dimanche 23 avril 2017

Shopify (SHOP.TO)

Angelo Dallas asked me to write something about Shopify (SHOP.TO)

You've probably heard that name before. It's the sensation of the moment on the TSX. The stock has doubled over the last year. It's now selling for a little more than 100$, which is expensive for a stock without earnings.

The company offers to create your own online commerce. You give them money for a specific plan and you can sell your shit. That's about all I know about it. There's probably more options than that, but that's the main mission of the business.

The problem with that kind of investment (just like Amazon or Netflix) is that it's about a new popular concept and traditional methods of analysis are not compatible with that kind of investment.

What about revenues?

2012: 24M$
2013: 50M$
2014: 105M$
2015: 205M$
2016: 389M$

Try to find a business that doubles it's revenues each year and you'll find that it's an almost impossible task. So, thumbs up for Shopify.

And what about earnings?

2012: -1M$
2013: -5M$
2014: -22M$
2015: -19M$
2016: -35M$

So, while revenues are doubling each year, earnings are decreasing even faster.  So, thumbs down for Shopify. Fucking thumbs down for not being able to have any earnings with such revenues.

From then, I don't think that other metrics are important. First, the ROE is obviously negative. When a company doesn't make money, I believe that we should not go further, because if you want to go further, you'll start to use adjusted earnings, adjusted ROE, EBITDA, and you'll adjust everything else to convince you that your deficitary stock is profitable. Then, you'll believe that standard accounting practices are not adapted for that kind of investment, thus believing that accounting rules are now out of fashion. So, in other words, that stock is so great and exceptional that a cartesian approach that's been efficient for the last century doesn't apply for that specific exceptional occasion.

In other words, I like women without adam's apple. And Shopify is a woman with an adam's apple.

5 commentaires:

  1. I recall that a few of the participants in the "10 stocks portfolio challenge" had CRH included in their TOP picks. Anyone have any comments on the recent activity?? I don't have a big position, but got in early ($3.50) and have already trimmed back a couple of times. Thanks!

  2. I was about to comment on CRH even before reading Willy's comments. The stock really got ahead of itself and has gone from $12 to $8 in the last couple of trading days. At $8, the forward p/e sits at around 35. I guess the market decided that 50x or more NEXT year's earnings was a bit much for CRH Medical Corp.
    The company is consolidating a very lucrative niche and I think they have a great future. It's normal for there to be corrections when a stock starts going for over 40x next year's earnings. If the market over-compensates on the down side with panicking sellers, I would be buying this at 25x next year earnings. That's not to say it will go that low. I think CRH is a hold for the patient long term investor. But there's no rush for new investors to jump in right away when the stock price is falling off a cliff (down one third in 2 trading days).

  3. I would be curious to know if CRH has threaten to sue the Canadian fool in the last hours? Fool.ca has issued an article about 10 hours ago titled: Is CRH Medical a Valeant Pharma. The article, which has been removed since, started like this: Here's why CRH Medical Corp. (TSX:CRH) is similar in many ways to pre-crash Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc. (USA) (NYSE:VRX) and what ...
    The article has been replace by a friendlier version titled: Should Investors Consider CRH Medical Corp? I sold my position months ago because of valuation which I consider inconfortable, specially in current market.

  4. Home Capital Group down a mere 65% to $6 today. They need a $2 billion emergency loan to stay afloat. From around $55 in 2014 to $6 today.
    I like women without an adam's apple. Shopify is not deception. This is deception. Fraudulent loan brokers, bad due diligence on their part in their rush to build their loan book. A CEO that needed to be fired this year for incompetence. This is bad because it undermines investor faith in the integrity of companies on the stock market. Shopify is just not making money today in order to acquire as many customers as possible in order to build an economic moat. The fans of Donville are walking funny again. Valeant and Concordia were not enough pain. Here's a stock that drops 65% in one day.

  5. I sold my holdings in HCG a few months ago. Jerome Hass, whose opinion I respect was shorting it. After hearing his reasons why, I decided to read the proxy state backwards from the bottom back up to the top. I noticed that Gerry Solway's relatives were involved in a 'related transaction' with the company. In other words he was conducting business with family members. This was a big negative for me so I dumped the stock the next day...Looking back, I'm glad I did.