mercredi 9 novembre 2016

The Trump effect

Yesterday, like almost everybody on earth, I said to myself: "What the fuck is happening?" when I saw that Donald Trump was going to win the US election.

How could a guy say everything that he shouldn't say in politics and still get elected? I really don't understand. Usually, I tend to like to go against the masses in popular taste, but this time, come on, the guy is ignorant, vulgar and shows no qualifications for diplomacy. And he has the worst hair in the history of politics.

Around 10 PM, when Trump was almost sure to get the job, I said to myself that today would be a great day for bargains on the market. Because Trump is an unpredictable guy in the bad sense of the word and the market hates unpredictable events/people.

This morning, I took a look at pre-market prices and I saw that many healthcare stocks were on the rise. I mean on a serious rise. After looking at a few stocks, I realized that Hillary was an important part of the pressure on healthcare stocks.

Oh yeah. That bitch said she was going to protect the american people against unjustified healthcare price rises. And it looks like the market came to believe that Hillary was going to reduce the earnings of many healthcare stocks (or at least reduce the growth in earnings).

Fuck you Hillary.

The only stocks that are down a lot are some auto parts stocks (Linamar and Magna) and, to a larger extent, gun stocks like Smith and Wesson and Ruger that are down a lot (about 15%).

It may be the moment to buy these stocks.

Let's take a look at the unbelievable Trump effect on the market:

Healthcare stocks
Celgene: 11%
Allergan: 9%
Biogen: 8%
Pfizer: 7%
United Therapeutics: 7%
Valeant: 7%
Gilead: 6%
Eli Lilly: 6%
Jazz Pharma: 6%

Finance stocks
Bank of the Ozarks: 7%
Bank of America: 6%
Goldman Sachs: 6%
Wells Fargo: 5%
JP Morgan: 5%

Auto parts/gun stocks
Magna: -4%
Linamar: -5%
Smith and Wesson: -15%
Sturm and Ruger: -14%

2 commentaires:

  1. Trump Effect:

    1. He's not going to interfere with drug companies and put pressure like Hillary to control prices.
    2. He's not taking away or limiting americans' right to buy guns (so there is no need to rush out and buy guns before hillary makes it harder or illegal to own certain guns.
    3. Gold shot up about $50 per ounce when markets first realized he could win. By the next day, the gold price was back to normal. On the other hand, BASE METALS are shooting up. Copper price is at a 15 month high. The market is telling us that Trump loves to build shit and will spend a shit load on building infrastructure.
    4. Banks will do better if Trump builds huge infrastructure and maybe gets inflation up. The banks do not fear more regulation. The market sees bank profits going up with Trump.

  2. Thank you Trump. That fucking wall will create lots of jobs.