mardi 31 janvier 2023

Back with Grainger (GWW)

In 2011, I bought Grainger (GWW), a great stock that went down with the market during the summer. I did what I rarely managed to do: spot and buy a great company that went down a lot with the market for no reason. A few months later, Grainger was up like 25% and I sold it. I don't exactly remember why. I think that growth didn't look as good for the future. Or maybe I found some shitty penny stock to replace it (it was my "penny stock" period). 

Recently, I took another look at the stock and I realized that it went from about 200$ in february 2012 (when I sold it) to about 600$ these days. 

I could have tripled my money over these last 11 years but no, I tried to find something else more exciting.

What's crazy is that Grainger is still not that expensive even if it's track record has been great. The only thing that's changed is the debt level which is higher than before, but not so worrying. Of course, interest rates are way higher than before now. So, that's a bit of a concern but everything else looks great in my opinion.

Anyway, It's another of those cases of companies that looked good 10 years ago and that should never have been sold. Like Mastercard. Like O'Reilly. Like some of the shares of Constellation Software that I sold many years ago. 

I came back to all of them and I paid more than what I initially paid.  

When it's a very good company, don't sell it except if things look very bad. By very bad, I mean something illegal or some serious shit. Not a momentary stop of growth. 

vendredi 6 janvier 2023

When something's rotten...

When Valeant changed it's name to Bausch Health company and changed it's CEO, some people thought that this company would have a rebirth. 

But what these superficial people forgot is that a rebirth may be possible, but only for a company that's not been managed for years by a crook, that doesn't carry a very high debt, that didn't overpaid by far for many products and that didn't raised the price of some of it's products by so much that it lost all respect by millions of people all around the world. 

Change the CEO and change the name and all that shit remains.

I remember writing on some forum (probably Seeking Alpha) that this company was going nowhere even if the new CEO seemed to clean the place.

Then, a random guy told me that I lacked judgment by thinking that Bausch Health was now a totally different company. 

Actually, I don't know how things are going at this company. It's surely cleaner than it was because of all the exposure of the recent years. But I prefer to buy a house that's been well kept than a house where all the drains were broken and there was shit everywhere in the basement. Even with the best plumber, there will remain stains and smell of shit in the basement. 

Bausch Health stock price:

January 5h 2023: 9,72$
January 2022: 31$
January 2021: 34$
January 2020: 35$
January 2019: 32$

mardi 3 janvier 2023

Picks for 2023

I'm a little late since it's already 2023. But what are your top 5 picks for 2023? 

Please, submit only stocks that you own. Because if you believe in some stocks, why the fuck wouldn't you own them? I want believers, no gamblers. 

Also, please submit your picks before january 10th. If you're stupid enough to submit some picks on may 16th or some random late date, I will write a specific post to bully you.  

Here are my picks:

1- Constellation Software (CSU.TO)
2- Mastercard (MA)
3- Keysight Technologies (KEYS)
4- O'Reilly (ORLY)
5- United Health (UNH)