mercredi 2 novembre 2016

Don't fuck with Donville-les-Bains

That's it. I simply can't praise Jason Donville's work anymore:

1- His bad moves (Valeant, Concordia Shitcare, Delphi Energy, Patient Home Monitoring, Directcash Payments, Pulse Seismic, Biosyent when the stock was at 12$ and many others) no longer compensate for his good moves (Constellation Software, Paladin, CGI Group, CRH, MTY Food Group and a few others);
2- A large large chunk of his portfolio was invested in Valeant and Concordia, two of the worst stories in Canada in the recent history. Both CEOs destroyed an incredible amount of value in less than a year which is quite a shitty achievement;
3- Working with adjusted metrics made absolutely no sense. Donville looked at Valeant and Concordia using adjusted ROE of 20 or 40. Same thing for many others like PHM and CRH. Adjusted metrics create an illusion of profitability and performance when no money is made. Even when earnings are negative;
4- Last year, Jason Donville recommended Valeant as a top pick and went to BNN defending Valeant against Citron Research. Then, a few days or weeks later, he sold almost all his shares. When I discovered it, it made me pretty upset;
5- Now that things don't go well for Donville Kent, Jason Donville remains hidden, chosing not to face the heat.

I still think that Jason Donville is a good guy. He's also a good analyst. But surely not an incredible analyst. While most analysts are average in a consistent way, Donville has been a guy of extremes: some terrible picks and some great picks.

I'll still follow him and his picks. But I'm not a devoted fan anymore...

So I went on the Internet, looking to recycle the name of this blog with another Donville. I don't want to start another blog, transfer all the archives and try to convince people to go on another blog. It'll be long and complicated and I don't have that much free time with my two kids, my job, the bus and all that fucking modern life shit.

I couldn't find anything else than Donville-les-Bains, (Donville-the-baths) a small city in Normandie. It means absolutely nothing, but I know I'll never be disappointed by it, regarding investment.

So, this name should remain.

14 commentaires:

  1. Everybody is a genius when the market keeps going up year after year after year. Then the bear comes out of hibernation and we all look pretty stupid.

    I have a feeling that my last remaining share of Constellation Software may one day become worth more than the rest of my portfolio combined. Most stocks are having a hard time lately.

  2. Donville was never that great of an investor. His returns were always skewed by his timing of starting the fund at the bottom of the market (88% return in 2009) and then of course constellation software which was a big factor in his big years (50% in 2013). But overall, if you take those two factors out of the picture, he's an okay investor and his returns are shit at best. Francois Rochon who I believe you've mentioned however has consistently blown the shit out of donville's ass without any idiotic blowup positions (well valeant, but he got out early). I think you should mention his stuff more recently.

  3. I think it’s important to remember that these guys that come on BNN’s Market Call are not investing Gods. There human beings like everyone else. Someone mentioned that Donville started his fund at a very opportune time and it’s true he did. On September 2014 the adv/dec line (NYSE) made a double top after a steady uptrend that went on for years. The market was signalling a distribution top that would take place over the next 18 months. Who knows, maybe its still going on. We’ll see.

    I think the bottom line here it’s not the guy’s fault on Market Call that his picks didn’t work out. No one put a gun to anyone’s head and made them invest in anything they didn’t want too. The do it yourself investor at home executed the keystrokes that enabled him/her to buy the said equity. The fault is not in others but in ourselves. The Market is a devious animal who will seek out and exploit your weaknesses. The market in its time has certainly exploited my own.

  4. I agree it's definitely not donville's fault for those that follow him blindly into most of his positions. The point I was trying to make is that people are/were following him due to his great record over the almost past decade. Now take the two factors I mention out of the equation and his overall performance and stock selections has been average at best. Most hedgies have been having a terrible time lately so i'm not just trying to pick on donville. But his picks have always been quite extremes, either great or downright ugly. I just hope people do their due diligence before just following the guy. But since he's in hiding he's probably doing alot of BNN watchers a favour by not recommending anything.

  5. Of course, Donville is not reponsible for other people's mistakes. It's absolutely not the point.

  6. Has Donville stopped writing his ROE Reporter newsletter? This newsletter was being put out since early 2008. There is no October issue out. I guess the results are so bad that they do not need to be publicized right now. It could also be a sign that healthcare stocks (donville's favourite sector in this aging society of ours) have bottomed.

    1. Yup. I have been waiting for it. Hopefully donville comes back as I still find the newsletter entertaining to read regardless of his recent performance.

  7. Maybe Donville can be canada's version of ackman :P

  8. Donville letters come in one month after the date... So the monthly "Oct" letter should come out early Nov - so it is due now but not yet late.

    His absence from BNN besides his bad performance I suspect is mostly due to his fans being closed to new investments - so he does not have to market himself anymore.

    He normally has not been afraid to admit his errors and face the heat for his pics. But that was when it had small impact to his perf. His macro call on Heath Care VRX, CXR, PHM and lack of GUD (who now may repurchase Paladin!!) have destroyed a lot of wealth. I would like to hear his current assessment of CXR. I am sure he gave up on it as he did VRX. But interested to know how and when he claimed to have dumped and how he will improve his processes going forward. But sure we will get this answered though.

    1. dimanche 31 juillet 2016
      ROE reporter - July 2016 (EDIT)
      Some people might have read it, but the last number of ROE reporter is out.//

      The July issue was out before the month of July ended. WE had a blog entry about the July issue dated July 31st.

      I think Donville has taken too much of a beating to want to write about it. I hope I'm wrong.

  9. I may be wrong but in the recent past, all ROE reporter were out before the end of the month when it was due.

    So, for october, it adds to the fact that Donville keeps hiding.

    1. Earnings out for Concordia today and the stock is down another 37%. In american money the stock goes for $2. do not hold your breathe for that October ROE reporter. Donville is hiding under a rock somewhere.

  10. Trump just gave Donville an olive branch to return to BNN and promote healthcare stocks. I always enjoyed Donville's end of year appearance.

  11. Jason is becoming quiet to Public investors:

    "Please note that as of October 2016, our quarterly letters are only available to Donville Kent clients"...

    He is no longer invite (or he declined!) on Market Call neither. Maybe he was not happy with last year picks, or some investors from DKAM Funds do not want to see him sharing "his secrets" anymore...

    He is a good communicator, a good investor, and a good capitalist entertainer... Hope he is gonna change his minds soon! He was so funny sometimes...Especially with Mark Buntin!