jeudi 30 juin 2016

The great challenge, 5 months later

On january 30th, I wrote an article titled "The Great Challenge" in which I picked some stocks to fight against Jason Donville.

The selection has been made on january 30th. Let's take a look at the results so far:

Donville's picks:

CGI group: -8%
Home Capital Group: 15%
Concordia Healthcare: -27%
Constellation Software: 3%
CRH Medical: 40%
Average return first 6 months of the year: 5%

Penetrator's picks:

Canadian Pacific: -3%
Valeant: -78%
Knight Therapeutics: 25%
Alimentation Couche-Tard: -8%
Allergan: -18%
Average return first 6 months of the year:  -16%

Penetrator's long shots:

Ten Peaks Coffee: -33%
Rifco: 39%
Average return for long shots: 3%

I really look like a fucking retard.

samedi 25 juin 2016


Two days from now, I'll have a little baby. After all the waiting and some deceptions, I'm pretty happy to finally get there. So, my mind is a little bit elsewhere...

Nonetheless, I noticed that Brexit has happened! Holy shit, it was such a shock when I woke up yesterday. I'd never thought it would happen.

The titles were apocalyptic in some websites ("the worst drop of the market since forever"). When I read some columns, I thought that my portfolio would be down something like 20%. But, watching the market, I saw that it wasn't that terrible, in America at least.

It was a relief and a deception. I like it when stocks are down (but not when it's my stocks).

I saw that two great companies were particularly affected by the Brexit:

Priceline and Accenture.

Both are expensive companies (between 20-25 times actual earnings but about 15-18 times next year earnings). Both have great great great balance sheet and exceptional ROE (about 30 for Priceline and about 58 for Accenture).

Yesterday, Accenture was down about 6% and Priceline was down 11-12%.

I don't know that well these companies. So, I'm not pretty sure why these two were down that much. Well, Accenture is based in Dublin, Ireland (near the UK? Maybe they have plenty of contracts there?). Priceline is based in Connecticut but maybe a large part of their earnings come from UK. Or maybe the market believes that the economy of the UK will fall apart and nobody from this country will have enough money to travel anymore. I don't know. I only know that Priceline is a great company and th PE has rarely been this low in the last 5 years.

Whatever. Invest in them or not, they're still better than 95% of companies on the market. You'll sleep well with any of these companies in the long term.

samedi 11 juin 2016

Hasta la vista, Valeant

I'm finally completely out of Valeant. With that stock, I did the worst thing: buy high and sell low.

Well, I didn't buy that high (between 110 and 160$ for my shares) but I sold my last shares pretty low (around 30$), after the last results.

I sold them lately. Even though one of the first tips I read was that one from Stephen Jarislowsky: "When it looks bad, sell your shares without hesitation, even if you may regret it later". I read that sentence maybe 8-9 years ago and I never forgot it. But I fucking did not apply it.

I'd understand if everybody leaves this blog and never come back.

At least, I'm sincere here. You won't find many analysts writing that in columns. These pretentious nobodies, like Philippe Leblanc in spend all their time writing about their good moves and giving lessons to people about how to act, how to invest, how many fucking vegetables they eat each day and all that fucking shit. Because they all fucking want to get clients and present themselves like these fucking pictures of big macs along the road: With the right light, with the right angle. With premium ingredients.

Take a look at your big mac the next time you'll be in a McDonald's. It looks fucking sad if you compare it to the pictures along the highway. Everybody has something in the closet and the worst people are, to me, the people that always want to look good. They all hide terrible secrets like sexual acne or mushrooms between the toes.

Yeah, I'm out of Valeant at a time when a lot of people believe that the company will be bought by another company. Maybe it will happen. Maybe not.

Valeant is a fucking disaster. Perhaps the price will double in the next few weeks. I don't know.

I recently saw that Francis Chou has bought a lot of shares. I dislike the moves of that man. I don't want to be associated with him even if my shares are undervalued. That guy buys cheap shit! His portfolio stinks big time.

So, maybe I'm doing a bad move here. But for my conscience, it's a good move. I prefer to look elsewhere.

Valeant will forever be in my heart as one of the biggest mistakes of my life. I have a pretty good memory. I now hate Michael Pearson forever. I'll never forget him. I hope you'll do the same.

dimanche 5 juin 2016

Gun stocks

Is it any serious investor out there that likes gun stocks?

Taking a look at, it looks like not any superinvestor is interested in the two most known gun stocks: Ruger (RGR) and Smith and Wesson (SWHC).

I've followed Ruger for maybe 5 years. I've always liked the stock on paper. The numbers are great.

But this stock is very very very linked to politics and shooting in schools. So, it's a very special stock and it seems like serious investors don't like when their stocks are too related to scandals and killings and politics. I understand that. It's not stupid at all.

Yeah, Lassonde will probably sell more and more juice, year after year. Dollarama will probably sell more and more cheap articles year after year. And what about Ruger and Smith and Wesson? Will they sell more and more guns?

Well, they don't sell something that is bought by us canadians. But in the States, it's in the constitution: everybody has the right to own guns. And many people own guns. So, it's hard to understand for a canadian, but the gun industry is linked to a right and almost a responsability for many americans.

I repeat: on paper, SWHC and RGR look great. Take a look at those numbers:

Their ROE is very high (average last 5 years = 42 for RGR and 35 for SWHC)
Their forward PE is reasonable: RGR = 17 and SWHC = 13
RGR has virtually no debt and SWHC has a decent debt
Their EPS growth is high (annual growth last 5 years = 17% for RGR and 20% for SWHC)
Their buyback is great (SWHC bought back about 16% of the float over the last 3 years)

The only problem on paper is that their results are uneven from quarter to quarter and from year to year.

But, I don't see how any of these two could go bankrupt. They're very well managed and there's not that much of competition in that field.

But fuck, this industry is so crazy. I don't know if I'll ever invest in a stock like that. But let's be clear, if a business sold any harmless shit with these numbers, I'd be a shareholder without any hesitation.