mercredi 16 novembre 2016

Brexit and Trump VS the market

Until now, the Trump election has been positive on the market. Nonetheless, I've reduced some of my positions to stay ready for some abrupt movement. 

I think nobody could disagree with me: Donald Trump will surely say or do something that will make people nervous in the next months. Otherwise, we'll learn some crazy stuff about his past or his lifestyle. Some kind of plot twist like in "Chinatown" (the movie with Jack Nicholson made in 1974).

Please note that, usually, when I'm sure about something, the opposite happens. 

Talking about weird stuff, for instance, if we learn that Donald Trump smokes crack, like Rob Ford, there will probably be some manifestation on the streets. And maybe that Trump will get bumped. And then the market will go down.

Like many people said, Trump is like another Brexit. And, to understand what it could do on the market, let's go back in june. After Brexit was voted, on june 23th 2016, Priceline (PCLN) went down a lot. Here's the selling price of the shares:

1390$ on june 23, 2016.
1186$ on june 27, 2016.
1578$ on november 8, 2016.

If you'd buy PCLN on june 27th and kept it until november 8th, you would have had a 33% return. That's exactly what I wanted to do, but I didn't have a fucking token left at the time.

I've written about that stock before. It's a great stock with a good/great ROE, great balance sheet, good growth and the leader of the travel industry. I believe that, when Brexit was voted, people thought that air travel was going to be affected, like if Brits wouldn't travel anymore. Sometimes, people aren't more intelligent than chicken.

Let's forget PCLN, but let's think about a similar company with great numbers and a high valuation (CCL Industries, Constellation Software, Alimentation Couche-Tard, etc). I don't know if one of these will be hurt by Trump's politics. But I'm sure that a couple of great stocks will be affected by his wall, his protectionism or something else. The best stocks to buy in corrections are probably the 20-22 forward PE ratio stocks going down to 17-18 forward PE ratio.

So, you better start to follow a lot of stocks. The next year will be full of thrill. 

3 commentaires:

  1. Maybe we should continue to just try to buy good stocks and dont care about Trump and about the market...

  2. I agree with David,
    let's not worry too much about the moods of the market and Trump.


  3. If you own stock in companies that have strong balance sheets, a mountain of cash, and who grow and compound by acquiring other companies, then you want the market to go down. It offers them an opportunity to buy out other companies at very good prices.