jeudi 21 juillet 2016

Don't fuck with Hirsch?

Some people seem to believe that Veronika Hirsch even better than Jason Donville with stocks selection. 

Well, she was on BNN yesterday so let's take a look at some of her suggestions (I'll add a tiny comment to each selection):

Top picks:

A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund (A payout ratio of about 95%? That's crazy. I can't touch that kind of business.)
MacDonald Dettwiler (good company but it had some difficulties in the recent past).
iShares  S&P/TSX Global Gold (I have never touched gold and I don't intend to). 


Stella Jones (good company but expensive and not so high ROE).
Tricon Capital Group (great growth but so-so ROE).
Trevali Mining Group (is it really a serious investor that wants to invest in mining?)
Uni-Select (super great growth but poor ROE).

Good opinion:

Alimentation Couche-Tard (terrific company, probably in the top 5 or even top 3 in Canada).
Badger Daylighting (good company but not so effective for the last 2-3 years).
Boyd Group (good company but not so great numbers: a lot of leverage).
CCL Industries (great company but too expensive).
Dollarama (probably the best company in Canada in my opinion. But too expensive).
Enbridge (not interested in oil/gas companies).
Gibson Energy (a historical payout of more than 100%, What is wrong with you Veronika?)
Alphabet (good company, a monopoly, but expensive and not so high ROE)

I'm probably wrong because Hirsch is surely a better investor than me. But, fuck, I really don't see a lot of great stocks in that fucking selection. The three top picks look pretty average to me. I don't agree with maybe 80% of her selection.

We're not soul mates.

I'll stick with Donville. 

7 commentaires:

  1. Btw, Veronika's last year picks were:
    Boyd group (BYD.un) : + 21,63%
    CCL (CCL.b): + 30,68%
    Manuvie Life: -8,85

    Avg +14,5%

    Better than a huge bunch of investors... Also, keep in mind she is still keeping approximately 50% of her Canadian Focus fund in CASH... She is waiting better prices...

    We did not see Jason since a long time!

    Have a nice week-end,


    1. Yeah, I know about her great returns. However, the quality of her selection isn't obvious.

  2. I'd love to buy Dollarama and Constellation Software. Their R.O.E. numbers are absolutely amazing. Nobody deploys and compounds capital in Canadian Business as well as Larry Rossy at Dollarama and Mark Leonard of Constellation Software. HOWEVER, when a stock goes for 30 to 60 times earnings, it's just too expensive.
    I think Veronika Hirsch is going to beat Donville's returns over the next couple of years. I think Francis Chu will too. A monkey throwing darts at the stock pages of Northern Miner (penny stocks in mining) will beat Jason Donville this year by a huge amount. Great companies are not necessarily great stock buys at this stage of the economic cycle (7 year bull market winding down). Terrible companies may be ridiculously under-valued (the commodities and mining companies are coming off multi year bear markets). A distinction has to be made between a great company and a great stock.

  3. I think Veronica's advice is decent. I prefer Christine Poole's and of course Doneville's picks are my favorite. Maybe he won't do well this year, but over the next 10, I still believe that he will outperform the market.

    I noticed Jason hasn't been on BNN since March? That seems longer than usual.

  4. The July edition of the Donville Kent newsletter is now posted on their website. His "final thoughts" are:

    "After beating the market for eight years in a row, we find ourselves trailing the market at mid-year by a significant margin for the first time since we started in 2008. However, we feel we have repositioned the portfolio intelligently and Q3 is off to a good start. Keep your fingers crossed. I am optimistic for the balance of the year."

    It's probably a good thing that Jason has not been giving advice to the masses lately. He should be ashamed of himself for recommending garbage like Concordia Healthcare (now Concordia International) to the masses. It's very easy for a non-professional to get suckered in to investing in Concordia. There's no excuse for a professional with even basic accounting skills falling into that trap.

    1. I agree. Include Patient Home Monitoring with this. I'm shocked how many "professionals" got suckered into Michael Dalsin's pitch.

  5. I never understood that interest for PHM too. Almost all Donville's worst moves could be considered as risky moves in the first place.