jeudi 30 juin 2016

The great challenge, 5 months later

On january 30th, I wrote an article titled "The Great Challenge" in which I picked some stocks to fight against Jason Donville.

The selection has been made on january 30th. Let's take a look at the results so far:

Donville's picks:

CGI group: -8%
Home Capital Group: 15%
Concordia Healthcare: -27%
Constellation Software: 3%
CRH Medical: 40%
Average return first 6 months of the year: 5%

Penetrator's picks:

Canadian Pacific: -3%
Valeant: -78%
Knight Therapeutics: 25%
Alimentation Couche-Tard: -8%
Allergan: -18%
Average return first 6 months of the year:  -16%

Penetrator's long shots:

Ten Peaks Coffee: -33%
Rifco: 39%
Average return for long shots: 3%

I really look like a fucking retard.

12 commentaires:

  1. I'm sure that you (and Donville) have had some extremely good years. This is not your year. Look for the type of stocks you are investing in to move sideways for a while.
    While you were challenging Donville, at the end of January, I noticed that gold had moved up about $57 in the last 30 days (but it was still down $140 for the year at the end of January).
    I guessed that gold (and silver) were starting an upward trend coming off multi-year lows. I put about $20k on the following four stocks:

    1. barrick gold
    2. endeavour mining
    3. richmont mines
    4. silver wheaton.

    I am taking on way more risk to invest in commodities style businesses that do not perform as well over time as your solid growth stocks. Nevertheless, to everything there is a season. All four of these stocks have doubled.
    I do not suggest you change your style of investing. Just avoid companies like Valeant and Concordia Healthcare that pile on debt and use very creative accounting. You will do very well with your style of investing...even though your stocks are pausing for a break.

  2. Thank you. Obviously, I agree with you, otherwise, I'd put my money elsewhere!

  3. Here are mine:
    HCG +11%
    HLF +23%
    MTY +40%
    GIB.A -8%
    WJA +11%
    Average : +15.4%.

    Give me some fucking medal.

  4. HCG, HLF, MTY, GIB.A, WJA = killer portfolio. You're getting great growth companies at prices a value investor would be proud of.

    1. I own all of those, less WJA in lieu is CRH in my portfolio. I take a more value approach to growth and diversify with a contrarian portion of about 30% of my portfolio. The first 6mths were really good for the value investor.

  5. I get a kick out of these. I never weighed in with my five picks but I have to give a shout-out to two-time because after their comments in February, I picked up Kinaxis (KXS) for +29%. After Donville's ROE Newsletter I picked up MTY. I also have owned Savaria for a 67% ride as well as CRH Medical for +20%. That being said, I bought Valeant and had my ass handed to me. If that wasn't enough, I also owned Concordia. If you guys have ever seen the 40 Year Old Virgin, watching these stocks for me was the equivalent of Steve Carrell's character getting his chest waxed.

    Lately I've been picking up positions in Badger Daylighting (BAD), Vermilion Energy (VET)in the sub 40's and Boyd Group (BYD.UN). I have a bit of cash in the TFSA I'd like to deploy - just looking for a couple of names that are smaller cap that I like. I will revisit Donville's list of emerging compounders from his ROE Newsletter in April to see if there's something on there I don't already have that I like, or pick up some more of what I already have (CRH or Tucows). Biosyent, Cara Operations and Pollard Banknote have caught my eye and I plan on doing a bit more reading on them.

  6. Last 2 years since I started DIY investing journey, I achieved around 20% of return (10% annually). Although I was more focused on highly depressed stocks (Ben Graham style) rather than high ROE growth stocks (Buffett and Charlie style) up until two-three months ago (now transitioning slowly to high ROE (with less leverage) and low PE style. During 2 years, my portfolio fluctuated crazy from 10-15% to 20% then 0% to 20% again. 6 months is too short to evaluate your performances and except valeant you weren't too bad!

    1. Yeah, Valeant killed my performance. My other picks weren't that good but not a disaster.

    2. You mentioned a while ago you're now into healthcare stocks with a great balance sheet. Outside of GUD, are there other names that pique your interest or that you're looking to add to your portfolio?

    3. American healthcare stocks: GILD and BIIB. There's also NVO (danish stock) that looks absolutely fantastic but expensive.

  7. My picks were:

    ATD.b: -8%
    GIB.a: -8%
    CCL.b: +14%
    BYD.un: +17%
    SJ: +14%

    Long shots
    RFC: +39% &
    CRH: +40%. (2 past picks of Jason)

    Average of 15,4% between January 30, 2016 & June 30, 2016 with these 7 picks... My actual gains are less than that because Couche tard & CGI are two of my biggest positions... Hopefully Couche-Tard will improve their results during the next several quarters fuelled by their recents acquisitions...

    Value Man