lundi 13 avril 2015

Portfolio review (april 13th 2015)

Things are going well so far in 2015 for the Penetrator Portfolio. I’ve had about a 20% yield since january 1st, which is excellent, following two very good years. 
At the time of this writing, I own 9 baggers in the portfolio. If you haven't read a classic book about investment yet, you have to know that a bagger is a stock that has doubled. A two bagger is a stock that has tripled and so the fuck it goes (don't know if it's a valid expression but I have the intention to use it later). 
I don't have any stock  in which I don't have faith. However, I think that Constellation Software is pretty expensive now and Couche-Tard isn't cheap too. But these are probably two of the best managed canadian companies, so quality has a price.
I look back about three years ago and things have been incredible for me at the investment level. My portfolio is up about 200% since fall of 2012. A lot is due to Jason Donville's advices, once again. But it's never enough. I still want more. I always want more. Because once you've reach the top of the stairs with a stock, you see that some stairs are there and go even higher. That's infinite. 

I'm now a starving capitalist, each day of my fucking life. 

 A few baggers still in portfolio :
Constellation Software : 5,5 bagger
Valeant : 1 bagger
Cipher Pharma : 1,5 bagger
CGI Group : almost 1 bagger
Alimentation Couche-Tard : 2,5 bagger
Concordia Healthcare : 1,3 bagger
Mallinkrodt : 2 bagger (almost) + 20% conversion $US
Dollar Tree : 1 bagger + 20% conversion $US
Ross Stores : 1 bagger + 20% conversion $US

Portfolio on april 13th 2015:
Percentage of the portfolio
Cipher Pharma
Constellation Software
Home Capital Group
CGI Group
Alimentation Couche-Tard
Concordia Healthcare
Vecima Networks
Nobilis Health
Callidus Capital
Mallinkrodt (US)
Portfolio Recovery and associates (US)
Dollar Tree (US)
Gilead (US)
Ross Stores (US)
Dorman Products (US)

13 commentaires:

  1. Formidable! Une lecture tres interessante! Cependant, how the fuck do I share this with my mom?! Any comments on

  2. Je connais un peu Amaya mais pas assez pour m'avancer beaucoup. L'industrie des jeux en ligne est controversée, comme celle des armes à deux par exemple.

    Je recommanderais certainement pas d'avoir une position de portefeuille plus élevée que 5% sur Amaya. Mais ça peut valoir le coup d'essayer avec un petit pourcentage.

    Mes moves de gambling ont jamais été tres payants et pour moi Amaya serait du gambling.

    Si tu veux une suggestion bien précise, dans mon portefeuille, ce que je rachèterais aujourd'hui, ce serait du Home Capital, du Nobilis Health pis du Gilead. Ces trois sont pas chers en fonction du PE de l'année prochaine.

    1. Merci, je vais analyser nobilis sous peu. I'm very surprised that you didn't mention cph. It looks very interesting at this price combined with the recent acquisition in the U.S. I have gild, and a lot of other donville picks as well. Did you pass on phm because it's on the venture? That's by far my best stock! I also got pounded by rfc, I laughed when I read your story.

    2. Cph serait aussi un bon choix. J'imagine que je ne l'ai pas mentionné parce qu'il occupe déjà une place importante de mon portefeuille.

      Yes, I pass on PHM because it's on the venture.

  3. Relatively speaking, CGI Group hasn't seen a lot of EPS growth but has been paying down debt (as per Donville) and could be poised to pull the trigger on an acquisition which I hope will accelerate growth in the stock price. Constellation Software has had a hell of a run through Q1 and I agree it's gotten more expensive, but it's also getting a lot more exposure as you wrote previously. Like you, I own both. I'm humming and hawing about moving a part of my position in CSU out in favor of GIB.A - seeing as we're both shareholders I thought I'd pick collect your thoughts on the idea.

  4. It depends on what is your actual percentage on each company!

    1. I feel like I need to give a disclosure here - my investing behaviour isn't necessarily responsible in that I don't hold a diverse portfolio and I understand the risks in doing so. I've had a diverse portfolio in the past and I keep coming back to the conclusion that if some stocks aren't rowing hard enough on the boat that is my portfolio, I'm throwing you overboard. My goal is to turn my TFSA into a retirement vehicle so I don't have to worry about taxation when I look to pull funds out (I worry about how I'll be taxed with my RRSP) and I need to have a substantial amount of value within the account in order to collect dividends that would make an financial impact in my life. Because I'm in the growth mode of my TFSA, I'm not satisfied with 8% returns because 8% of sweet fuck all is still sweet fuck all and call me greedy but I've done the math and by the time I get to where I want to be financially, I'll be too old to enjoy the money. You and I are on the same page in that we want financial freedom, and we want it sooner rather than later. So that being said, I am in growth stocks that want to run, and as the portfolio grows, I'll evolve it into a more diverse portfolio and become more cognizant of the dividends as I'll look to siphon those out of the account. As it stands right now, I'm in Concordia Healthcare, Constellation Software, CGI Group, Cardinal Energy, and I've been buying up Vermilion Energy at 54-55 bucks a share. Constellation is roughly 40% with CGI at 20%. I think CGI could go on a run over the remainder of 2015.

      Hell of a call on Nobilus btw and thanks for doing this blog.

    2. 40% of your portfolio on CSU?!?
      Way too much is you ask me!! Well, if your total portfolio is 5000 or 10 000$, it's not that wrong, but if you have a big portfolio, I think you should reduce your position a lot given the actual price of the stock.

  5. why the f word all the time dude? it is really hard to read your blog - and I know, you are going to crush me for this, but a smart fellow like you are doesn't need this sort of stuff :(

    1. I really enjoy using rude words in a foreign language. It makes me feel alive.

  6. Thanks for your interesting blog and congrats on your investing success. I wonder if you've considered the bear case for Callidus Capital. From an ROE perspective, it seems attractive but I have difficulty seeing how they can scale up their business given how hands on they appear to be with their debtors.

    I hold a few Amaya shares and though it has quite a bit of volatility, I think it has very good prospects. It trades rather cheaply at 13x free cash flow for a company that dominates global online poker, is deleveraging through the sale of non-core assets (Cadillac Jack, Chartwell), expanding into the US and other vertical markets (casino games, sports betting and daily fantasy sports). It's also going to be listed on the NASDAQ by the fall so there are few nice catalysts ahead.

    1. And what is your opinion on websites that do reviews on daily fantasy sports and offer the customers coupons, like e.g. Do you think that they are going to experience a "boom"?

    2. I don't have a clue. I don't have any opinion because I haven't done any research about that. You're the first person telling me about this website.