jeudi 12 janvier 2017

Portfolio review - January 12th, 2017

How do I start the year? Have I bullshited you with my picks for 2017, having few of them in my portfolio?
I don't think so. Here's my actual portfolio:
Alimentation Couche-Tard : 8,1%
CGI Group : 7,1%
Tucows : 6,7%
Constellation Software : 6,5%
Linamar : 5,3%
Hardwoods Distribution : 4,1%
Knight Therapeutics : 3,8%
Stella Jones : 3,1%
Ceapro : 1,3%
United Therapeutics : 6,2%
Ross Stores : 6%
Bank of the Ozarks : 5,3%
Biogen : 4,8%
Novo Nordisk : 4,2%
Gilead : 3,9%
Dollar Tree : 3,7%
Lithia Motors : 3,6%
Disney : 3,1%
Mohawk Industries : 2,9%

Cash : 10,1%
Average portfolio ROE : 32%
Average portfolio forward PE : 16
Average portfolio Beta : 0,8

As you can see, I own every pick I've chosen for 2017 except for LKQ. That stock is interesting and I’ll probably buy it sooner or later. But the market is pricey and I’ve decided to wait for a correction before buying anything (except if there’s a special event for a particular stock).
You may say : "If you like the stock now, but it now. There’s always an occasion in the market. You should always be fully invested. BLAH BLAH BLAH. Yeah, you’re right. But I think that occasions are easier to find when the entire stock market is down instead of only a particular stock.
There’s always someone giving me these kind of lessons in the comment section. But nobody is giving me lessons about my unusual sexual comments, which indicates that most of you are fucking perverts. You look like boring guys on the outside: very cartesian and talking about margins, ratios, cash flows and all that shit.
But when the sun goes down, you probably all fuck goats and put hamsters in your ass. 

11 commentaires:

  1. What are you guys using to track your stock portfolio results, get financial stats on your stocks, and to screen for stocks that meet your criteria? I just noticed that Yahoo Finance has made some changes lately.

  2. I track 65 different stocks on google finance. If I want to delve into details, I go to the platform in which I do my trading. If I'm curious on historical statistics, I go to Morningstar. I also pay 15 bucks for the raw data provided by MoneySense when they put out their Top 200 issue in December.

    Penetrator: Generally speaking people are deviants at heart. I think the more structure, rules and expectations an individual has on them, the more they will seek a vice, whether that be working out, booze, drugs, gambling, goats or hamsters. I find myself trusting people that are more open about what makes them a bit weird because nobody is clean. If somebody portrays themselves as being absolutely pure, I assume they have a freezer full of dead hookers in their basement.

    Some Friday afternoon musings here...

    Open question: I suspect Trump will lift the Federal ban on sports betting and to allow states to legalize sports betting through its licensed facilities. When this happens, what is the best way for us to make money?

    I'm not an owner of Disney stock so I can't speak to their vulnerability to ESPN. In saying that, I think ESPN is in a world of trouble. They have been hemorrhaging subscriptions over the past couple of years and in the next 5 years, I think the amount of revenue it generates will be a fraction of what it generates now. The pillars are crumbling. Will this be a boat anchor for Disney? Owners of DIS would (or should) know better than I. In the next decade we'll see a revolt against cable companies and the amount we pay. The only reason I have cable is because I like to watch live sports and I'm waiting for Twitter or Facebook or Google to allow for pay per view games. Penetrator wrote the post about brick and mortar stores and whether or not they'll be around much moving forward because of alternatives. I'll be very curious to see what our television service looks like in the next decade because society is moving toward a point where they don't see the point in paying for channels they don't watch. They'd prefer to download or stream the content they watch. The end result will be a massive change in the amount companies will pay for viewing rights of Monday Night Football, etc, and the advertisement revenue they take in. In the bigger picture, the amount we have to pay for a ticket, the amount athletes get paid - all of that bullshit - will change when the cable revenue changes. Anyway, food for thought with regards to DIS.

    1. Right, there's something with ESPN but the rest of the business is doing well. The parks and the studios will continue to do well or even very well in the future, in my opinion.

      Anyway, Disney had rarely been as cheap as in 2016. The reason is clearly ESPN.

  3. I find the language on this blog to be beyond disgusting.
    I would never recommend this site to anybody because I would not want them to know I read it.
    I am not sure of the purpose unless it is to drive people away.
    I guess there is a lot of pressure with people expecting you to say something intelligent.

    1. It looks like I made you sad and/or angry with my comment on Valeant.

      Yeah, the language I use isn't nice and I'm sorry to learn that you don't like it. You're surely not alone. I even find that I go too far sometimes. But it's my blog and it's my hamster in a way... If you don't like it, 99% of the usual blogs and websites about finance use a much more adequate level of language.

    2. I know that penetrator sense of humour is not for everybody. Most financial blogs are about as entertaining as watching paint dry or grass grow. This guy makes me laugh. The only thing that makes me cringe is realizing that I now have 3 of the same stocks on the canadian side of my portfolio as penetrator. This will not end well. lol. It's not that Penetrator is a bad's that he is unlucky. I'd rather be lucky than good.
      Today I took a stab at Fairfax Financial and Visa. Watch them go down. Making money was so much easier when I invested in crap like some mining company with a big hole in the ground and management so stupid they could not run a dairy queen ice cream stand.

    3. Yeah, you should stay away from me. But there's a big difference between this year and last year: I don't own negative ROE stocks anymore (Valeant, Concordia and Allergan).

  4. Hi Penetrator,

    Just wondering how to look at valuation for Alimentation... I hear it has an incredible management team, but is there a way to look at it as a cheap stock? Or do you see it maintaining its multiple going forward and earnings continuing to grow quickly? Thx.

    1. First, earnings are reported in US dollars, just like Constellation Software. So if you take a look at ATD-B, don't forget it.

      ATD hasn't been cheap for a while but quality has a price and I don't think anybody would say that this stock is not one of the top 5 quality stocks in Canada.

    2. Will it maintain it's multiple and will earnings continue to grow quickly? Alain Bouchard still wants the company to double. I'm sure he'll do it. Probably not in 2017 and not in 2018. But who knows for 2019 and 2020.