jeudi 5 janvier 2017

Evolution VS your portfolio

My god, the last post has been a fucking hit. Everybody across Canada seems to have read it.

It's my Reckless so far. You know, every artist has a Reckless. Bryan Adams had a Reckless in 1984 and it was his biggest hit. So, that boring post is my Reckless. 

Thanks to everybody for your contribution. It was very interesting and sometimes strange to see your picks. Nice discussions in the comment section too. I'm beginning to like and even love some of you. We should meet in a spa or a sauna someday.

Which brings me to another kind of social gathering. Have you been to Boxing Day? I know I'm a little late about that topic, but this year, in the Quebec City area, the boxing day was very quiet. I went to a few stores and in some places, it looked like a friday at 6 PM.

What happened? Was it Amazon's fault?

We've heard about Amazon for many years now. The investor's day transcripts of Sequoia Fund are full of references about "brick and mortar" stores that should or should not be affected by Amazon. Well, this year, it looked like everybody bought online instead of in those "brick and mortar" stores.  Was it different in Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Yellowknife? Maybe it was just here that  something happened...

Another big change that's happening is related to electric and self-driving cars. Will they destroy Exxon, Chevron, Couche-Tard and Casey's? Will they destroy insurance companies because there'll be no more accidents?

Have you thought about your portfolio versus these changes? Are you protected? Should you be protected? Do you understand what I'm talking about? Have you reached a point of non-return in existentialism making you say "So what?" about everything?

Well, for myself, I don't see a lot of impact to my portfolio, with these probable changes. Maybe on Couche-Tard. Maybe on Ross Stores. Actually, they both look like two of my most solid investments. But there may be some threat that's appearing...

Except for that, I don't know. What's your opinion? 

9 commentaires:

  1. Interesting that you ask about self driving car, I read this blog post yesturday on that topic, definitively worth a read :

    Something that we are much more closer (in my mind) is everything about fintech, only thing I don't know is the regulation, will it stop the fintechs ? Or are the big going to use that king of technology ? I'm not sure , but it gets me wary about investing in banks.

  2. Couche-tarde will welcome electric cars. As long as the use the current roads and highways infrastructure, people will need to stop for bathrooms, snacks, juice up the car battery etc.

    1. Yeah, but a big part of their earnings comes from gas selling.

    2. Agreed. 40% of gross profits according to their investor presentation. Toyota thinks gas-fueled cars en-masse won't be off the the road until 2050 at the earliest. Plenty of time to adjust.

  3. This is an excellent blog entry. Of course, it cannot be your reckless. That was the previous blog entry. But there's a saying courtesy of a former CEO of Intel: only the paranoid survive.

    Never mind the investments of people crazy enough to invest in a sulfur mine in tibet or thinking asbestos will make them rich. Just think of Warren Buffett and his wide moat investing. Look at coca cola. Could you have imagined that bottled water would sell as much as soft drinks? That coca cola and the ten or more teaspoons of sugar in a single can would be considered really bad for you? People would pay good money to drink water in bottles? LOL. How about Buffett's great investment in the washington post. Today, newspapers need to be saved from extinction by philanthropists like the owner of Amazon. Many daily newspapers have started looking like pamphlets or they deliver once a week and the rest of the time you have to get the digital version online.
    I worry about brick and mortar stores. I can sit at home and get books and music and so much other stuff delivered to people down the street or thousands of miles away. That's all I did for Christmas. I was not going to freeze, struggle to find parking and wait in line to pay with a bunch of people in front of me.
    For decades, the biggest oil companies were among the safest investments. Now, we wonder about electric cars and alternate sources of power.

  4. 100% of my Holiday purchases were online this year. Some big items too - a hot tub and a skierg. I will still stop by a Couche-tarde location as part of my daily routine whether I drive a gas or electric vehicle or the vehicle drives itself. I too, am more concerned about some of the bricks and mortar retailers.

  5. I quess I know 1000's of people.I know one person with an electric car.I think the "hype" is overblown.
    You are not getting my Couche-tarde shares anytime soon.

  6. My take on Couche-tarde.

    I do 700 miles a week driving. From my perspective, Couche tard doesn't compete with Amazon. Coz most of the drivers just stop by the Convenience store to fill the tank and buy water, snacks and move on. No one is going to order online for driving purposes. Even if electric car come as a reality, one will still need stores in middle of nowhere in highway to buy canady, water, soda; may be you need stations to recharge your battery instead of filling gas.