vendredi 29 décembre 2017

My returns for 2017

My picks for 2017 have been the following :
  1. Constellation Software (up 26%);
  2. CGI Group (up 5%)
  3. Alimentation Couche-Tard (up 8%);
  4. Linamar (up 26%);
  5. Knight Therapeutics (down 24%);
  6. Tucows (up 79%);
  7. United Therapeutics (up 4%);
  8. Mohawk (up 37%);
  9. Disney (up 2%);
  10. LKQ (up 33%);
Average return : 19,6%
The returns above are the returns of each stock, without the exchange rate between US dollar and CAN dollar. Given the fact that the canadian dollar rose in 2017 (from 76 cents to 79 cents), the return of each american pick has actually been a bit lower than what’s written up there.
The global return of my portfolio has been similar to these 10 picks (18%). 
The return of the S&P 500 has been : 19% and the return TSX/S&P 500 has been about 5%. The Russel 2000 did about 13%. And the Dow Jones did 25%. There’s probably another index which could be appropriate but I’m a little lost among all these indexes. In my opinion, my portfolio should be compared with the TSX/S&P 500 (because my portfolio is 50% CAN and 50% US) so I’ve beaten the benchmark by about 13% which is very good. Feel free to kneel in front of me. And kiss my feet while you’re there.
Give me one year of good results and here I go: claiming blowjobs and not giving any insights about my Valeant years.  
The stars of my portfolio have been Tucows, Mohawk, LKQ, Constellation Software and Linamar… But let’s not forget Credit Acceptance Corp (up 51%), Novo Nordisk (up 50%) Dollar Tree (up 40%) and Ross Stores (up 23%) since the beginning of the year.
My only bad pick was Knight Therapeutics with a return of -24%. Which reminds me that we should never bet on a speculative stock and if we ever own any of these, it should be a small chunk of our portfolio. I still own Knight Therapeutics but I may very well switch for a business that really makes money in 2018. 
 That's probably the last post of 2017. Happy new year to everyone. For 2018, I wich you a transforming experience like swimming in the Ganges or some crazy thing like that. That's what money is for. 

10 commentaires:

  1. My returns for 2017

    Knight Therapeutics (-22.44)
    Tio Network Corp (17.25)
    Brookfield Property Partners (25.51)
    Sandvine Corp (56.23)
    High Arctic Energy Services (-26.04)
    Callidus Capital Corp (-44.15)
    Pine Cliff Energy (-58.41)
    Brookfield Business Partners (33.11)
    Logistic Corp (28.78)

    Ave Return (-7.03)

    Pretty lousy performance…and in a bull market too, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. I’ll try not to shoot my mouth off as much in the new year and perhaps the Gods and Goddesses’ of Investing and trading will treat me better in the times ahead. Remember though that a year is a pretty short time frame to measure performance. My real portfolio is somewhat unbalanced as my small stock picks take up a smaller percentage of the total investment portfolio. But the overriding lesson…is to be humble in the face of the markets…Anyway next year is a new year…

  2. I will start with the 3 stocks that I had in common with last year's penetrator portfolio:

    1. Constellation Software ( up 26%
    2. Knight Therapeutics ( down 24%
    3. Tucows up 79%

    My seven other picks from best to worst:

    4. National Beverage (FIZZ) up 87%
    5. Paycom (PAYC) up 75%
    6. Supernus Pharm. (SUPN) up 61%
    7. Patrick Industries (PATK) up 35%
    8. McKesson (MCK) up 11%
    9. Nevsun Resources ( down 28%
    10. AOBC American Outdoors down 39%

    This works out to an average return of ~ 28%

    I was invested in all ten of these stocks when the year started. However, in the real world, I'm not at all patient with stocks that are not performing. I quickly got rid of the ones that were losing money and added to my position in stocks that were doing well.
    In the process of getting out of losers like a mining company, a gun stock and knight therapeutics, I also exited one of the greatest compounding machines in stock market history (because it went down before it came back up again). I do challenge people to find a more boring and successful compounding machine than Patrick Industries. CEO Todd Cleveland is one of the greatest allocators of capital in stock market history and he's still under 50 years old and dealing with a boring (non tech) company that has a market cap of under $2 Billion. Maybe I'll buy back in during the next dip or stock market correction. You guys might want to see the lifetime chart and five year chart of Patrick Industries (PATK).

    1. Sounds like still cheap; trading around 15 times next year's cash flow with ROE Of 30%.

  3. My returns for 2017 were +16.8% from:

    1. Brookfield Infrastructure
    2. Stella Jones
    3. CGI
    4. Open Text
    5. Fairfax India
    6. Premium Brand Holdings
    7. Kinaxis
    8. TD Bank
    9. Knight Theraputics
    10. Descartes Systems

  4. I would certainly not throw the tower for Knight.

  5. GUD will be a decent performer in the future, I bought it at its bottom just recently and have made 7% on it already. Give it some more time, excellent management. I'm currently running TD, CNR, BYD, WCN, GUD, ATD.B, QSR, BAM.A, and CSU as the main drivers in my portfolio.

  6. I agree with your comments on GUD. Investing is a process in time. Although I don't own BAM.A...I wish I did. I do own all of Brookfield's limited partnerships and they have been tremendous investments for me over the years.

  7. My general rule for the Brookfield group:

    1) In a bull market, own BAM.A when the long bond yields are rising and own BIP.UN when the long bond yields are falling.

    2) In cyclical bull markets, own BAM.A and BIP.UN. In cyclical bear markets own BPY.UN and BEP.UN

  8. so what are your picks for 2018 ? Are you accumulating shares of the same stocks ?