lundi 19 octobre 2015

Latest top picks (october 19th, 2015)

Us, canadians, will get a new government tonight. It'll sure be a liberal government after 10 years of a conservative government. I'm a bit sad, because except for being crazy people with far west values, conservatives were the best ones when it was time for economics and measures to help middle and higher classes (something that doesn't happen very often in Canada and even less in the province of Quebec).

So, what will happen with the TFSA or CELI (as we say in french)? It will probably be back to 5000 or 5500$. And maybe it will be deleted. Fuck. I think that this measure was probably the best that was initiated in Canada for the last 20 or 30 years. Maybe the best measure since confederation (governments usually create things for taxation purposes, not to allow people to get richer).

Well, fuck all that, we've got to get on with these. Gotta compete with the wily japanese.

It's always time for a Pink Floyd sentence. And it's even more always time to come back to a Jason Donville's appearance on television. And tonight, Jason was on BNN. His three top picks were three stocks that I own: Valeant, Concordia Healthcare and Nobilis Health.

First of all, thank you Jason for pumping my shares. It's almost certain that Concordia and Nobilis will be up a lot tomorrow. However, Valeant may not be impacted because the market cap is much too high.

I share the optimism of Jason Donville for Valeant. Have you seen their results released today? They were excellent. I can't see how anybody could say that those were bad results. Like Jason, I'm pretty sure that the stock will be much higher a year from now (I'd guess it will be at least 350$).

Concordia is perceived by many many many people as a junior Valeant. If Valeant gets hit, Concordia usually gets hit. The stock is down like crazy these days. I think it should be at last twice this price and yeah, like Jason said tonight, it may very well be bought by a larger company at this price. For myself, I added a lot to my position recently (maybe 35-40% more).

Nobilis Health has been hit pretty bad by a negative article on Seeking Alpha. In a few words, the article told that this company buys cheap (mediocre) hospitals that don't return much money. I'm not so sure about the accuracy of the article, but as I said before, I doubt more and more about small caps. So I don't think I'm in Nobilis for the long term. My position isn't that big, but I ask myself some questions about this company. Not negative questions, just questions related to the small cap aspect. I however have to say that I believe much more in Nobilis Health than I believe in Patient Home Monitoring (PHM.V).

To conclude, I don't know if you read some articles that I wrote in the summer of 2014. Just take a look at the last one, for instance. In this article, I wrote that:

1 appearance out of 6 would give us three top picks that showed great results.
2 appearances out of 6 would give us two or three top picks that showed great results.
6 appearances out of 6 would give us at least one top pick that showed great results.

We never know, but tonight, I'd guess that Jason may get results that were above is average results. In other words, I'd guess that at least two of his top picks will be much higher at the same time next year.

9 commentaires:

  1. I bought more Concordia this morning and then it dropped another 20%. Geez.

  2. I have to think seasonality has a part in all of this. I'm in Cxr too and am just sitting on it. stocks have followed 'sell in May' so I expect a good rebound.

  3. Seasonality? I'd rather say that it's the classic story: industry which is out of favor. It happened with credit cards, it happened with oil and gas, it happened with Apple and now it's happening with almost every healthcare stock out there.


  5. The link is from Bloomberg's Cory Johnson and doesn't look kindly upon Valeant. Notice that Jason appears on BNN with no notes or laptop like many others, just a brilliant mind.

  6. Donville takes earnings at face value. If the Citron fraud allegations are true Valeant and, by extension Concordia, are toast.

  7. Why is concordia toast? It is a seperate company from Valeant.

    1. Complete Medical Homecare is owned by Concordia. On their website it states:
      Concordia Healthcare will utilize the Specialty Pharmacy within Complete Medical Homecare to distribute some of its specialized/orphan drugs.

      Press Release today:
      All of Concordia’s products are distributed through the traditional distributor model. Concordia utilizes Cardinal Health as its main third party logistics provider and does not use specialty pharmacies to sell its products.

      Valeant crashed today because of this issue.