mardi 29 décembre 2015

EDIT: Take a look at me now: Penetrator's portfolio review

Against all odds, the Penetrator's portfolio is up about 4% this year (dividends included). It’s fucking incredible. Until I calculated it, I thought it would be down about 5%. I think that the conversion rate between US dollar and CAN dollar helped me a lot (some stocks like Gilead (GILD) had a flat return but the exchange rate dropped by about 12% between the beginning and the end of the year). 

The S&P/TSX is down about 11%, so my relative performance is a positive 15%, which is excellent in my not so humble opinion. Which reminds me a great joke I've read before. Did you know that if you got 3.14 onions, you've got opinions?

Ok, keep going with the stock market and stop these silly jokes you may say. Fuck off I add. I'm always cursing and writing CUNT in capital letters. Couldn't you just appreciate the clean break I'm giving you with this totally harmless joke?

Now, please take a look at that list: Cipher Pharma, Valeant, Rifco, Concordia Healthcare, Home Capital Group, Nobilis Health, Callidus Capital, Mallinckrodt, Portfolio Recovery. Just take a look at the shitload of stocks I’ve owned this year which did bad… It’s a fucking miracle that I’ve achieved to get a 4% yield overall.

My best performing stocks have been Constellation Software, Alimentation Couche-Tard and CGI group.I haven't got any spectacular performance with any of my stocks, except maybe for Constellation Software.

By the way, during the year, I’ve sold more than 50% of my position in Constellation Software because I was less and less comfortable with the valuation of the stock. I’m still uncomfortable with it because 30 times next year earnings seems a lot to me. But it’s a great company. Like Dollarama, Couche-Tard and Computer Modeling Group, it deserves a high valuation. But, speaking of Computer Modeling Group, I have the feeling that Constellation Software is becoming the same : A great company so highly valued that the potential for an appreciation is greatly reduced. Whatever, with 7,2% of the portfolio, it’s a reasonable position and I don't plan to sell more in the short term.

Here's my portfolio on december 29th, 2015 :

Canada (58,6%)

Concordia Healthcare : 9,5%

CGI Group : 9,2%

Valeant : 8,5%

Alimentation Couche-Tard : 8,4%

Constellation Software : 7,2%

Home Capital Group : 6,3%

Canadian Pacific : 2,9%

Callidus Capital : 2,4%

Logistec : 2,1%

Nobilis Health : 2,1%

USA (41,3%)

Gilead : 9,9%

Allergan : 7,9%

Ross Stores : 5,9%

Dollar Tree : 5,3%

Apple : 4,6%

Chicago Bridge and Iron : 4,5%

Polaris : 3,3%

dimanche 20 décembre 2015

Performance of 40 stocks from january 1st to december 18th 2015

2015 has been a crappy year. Not crappy in the way that 2008 and 2009 have been, but crappy enough to say that 2015 sucked.

I've written a list of best and worst performing stocks for 2015. I'm amazed at the huge drop of some stocks I've owned this year. Luckily, I've sold most of them before the biggest part of the drop happened. But I've lost a lot of money anyway. So I'm not so joyful about the performance of my portfolio which should be between -5% and 0% this year.

It must have been a difficult year for Donville Kent too because there's a lot of bad performing stocks among Jason Donville's usual picks. Just take a look at Valeant, Patient Home Monitoring, Home Capital Group, Pulse Seismic,  Delphi Energy... A true shit storm.

Here's a list of some canadian and american stocks. The performance of each stock is written to show how bad the year has been for many. Take note that the list only refers to stock's price from january 1st to december 18th 2015. So, for instance, Valeant's drop doesn't consider the fact that the stock was 346$ in august 5th then 94$ in november 17th.

Positive yield stocks:
Netflix: 142%
Smith and Wesson: 125%
Amazon: 114%
Constellation Software: 69%
Delta Airlines: 63%
Stella Jones: 60%
Dollarama: 33%
Alimentation Couche-Tard: 28%
CGI Group: 25%
Nobilis Health: 25%
CRH medical: 24%
Allergan: 19%
Ross Stores: 12%
Concordia Healthcare: 10%
Dollar Tree: 8%
Gilead: 8%
TJX: 1%

Negative yield stocks:
Wells Fargo: -2%
Apple: -4%
MTY Food Group: -6%
Badger Daylighting: -7%
IBM: -16%
Exxon: -16%
Carmax: -20%
Valeant: -22%
American Express: -27%
Patient Home Monitoring: -30%
Pulse Seismic: -30%
Portfolio Recovery: -39%
Sears Holdings: -41%
Biosyent: -42%
Home Capital Group: -43%
Polaris: -44%
Michael Kors: -47%
Delphi Energy: -47%
AutoCanada: -50%
Callidus Capital: -53%
Cipher Pharma: -63%
Rifco: -63%
King's College (formerly Loyalist Group): -99%

For those liking the magic formula, we now have the possibility to buy some great high ROE stocks that have low PE ratio (Apple, IBM, Valeant, Polaris, Michael Kors).

P.S. There's someone using my name on stockhouse. It's not me, obviously. I'm not writing anywhere but here.

mercredi 16 décembre 2015

Valeant going to zero

Not so long ago, in a galaxy very close, many people thought it was the end for Valeant. "Sell before it's too late because that stock is going to zero!" Then, the stock became oversold like nothing before. The stock was like a fucking jar full of AIDS.

Many fuckers out there, like some columnists or investors were very proud to tell us: "We have always said that Valeant was toxic!" I thought to myself: "Fuck you asshole. You're simply using that crazy panic to try to convince us that you're a good investor and that we should put our money in your hands."

Because it's like trying to tell us that these people are good investors and could predict huge drops. FUCK YOU. It's so fucking easy to write some shit about all the companies in which you've never invested when a panic comes out of nowhere. I could do that all the time. Each week, there's a company that goes down a lot.

But I don't have any services to sell to stupid people, so I don't need to do that.

I have to admit that I was a bit nervous when that panic happened. But I never thought one second that Valeant would be a majestic fraud. However, there was maybe a small or medium fraud in there, I was not so sure. I'm still not 100% sure.

Today, Mike Pearson, the CEO, released some guidance for Valeant. And some people are crazy enough to tell that these projections are disappointing. Disappointing regarding what? Regarding what was expected? OK, maybe a little. But regarding the actual price of the shares? Regarding that, the guidance is fucking awesome. We have a stock that is selling about 11-12 times this year's earnings and about 9 times next year earnings. You just have to check the 30% increase in EPS from 2015 to 2016 to see that that stock isn't fucking going to zero.

2015: EPS of 10,30$ per share VS EPS of 11,75$ expected
2016: EPS of 13,50$ VS EPS of about 14,30$ expected

You may dislike Valeant. You're perfectly entitled to. But these numbers show us a company that's doing well, not a company that's bleeding to death.

Don't forget that not more than one or two months ago, thousands of people were convinced that Valeant was going to zero. A lot of people tried to get some exposure during the panic and I've hated that.

I think I'm writing to them actually. Fuck you once again.

mardi 15 décembre 2015

A couple of lines on fatherhood

I love to be a father, but fuck, sometimes, I'm pissed off about all the shit I have to worry about.

My kid must put his glasses. He must hide his strongest eye 2 hours per day to exercise his weakest eye. Otherwise, he may have cross-side eyes one day and finish his life alone or worse, get an ugly cross-side eyes girlfriend.

His teacher is an old hag which seems to work in slow-mo mode. She said to me that my son had no problem to learn but he was whimsical (losing his things in his desk). She said to me that he masturbated in class. Well, at 6 years old, it's not old perverse masturbation with both hands in the pants. It's just that when he's excited (when he's laughing for instance), he tends to put his hands on his little pee-pee.

At the recommandation of his teacher, we went to see some speech therapist (orthophoniste en français) to see if my son had understanding problems. He made many exercices there and at home too, and fuck, I have to say that this shit was not bad, but how the fuck a 6 years old little boy should know how to sequence 4 images of a story with a magnet or a popcorn machine when he hasn't used or even saw any of these things in his life? The speech therapist was kind but she told us some fucking statistics about how retard my son is on some aspects and it made me mad.

Fuck you with your fucking statistics. My son knew his ABC when he was 1 year old and he now knows all the planets on the solar system and he even knows that it's raining acid on Venus. You may tell me that fucking Rain Man knew much more things and he was a fucking autistic. Yeah, right, but my son isn't a fucking retard. He's just clumsy and he has my fucking genes which means that he'll never be the football hero of his college.

Today, it was his last appointment with the speech therapist. I thought we would inherit a recommandation to consult for the long term at the low rate of 100$/hour. But, thank god, it looks OK to stop here (but to continue to practice at home).

However, the final recommandation of the speech therapist was to NOT USE IRONY WITH HIM (written in capital letters in his diary).

Fuck, irony is my life. Since he's a baby I feed him with irony. Have I ruined his childhood? How could irony be so wrong? It's how I manage to stay alive.

And still today, his fucking teacher wrote in his agenda that he lost his cisors. She wrote "his attention is very fragile" (exact words used many times by the speech therapist. That fucking bitch was only waiting to use somebody else's opinion to avoid any responsability in kids problems). Fuck you old hag, it's me that didn't put those cisors back on his schoolbag yesterday.

Oh. By the way, I should double these troubles. My girlfriend didn't have a miscarriage. She lost blood for some days. But there's a baby in that belly.

I should be father for a second time next summer.

mercredi 9 décembre 2015

Tchoo tchoo

I've always liked railroads. To me, they represent one of the best business that could exist: high barriers to entry, essential for the economy, very easy to understand... and I can't see how railroads could become obsolete.

In the past, I've owned some shares of Canadien National (CNR.TO). I liked the company and the great work of Hunter Harrisson. But the PE ratio eventually became too high VS ROE and EPS growth. So I sold my shares and went to buy some fucking shit.

Recently, I've took another look at railroads. Three of the best railroads (if not the three best) are close to their 52 weeks lowest price (the PE ratio is low too). In times like these, it may be a good time to buy something because the sector is not very popular. And it's a great sector. Not like that fucking oil and gas sector.

So, here's a quick look at three of the best railroad operators:

Canadien National (CNR.TO)

Forward PE: 16
ROE: 24
Annual EPS growth last 5 years: 14%
Share buyback: Yes
Debt: Medium
Dividend: 1,7%
I've read a couple of times that CNR was the best railroad operator in North America. I don't believe it's still the case, but this is nevertheless a great company that have been commited to shareholders for a long time.

Canadian Pacific (CP.TO)

Forward PE: 15
ROE: 27
Annual EPS growth last 5 years: 21%
Share buyback: Yes
Debt: Medium-High
Dividend: 0,8%
Canadian Pacific has never been as well managed as CNR until recently. Hunter Harrisson, former CEO of CNR didn't hesitate to betray his former company, jumping the fence to CP with the help of Bill Ackman, the guy who doesn't give a fuck about morality when it's time to make some money. The results are there. Take a look at Pershing Square results over time. It looks once again that this fucking christian morality still retains us to make money and have some pleasure in our fucking existence. Recently, CP tried to buy Norfolk Southern, an average american railroad operator. I believe a deal won't be easy. But it could be very positive for CP.

Union Pacific (UNP)

Forward PE: 13
ROE: 24
Annual EPS growth last 5 years: 25%
Share buyback: Yes
Debt: Medium
Dividend: 2,9%

Probably the best railroad company in America. The last results haven't been that great, but the company has done very well over time. It would probably be my first recommandation if anybody wanted to buy a railroad even if CP does better these days.

Whatever the fuck I'm saying, I've just bought some CP shares. I just need two sentences to do the opposite to what I've just said.

Anyway, 5 years from now, I'm pretty sure that anybody would do well with any of these three companies.