jeudi 31 mars 2022

Canopy growth (WEED.TO): A huge LOL

No so long ago, many people were into cannabis stocks. It was the trendy thing to do. Pot is the next big thing! With legalization, a lot of people will buy pot! Canada will become the new Amsterdam! It's gonna be Woodstock every day in the Great White North! And "Dark Side of the Moon" will once again top the charts!

Of course, nothing happened. Some people started to buy a bit of weed, but only junkies started to buy pot on a regular basis.

I've known a few people who were excited about pot stocks. Their excitation was closely linked to their appreciation of the chart for these stocks. They didn't see a special thing in results or in popularity among consumers. They just thought that this party would never end.

And of course, the party ended.

WEED.TO stock price:

April 1st, 2017: 9,13$

April 1st 2018: 30,11$ (about 6 months before canadian legalization)

April 1st 2019: 67,67$ (about 6 months after canadian legalization)

April 1st 2020: 22,20$

April 1st 2021: 33,15$

March 31th 2022: 9,52$  

LOLLLLLLLLLLL at those of thought that cannabis would become the new Iphone. 

vendredi 25 mars 2022

Why looking at new stocks constantly?

I don't understand those who are constantly looking for new exciting stocks.

My opinion is simple: When you select stocks, you should be looking for stocks of exception. Which means that these stocks are among the top 5% of what's available. 

For instance, most people think that Constellation Software is an exceptional company. 

Once you've selected 10 equivalent of Constellation Software in your portfolio (there's probably no equivalent to Constellation Software, but let's say some companies that look as great as this one) and you have analyzed 100 other stocks, you probably know that your stocks have better ROE, better margins, lower debt and better growth perspective than the other stocks. You may find something better, but you have way more chances to find something worse. 

I've liked Chuck Akre for some years now. And he's the kind of investor that sticks with what he selected many years ago. He simply increases or reduces his position because of valuation or perspectives. Which means that, if Mastercard looks to face some headwinds, he's not gonna sell his stake. He will simply rebalance his portfolio a bit, but he still acknolewdges that Mastercard is an exceptional company. 

I think that thinking like that reduces greatly improvisation. We all improvise. I'd like to say that I never do that, but the sad truth is that sometimes I buy too early, without measuring correctly what I'm doing. And sometimes, I buy a specific stock which doesn't respect my criterias, because I think that it may be an exception. Usually, it's not an exception. It's simply not a stock for me. 

That's the beauty of life. We spend such a big part of our lives doing nonsensical things and wasting time. Actually, there's probably something like 5-10% of our lives which is spent on rational things. 

Imagine the kind of Buffett you could have become if you had simply copy his portfolio instead of trying various investment approaches. Imagine the kind of Mozart you could have become if you had play piano all these hours instead of watching random people on Facebook. 

And that's why nobody will remember you when you're dead. 

mercredi 23 mars 2022

Portfolio review (march 23rd 2022)

Some people seemed to think that the recent drop in the markets affected me and caused my absence in march. While I may sometimes write things that may suggest that my portfolio's performance affects me, in reality, it's not the case. 

I was on vacation and thinking about many other things than the stock market. Actually, for the last month, I haven't watch the market that much because I had no more money to invest. What's the use of being tempted without the possibility of doing something?

Apart from that, I'm much more concerned about my health and my kids health than about my portfolio. 

Nobody's supposed to die, but there are some concerning stuff that makes me think a lot about the future. 

When you invest money, you're excited about the future. Things are supposed to be better in the future. But with health problems, you're worried about the future. Things are supposed to be worse in the future. So, my appreciation of the future has changed a lot recently. I'm fucking angry and sad and full of hate for god (which doesn't exist, by the way). 

Fuck you god, for doing nothing. Because you don't exist. 

Anyway, let's forget all that stuff and let's put a grin on our face and talk about my portfolio. Because that's what matters the most after all. Who gives a shit about my life and yours? We need information, not emotions. 


Stocks in portfolio: 20

Cash position: -4% (use of margin)

Average ROE: 40

Average forward PE: 27

Portfolio performance YTD: -15,5%

S&P500 performance YTD: -6%

It's not a good year at all so far. 

lundi 21 mars 2022

A quick way to become billionaire

Today, I read that JK Rowling's wealth was about 1 billion dollars.

The lesson is clear: If you want to get rich quick, just write a few books for kids. 

jeudi 17 mars 2022

Disney brand

Markets are still down a lot and so is my portfolio. But that's OK. I stopped watching at markets over the last weeks (not entirely, but way more less). 

I was in Florida at the beginning of march. I went to Disney parks and spent a lot of money there. It was fun but exhausting and expensive. Also, these parks are huge COVID pools. People without masks everywhere, touching everything. 

But it made me realize how strong the brand Disney is. Even though Disney makes everything to get every dollar we have:

  • 150$ US for one entry, for every person over 3 years old;
  • 25$ parking (you can't get close to the park without a taxi, a bus or a parking);
  • Food is really expensive (5$ for a Coke, 6$ for a small Ice Cream);
  • Souvenirs are very expensive too (25$ for a small Mickey Mouse);
  • A large part of some parks is there to simply make more money from visitors (for instance, more than 50% of Epcot Center is made of restaurants and boutiques).

I personnaly think that it's too much. Given the fact that a family of 4 people already pays more than 625$ US for a single day at a park without eating or buying anything, I feel that Disney abuses. But that's just my opinion because the parks are full. 

And that's why owning Disney shares makes a lot of sense. The brand is extremely strong and many families dream of living a superficial experience there instead of going to India and catch malaria. 

And I'm pretty sure that this won't change before a long time, because the castle of Magic Kingdom, the big tree of Animal Kingdom, the Star Wars stuff of Hollywood studios and the big ball of Epcot Center are mythical symbols. You can't do otherwise than asking yourself how many hundred million dollars they've invested to build these parks.