jeudi 30 avril 2015

Load the truck with Gilead, holy fuck!

For a while, I've been a fan of Gilead (GILD), a very large biopharma with a market cap of about 150 billions dollars.

I don't really understand why the valuation of this company is so cheap. In the last year, the valuation has been around 12-15 times earnings for a company that defecates cash like diarrhoea.

Here's some good points about the company:

1- Sector: Healthcare (best sector if you ask me);
2- Very High ROE (average = 50 for the last 5 years)
3- High growth (2010 EPS = 1,66$ and EPS should be around 12-13$ in 2015)
4- Very low price (PE = 9 at the time of this writing)
5- Great pipeline of products
6- Has a lot of cash
7- Buybacks and respectable dividend are effective

My only two negative points are:

1- Probability of patent losses and growing competition (main reason why the stock price is so low)
2- Very large cap (usually, you don't get rich with very large caps).

I firmly believe that the positive points destroy without any resistance the two negative points. The last results show it.

Oh yeah, the results of GILD were out today and it's so fucking great, I won't understand if you don't sell a kidney or some valuable part of your anatomy tomorrow morning to buy for a couple of thousands of dollars of shares.

Excluding items, Gilead earned $2.94 per share in the first quarter, beating the average Wall Street estimate of $2.32, according to Thomson Reuters 
EPS are up 108% over same quarter a year ago
Cash on hand: 14,5 Billion dollars

Follow the money. And money is at Gilead. You'll pay an extra cheap price for a company that gets so much money each quarter. So cheap in such an expensive market.

Someday, the market will wake up. Maybe not tomorrow, but surely one day. Same fucking story as Home Capital Group or Apple a couple of years ago: great results but little enthusiasm in the markets.

vendredi 17 avril 2015

Favorite websites to select an investment idea

Somebody recently wrote a comment saying: "I don't understand why an intelligent folk like you always uses the F word".

That guy has a point. I, for myself, don't know why I always use that word. I think it's probably because I'm francophone and using strong words make me feel part of the english community.

I can see why your cunt is full of shit because of my abusive use of the F word. So, for once, i'll make a big effort and I promise that not any line in this post will include this horrible word.

Today, I've decided to write about the websites that are the most useful for me. I generally get my investment ideas on those sites and I compare the recommandations with what is written on some other sites.

Best place to get easily the recent ROE, the ROE for the last 5 years, the EPS growth of your favorite company, the payout ratio and the predictions of the analysts following your titles.

The best website to get a lot of information about what has been said about investment ideas in english canada. That's where you'll find almost all what Jason Donville has said about his top picks over the years. That's where you'll find some good other advices too but generally speaking, there's a lot of crappy analysts that don't deserve a lot of attention. But, that's where I've got the idea for Nobilis Health lately and it's not Jason Donville who suggested it as a top pick...

Dataroma is a great website that details all the portfolio of the greatest investors in the world (mostly americans). Using that website, you'll can see what is the composition of the portfolio of Warren Buffet and many others. You'll also see all the latest insider transactions which could help you with the momentum around one of your titles. It helped me a few times (ans not so long ago with Valeant).

A cheap equivalent to dataroma. Well, a very cheap equivalent because the website looks like it's 2002, But you'll find all the latest insiders transactions for canadian stocks which could help you with the momentum around one of your titles. It helped me a few times.

Seekingalpha is a classic in the investment community. You'll mostly find analysis about american stocks there, and generally, large caps. But the community is very active and dynamic, so for each article about one of your favorite title, you'll see a lot of commentaries. Some of those are good and may guide you towards an investment decision. But a lot of dickheads write articles about stocks which they recently bought and try to pump their shares. Be cautious.

Speaking about sand in the vagina, the guy behind this website may have a few grains of sand in his reproductive engine because of me but his website is, in my opinion, the best place in Quebec to share ideas with other investors. I've found some ideas there too. And some people using that site share the same philosophy as me.

I also use that website once in a while. Less and less since a couple of years however. I don't think they're so great at anticipating a stock performance. But their analysis are very concise and consistent. So, in only a page (which is full of details), you'll get a great analysis. You have to pay to use that site, but if you use it via (if you're a quebecer), you can use it for free. People from other provinces may have a similar provincial advantage but I haven't made any verification.

No F word in that post. I've done it!!

lundi 13 avril 2015

Portfolio review (april 13th 2015)

Things are going well so far in 2015 for the Penetrator Portfolio. I’ve had about a 20% yield since january 1st, which is excellent, following two very good years. 
At the time of this writing, I own 9 baggers in the portfolio. If you haven't read a classic book about investment yet, you have to know that a bagger is a stock that has doubled. A two bagger is a stock that has tripled and so the fuck it goes (don't know if it's a valid expression but I have the intention to use it later). 
I don't have any stock  in which I don't have faith. However, I think that Constellation Software is pretty expensive now and Couche-Tard isn't cheap too. But these are probably two of the best managed canadian companies, so quality has a price.
I look back about three years ago and things have been incredible for me at the investment level. My portfolio is up about 200% since fall of 2012. A lot is due to Jason Donville's advices, once again. But it's never enough. I still want more. I always want more. Because once you've reach the top of the stairs with a stock, you see that some stairs are there and go even higher. That's infinite. 

I'm now a starving capitalist, each day of my fucking life. 

 A few baggers still in portfolio :
Constellation Software : 5,5 bagger
Valeant : 1 bagger
Cipher Pharma : 1,5 bagger
CGI Group : almost 1 bagger
Alimentation Couche-Tard : 2,5 bagger
Concordia Healthcare : 1,3 bagger
Mallinkrodt : 2 bagger (almost) + 20% conversion $US
Dollar Tree : 1 bagger + 20% conversion $US
Ross Stores : 1 bagger + 20% conversion $US

Portfolio on april 13th 2015:
Percentage of the portfolio
Cipher Pharma
Constellation Software
Home Capital Group
CGI Group
Alimentation Couche-Tard
Concordia Healthcare
Vecima Networks
Nobilis Health
Callidus Capital
Mallinkrodt (US)
Portfolio Recovery and associates (US)
Dollar Tree (US)
Gilead (US)
Ross Stores (US)
Dorman Products (US)

samedi 11 avril 2015

Freedom as soon as fucking possible

In the last few months, I've been thinking about selling a lot of my holdings for buying something like a grocery (Metro) or a kintergarden or something else that produces revenues in a stable way. I'm at a point where I want to feel free from work, or, at least, feel a little less obligated to work. In other words, I want a B plan.

Which leads me once again to the real reason why money is important for me: freedom. Freedom to retire as soon as possible and possibility to survive for a good period of time if a bad luck happens. I'm pretty sure I'll have some bad lucks in the future. Sorry to sound so depressed once again, but my ass is full of shit (if you can understand poetry).

I'm completely fucked up when I hear people saying that they're not ready for retirement. Come on, bunch of fuckers! How boring is your life to say such things?

I've been ready for retirement all of my life. I have enough hobbies and interests to get myself occupied. And well, let's admit that my interest for the stock market should occupy me too if I ever retire. It's gonna be my main occupation.

Having money helps me to sleep better (not to sleep well but to sleep with a little less anxiety) because I know that I could get through some bad luck. In fact, I see bad luck right ahead (or at least bad circumstances) and I'm exhausted about how life brings back bad luck each 3 or 4 years.

In fact, I'm pretty exhausted about being dependant about anything at all. Mainly to maintain a job.