mercredi 15 février 2017

Ce que les soi-disant meilleurs achètent

I don’t know why I’m doing this, because I don’t trust most of these superinvestors anymore. Isn’t it strange to realize that people managing 4 or 5 billion dollars for their clients don’t have more skills than you and I… who manage only a few hundred thousand dollars.  
Those guys invest in some shitty stocks, but they make public declarations to convince the lemmings to buy the same thing as them, thus creating a demand for what they bought. You control the media, you control the people. They have at least understood that and it compensates for their very average skills.
Ok, let’s see what those averageinvestorsmanaging5billionsdollarsormore have done during the last quarter. Let’s begin with my pal, Bill Ackman, the guy who knew « very well » what he was doing with Valeant and who knew « very well » what to do when the crisis with that stock happened.
Bill Ackman likes complicated things. That’s why he increased his stake in Shitpole Mexican Grill by 420% during the last quarter. That fucking stock now represents about 18,4% of Ackman’s portfolio (more than 1 fucking billion dollars). Have you seen the sales of Shitpotle over the last years? They’re free falling.
There wasn’t an easier investment to think about or what? After the incredible Valeant fiasco, why didn’t he looked for something quiet safe? In other words, after the roulette, chosing one specific number over 36 numbers, why did he still picked only one number instead of a colour?  
Speaking about Valeant, the stock represents now about 4,5% of Pershit Square. The stake of Valeant has been reduced by 16% (16% of all VRX shares have been sold during the last quarter).
Please, dear reader, don’t ever go back read the archives of this blog to see that I once praised Ackman as a good investor.  I can’t live with the fact that I wrote that. If I could turn back time, if I could find a way, I’d take back those words that I wrote, and I’d look more credible…
Now, let’s take a look at Buffett. 
Buffett seems to like Apple because the stock now represents 4,5% of Berkshire (number of shares held increased by 277% over the last quarter!).
Buffett also bought much more airlines stocks. The stake of airlines in BRK is now more significant (but not major). The stake in Delta Airlines (now 2% of BRK) has been increased by 848%. The stake in Southwest Airlines (LUV) is a new buy and represents 1,5% of BRK (which is  not that much in percentage but nonetheless represents a lot of money in absolute numbers).
Finally, representing both about 1,4% of BRK, there’s American Airlines (increased by 109%) and United Continental (increased by 538%).
Carl Icahn, one of the investors liking the more the limelight increased his stake in Herbalife by 15%. The stock now represents about 4,8% of his holdings. Hertz has been increased by 126%. The stock represents 2,8% of the holdings. Is Herbalife a pyramidal scheme? I don’t know, but I’ve learned to stay away from potential scandals. Icahn, seems to think that he can put a couple of hundreds of million dollars in a possible scandal. I don’t think that’s clever. 
As last transactions by Sequoia Fund haven’t been released yet (my favorite fund to follow), let’s complete with David Einhorn.  That guy is a very active investor, from quarter to quarter. I’m suspicious about that. The guy buys lots of shares of a specific stock one quarter, sells lots of the same stock the next quarter, buys back later, etc. It’s not what I’m expecting from a professional investor. But his picks aren’t that bad in my opinion.
During the last quarter, Einhorn increased his stake in Apple by 12%. That stock now represents 14% of his holdings.  Mylan is now 7% of his holdings (increased by 35%), Voya Financial is now 4,9% (increased by 15%) and, finally, Rite Aid is now 3,5% (increased by 52%). 
Did these informations help you? I hope not.
I hope you can make your own judgment on what is interesting on the stock market.

7 commentaires:

  1. The giant money managers that inspire my trust right now would be sequoia fund and (believe it or not) Caisse de Depot.

    Here's a peek at Sequoia holdings:

    here's the caisse de depot holdings:

    The Caisse is especially fond of CGI and the big banks, big oil, and big insurance companies. Sequoia loves Berkshire, Mastercard, Mohawk, O'Reilly, Fastenal and Constellation Software.

  2. The top 10 buys last Q shown in Home page of Dataroma is also interesting.

    Top 10 buys last qtr ( Q4 2016 ) i
    AGN - Allergan Plc
    AAPL - Apple Inc.
    V - Visa Inc.
    MYL - Mylan NV
    WFC - Wells Fargo
    TEVA - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.
    FB - Facebook Inc.
    CVS - CVS Health Corp.
    GOOG - Alphabet Inc. CL C
    ZBH - Zimmer Biomet Holdings

    So, basically, the "Pros" favors financials & pharma and the recently hot stock Apple. These pros, as a group, seems to need many pairs to short-sighted glasses because they're either share at the screen too often or too old.

  3. Actually people who manage only a few hundred thousand dollars have a huge advantage over managers who have portfolios in the billions of dollars. This was nicely explained by Joel Greenblatt in his great book on special situation investing, ‘You can be a Stock Market Genius.’

    Once the assets under management get too big these guys basically become the market. Buffet himself has said, ’it’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million.’ A manager running a small fund can fish in a small pond where the big guys cannot go.

    1. I am a little guy who fishes in smallest pond where only a few buddies visit, but I much prefer to be the big guy, as big as possible, fast. It's not about the luxury it brings, it's more about financial independence and the competition. I love the game.

  4. Sequoia Fund has the best picks it is also in my opinion. Their biggest bets, Berkshire(can't lose), TJX, MA, ORLY, MHK, FAST, Constellation Software, Waters. All great, great companies.

    I wonder if their entry price is reasonable, I got my radar on all these stocks, but find them expensive for me, personally.

    The fund's performance since inception is OKAY, 13.67% vs 10.90% for S&P. But the fund's last 10 year return lagged the S&P as the fund (5.96%) vs S&P (6.95%).

    One big mistake, Valeant (35% of portfolio at one time), has dissipated 10 years of hard work and numerous good picks. They're experienced guy, they know Buffett and Graham personally, but they got cocky after years of success and fall into the concentration camp (trap). BAM! Take one years to destroy a life time of good reputation. Only Warren can concentrate like that, all other imitators got wrecked in recent years.

  5. Very good point. I'm amazed how many of these hedge funds have such concentrated positions. If you put half your money into just three stocks...something bad is going to happen eventually.