mardi 29 décembre 2015

EDIT: Take a look at me now: Penetrator's portfolio review

Against all odds, the Penetrator's portfolio is up about 4% this year (dividends included). It’s fucking incredible. Until I calculated it, I thought it would be down about 5%. I think that the conversion rate between US dollar and CAN dollar helped me a lot (some stocks like Gilead (GILD) had a flat return but the exchange rate dropped by about 12% between the beginning and the end of the year). 

The S&P/TSX is down about 11%, so my relative performance is a positive 15%, which is excellent in my not so humble opinion. Which reminds me a great joke I've read before. Did you know that if you got 3.14 onions, you've got opinions?

Ok, keep going with the stock market and stop these silly jokes you may say. Fuck off I add. I'm always cursing and writing CUNT in capital letters. Couldn't you just appreciate the clean break I'm giving you with this totally harmless joke?

Now, please take a look at that list: Cipher Pharma, Valeant, Rifco, Concordia Healthcare, Home Capital Group, Nobilis Health, Callidus Capital, Mallinckrodt, Portfolio Recovery. Just take a look at the shitload of stocks I’ve owned this year which did bad… It’s a fucking miracle that I’ve achieved to get a 4% yield overall.

My best performing stocks have been Constellation Software, Alimentation Couche-Tard and CGI group.I haven't got any spectacular performance with any of my stocks, except maybe for Constellation Software.

By the way, during the year, I’ve sold more than 50% of my position in Constellation Software because I was less and less comfortable with the valuation of the stock. I’m still uncomfortable with it because 30 times next year earnings seems a lot to me. But it’s a great company. Like Dollarama, Couche-Tard and Computer Modeling Group, it deserves a high valuation. But, speaking of Computer Modeling Group, I have the feeling that Constellation Software is becoming the same : A great company so highly valued that the potential for an appreciation is greatly reduced. Whatever, with 7,2% of the portfolio, it’s a reasonable position and I don't plan to sell more in the short term.

Here's my portfolio on december 29th, 2015 :

Canada (58,6%)

Concordia Healthcare : 9,5%

CGI Group : 9,2%

Valeant : 8,5%

Alimentation Couche-Tard : 8,4%

Constellation Software : 7,2%

Home Capital Group : 6,3%

Canadian Pacific : 2,9%

Callidus Capital : 2,4%

Logistec : 2,1%

Nobilis Health : 2,1%

USA (41,3%)

Gilead : 9,9%

Allergan : 7,9%

Ross Stores : 5,9%

Dollar Tree : 5,3%

Apple : 4,6%

Chicago Bridge and Iron : 4,5%

Polaris : 3,3%

4 commentaires:

  1. Did you hold your full positions in these all year or did you sell some when they were going up? The biggest mistake I made this year was not taking some gains. I had stocks that were up over 100% that ended the year in the negative and I hadn't sold any when they were up. I won't make that mistake again.

  2. I sold some, bought some others... I've never kept all my positions without buying or selling during a year.

  3. For my part, I had a 16,9% for 2015... Not too bad, but I am feeling the sour after taste because I was a little above the 30% mark in August... Like I did with Auto Canada in 2014, I held my Valeant shares in 2015 instead of taking part of my profits (at least on paper) when they started their slide after hitting the long snake box... I sold recently at approximately one third of the summer valuation of VRX.

    Today Jason published his ROE Reporter on his DKAM site... 4% is under their usual performance but better than the TSX (-8%)...

    As usual he recommanded 5 shares for 2016...

    Concordia HealthCare CXR [below 4x adj cash earning... but lot of debt following their F15 transaction]
    Home Capital Group HCG [5.2 x adj cash EPS and excellent track record during slowdown...]
    Constellation Software CSU [ROE = 100% and potential acquisitions]
    CGI Group GIB.A [ROE >20% & possible F16 acquisition] and
    CRH Medical CRH [ROE > 35% & 8.8x F16 Est.EPS]

    Other interesting names in his top 25 ROAE/PE... I have 7 of them in my portfolio and I am looking to add 2 to 3 names during 2016 H1...

    Go read Jason at:

    Value Man

  4. Value Man: i read the ROE reporter yesterday and I was planning to write something about it.