mardi 26 mai 2015

David's Tea initial public abusive offering (IPAO)

The IPO of David's Tea sounded to me as great news.

Do you know the business? No? It's pretty simple. They sell a wide variety of tea and many people are crazy about this business because they feel so healthy, drinking tea. If you ask me, I'd tell you that they are just poor mofos trying to elevate themselves above the masses with their drinking habits. Fuck off. If I want flavour in my glass of hot water, i'll pour a few drops of lemon and that'll taste the same fucking shit, and that'll cost NOTHING.

The business has a very high CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of it's earnings (69% per year since 2009!). The product is bought at high frequency, it's a synonym of health, the business could be exported in many places and the margins seem high. All the qualities of a great investment (even if I don't drink tea except when I don't have the choice).

But fuck, they want to sell their shares at 50 times earnings. I know it's always like that with initial public offerings, but come on, I won't fucking pay that much, even for a business which seems great.

You know, there's three interesting IPO in Quebec for now:

1- David's tea (very soon);
2- GDI cleaning services (a very recent IPO);
3- Chocolats favoris (everybody in the area of Quebec City knows this, and more and more people know this in the Montreal area: they sell chocolate and, mostly, chocolate dipped ice cream). The valuation of the IPO should be high as fuck...

You should closely follow these three companies. I'm pretty sure that at least one of them is gonna be a multiple bagger in the next few years. Even if the price of the IPO is fucking abusive.

All in all, follow them, but don't buy them in the short term.

samedi 16 mai 2015

Growing up

Today, it's my birthday and I'm 36.

Each year, I'm richer and richer. The value of my possessions is now probably 10 times what it was 10 years ago.

I don't know if I'm more intelligent than before but I'm surely wiser. I have much more assurance about almost anything: my contacts with people, my sense of "let's go forward!", my control over my life, etc...

And even if I'm richer and wiser, I see the world the same fucking way as I did 10 or 20 years ago. I see it as a fucking cold place full of indifference. I see it as a dead tree on which the wind blows, in a desert plain.

I've had this image on my mind for years.

Hey, I'm not sad at all about getting older. But time, money and wisdom haven't changed anything at all. I'm a fucking prisoner of my vision. It can't change, whatever happens.

Time is stronger than money, intelligence, wisdom and power.

lundi 11 mai 2015

Recent buys

Even though the stock markets are high, I've recently bought some shares of Mallinckrodt (MNK), Gilead (GILD), Portfolio Recovery (PRAA) and Concordia Healthcare (CXR.TO).

The three first companies recently released their results and they were great (in my opinion). All of these have had a lot of growth recently and in the last few years.

Concordia Healthcare was down to 83$ last week and I'm pretty sure that the stock will reach 100$ minimum by the end of the year. In fact, I'm convinced that Concordia will follow the same path as Valeant in the next few years. In other words, Concordia should double in the next 2-3 years, and Valeant will probably do the same.

Mallinckrodt and Portfolio Recovery are more under the radar even if their results are pretty good. Anybody should check Mallinckrodt in my opinion. It's an irish stock with a lot of potential and I'm also convinced that this stock will double in 2-3 years because of agressive acquisitions and organic growth.

Gilead is a great mystery for me: fantastic results but almost total indifference in the stock market. Everybody still believe that the growth will stop and even decline. I, for myself, still believe that cash is king and when you've got cash like Gilead has cash, you almost always get better. I can't understand why someone could pass by a stock that is priced under 10 times next year earnings with a recent ROE of about 90 (which is amazing).

I'd also recommend Actavis/Allergan even if I don't own any shares. Their last results were pretty good and I believe that this stock will do well in the next few years