the shares.
I’m still convinced that the best thing somebody could do is to constitute a portfolio of 10-15 great healthcare stocks. You’ll get a low beta, predicable earnings and almost certainly a general long term appreciation.
Don’t buy stocks with promising products but no earnings. Buy stocks that have a lot of cash and generate a lot of cash.
Here’s my three companies that performed well and have made a big acquisition in the last 2 weeks :
Valeant : 50% appreciation since the beginning of 2015 (Salix : 14,6B$ acquisition recently)
Concordia Healthcare : 40% appreciation since the beginning of 2015 (Ikaria : 1,2B$ acquisition recently)
Mallinckrodt 23% appreciation since the beginning of 2015 (2,3B$ acquisition recently)
And here’s two other stocks in which I still have a lot of confidence for the year ahead : Gilead (GILD) and Cipher Pharma (CPH.TO). They haven’t made an acquisition yet, but it may be the case soon. They both have a very high ROE and a lot of money in hand.

vendredi 6 mars 2015

Sequoia Fund goes Constellation Software

Holy fuck, what a consecration!

Today, I've discovered that Sequoia Fund, one of the best funds in the world, has initiated a position of about 110 millions dollars in Constellation Software (at today's price but they probably paid less than that).

That company buys almost only A1 management teams. I think they're a little late to the party (I've bought my first shares around 90$ each and the price is now around 430$) but if they join, I'm confident to keep my shares longer even if I trimmed my position a few weeks ago.

Is Jason Donville responsible for that? I don't know. But I haven't heard of a lot of analysts talking about Constellation Software. So, I maintain my opinion: Jason has brought Constellation Software to the popular conscience. And the popular conscience has crossed the border and went to some of the best investors in the world.

Take a look at the top 6 stocks of Sequoia Funds and you'll only see great companies with a very good track record:

1- Valeant (23%)
2- TJX (9,6%)
3- Berkshire class A (9,5%)
4- Fastenal (5,9%)
5- Berkshire class B (5,4%)
6- O'Reilly Automotive (4,5%)

Constellation Sotfware ranks well below with about 1,1% of the fund.

Jason has recently said to buy Constellation Software and the guys at Sequoia just did it too.

With the current PE ratio, I'm not so sure if you should buy. But you surely shouldn't sell 23% of your shares like I did.