vendredi 19 décembre 2014

2013=Exceptional, 2014=Very Good, 2015= ?

Last year (2013) was an exceptional year for my portfolio. It was up about 55%.

This year (2014), my portfolio is up a little bit more than 25% (dividends excluded). After an exceptional 2013, the results of this year are way above my expectations. I've never thought that I could get these results back to back.

Until the middle of the year, I thought that 2014 would be a pretty ordinary year. Even a mediocre year for someone who thinks that a flat return is mediocre. But, in the last few months, everything went well for some of my shares and my portfolio got a nice boost.

At the time of this writing, my only real bad move of the year is Rifco for which the share price is 22% lower than my average cost. The last results of the company weren't spectacular but weren't bad either. I'm not thinking about selling my shares for now because I think that it's a great company with a very good ROE. I think the company should get better in 2015 and the share price will probably be back to a more normal level. High Arctic Energy is also down, but the whole sector of energy/natural resources is down, so it's not that much related to the company.

Here's my list of best and worst performers of the year:

Best performers
Biosyent (sold)
Alimentation Couche-Tard
Constellation Software
Cipher Pharma
Ross Stores
Mallinckrodt (previously Questcor Pharma)

Worst performers
NTG Clarity Network (sold)

And here's my Portfolio on December 19th, 2014

Canadian stocks
Cipher Pharma: 13,4%
Constellation Software: 9,7%
Valeant: 9,3%
CGI Group: 7,1%
Alimentation Couche-Tard:  7%
Rifco: 6,6%
Carfinco: 5,4%
Concordia Healthcare: 2,8%
High Arctic Energy: 1,7%

American stocks
Mallinckrodt: 7,8%
Portfolio Recovery: 5,5%
Dollar Tree: 4,3%
Gilead: 4%
Ross Stores: 3,8%
Dorman Products: 3,1%
Precision Casparts: 3,1%

Cash: 5,6%

A lot of experts are giving their pronostics for 2015. As all wise men, I don't think I'm qualified to offer pronostics about a year full of surprises (like terrorist attacks, oil price instability, epidemy, alien invasion, etc...) As a fatalistic person, I always feel that bad things are just around the corner, so I wouldn't be surprised about a drop in the markets. But most statistics show that the market is correctly evaluated. In life, most things should be evaluated from a statistic perspective (actual VS average). So, from this point of view, markets should give us a return of about 10% maybe? I don't fucking know. But it should be an okay year. If not, it should be an okay 2-3 years ahead, until markets get overvalued once again and the tower falls down once again. 

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