mercredi 9 septembre 2015

About some emails and comments

Since I've written my email adress at the right of this blog, some people have sent me some email, asking me what were my thoughts about this or this company. I've also recieved some comments on this blog, asking what was my opinion about a particular stock.

In the world of investment, the game is simple: be confident and act like you are the best at making great picks. In other words, say directly: "It's a good stock! Buy it!" or "Don't touch that with a ten foot pole!". You'll look great and you'll convince people that your homeworks have been made.

I can't do that. I would feel like a fucking peddler if I did that. I'm not a fucking expert. I'm not sure about my own choices, how could I tell my opinion about stocks which I don't own and which I don't follow closely (I don't even follow that closely some of my own stocks...).

I can see that a lot of people aren't that sure about their investment choices. It looks like some people need to be reassured when they write me a message. I understand that. But I don't feel qualified to hug you and tell you that you made a great decision.

Let's look at this recent email that I've recieved.

I like your blog.

What does Donville Kent think about FOSL? RoE seems high (>20%). CEO doesn't take cash compensation and owns 10%. Has grown EPS at a very good rate for the past 10 years. Market thinks watches will go out of fashion.

1- I don't have an opinion about Fossil (FOSL). Well, I have a tiny opinion, but I've never been interested in that company. I may have an opinion about maybe 100 companies. Other than that, I don't follow everything out there.
2- How the fuck could I know what is the opinion of Donville Kent about FOSL!?!? I've never read anything about that company from the mouth of Jason Donville. Maybe he has an opinion, but I'm not his agent or a relative. I don't even know his opinion about Google, Apple or any other US blue chip. He doesn't talk about american stock, so I just know what is written on I don't represent anybody else than myself and sometimes, I'm not even comfortable to represent myself.
3- Your email says a lot of what I look when I check a company (ROE, EPS growth, insider positions...). You have a part of the answer with these metrics. Except for that, it's a question of moat and I don't really think that Fossil has a big moat, but I may be wrong. I'm not a fashion guy.

In retrospect:

You surely would have liked to read something else, but one of the greatest quotes in the history of humanity is that one from "Thus spoke Zarathustra" (Friedrich Nietzsche): "I wouldn't want to be part of any group that would want me as their leader. Leave me now and I'll be back only when you will all be gone".

It's not the exact words, but the idea is something like that. 

In my opinion, it means that nobody deserves to be blindly followed. 

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