dimanche 10 décembre 2017

Portfolio review (december 10th, 2017)

Please, enjoy that last portfolio review like you're used to watch once in a while.

The game is that, if you want to start an investment club, a hedge fund or anything similar like a sect, you have to keep a certain mystery about what you're doing. Otherwise, nobody has an interest to join you because you give them everything they need. People want magic and mystery. Not honesty.

Keeping 20 stocks in my portfolio is still my goal. So, when I buy a new stock, I have to sell another one, which is sometimes heabreaking. But that's how it goes. There's only place for 20 stocks in my heart. Heart is obviously a synonym of portfolio.

I know the market can't continue to go up forever like that. There's surely gonna be a crash sooner or later. But so far so good. I'm still becoming richer and richer, month after month. And, steadily, things improve. You reach a point when you have a third of a million dollars and, with the historical performance of the market, your portfolio may grow by 30 000 or 40 000$ every year without any effort. That's almost enough to leave your job. That's almost enough to say "fuck you" to everyone and everything if you want it. And that's the most wonderful feeling in the world.

For now, it's only the beginning of such a feeling. But I can feel it coming. I can feel it coming in the air tonight Oh lord.

That being said, there's been a little clean up in my portfolio lately. I've sold a few stocks since september. Not because I didn't like them but because I've found something better.

Here's my portfolio, on december 10th 2017:

Cash: 8,6%

Alimentation Couche-Tard: 7,2%
CGI Group: 6,6%
Constellation Software: 5,9%
MTY Food Group: 5,6%
Tucows: 5,3%
 Hardwoods Distribution: 3,4%
Knight Therapeutics: 2,6%
CCL Industries: 2,3%
Enghouse Systems: 2,1%

Ross Stores: 6,7%
Dollar Tree: 5,8%
Bank of the Ozarks: 5,7%
Novo Nordisk: 4,9%
O'Reilly: 4,7%
LKQ: 4,7%
Priceline: 4,6%
Credit Acceptance Corp: 4,2%
Disney: 3,2%
Mohawk: 3,2%
Middleby: 2,8%

Average ROE: 28
Average FWD PE: 18,6
Average Beta: 0,8

13 commentaires:

  1. I am sticking to 20 or less. Hard to keep up effectively and 20 is really plenty to go by. I see Linamar is gone. I sold 25% of Linamar before crash and I will probably wait until next earnings report as the revenue growth may turn into earnings growth next quarter or quarter after that. If they do well then, I will shed another 25% off and probably hold for a while before auto cycle crash which may never happen. Enghouse is getting cheaper than usual so I have been thinking of adding more. This Friday should be their 4Q release so I may wait until then or pull the trigger before that...

    Knight thera is getting really cheap being traded near their book value. I may wait little longer until loss sale is done.

    Your portfolio looks great! LIke that you added Priceline which I have been eyeing on.

  2. Here's a link to a brief article from a couple of days ago about how one group of analysts considers Priceline among their best ideas for 2018:

    Does anybody have an opinion on TREE? John Malone/Liberty Interactive own about one quarter of this fast growing company. Malone is easily one of the all-time best allocators of capital.
    I just wish I could accurately evaluate a company like Lending Tree. This might be like buying Priceline 10 years ago...or it could be a trap for various reasons. Here's an interesting article on Seeking Alpha:


    What do you guys think?

  3. Hey guys, this just in and posted on YouTube today (Dec 14, 2017)... Penetrator's friend and best selling author Robin Speziale has released his top 15 stocks for 2018. Here's the link:


  4. Anyone here investing in weed stocks or crypto currencies? Thoughts?

    1. I would sooner "invest" at the blackjack table, poker table or roulette wheel than invest in weed stocks. Billion dollar evaluations on companies barely making a buck with a product that was illegal yesterday and may be illegal again in the future (not likely illegal again...but why deal with such a level of risk?).
      Crypto currencies seem like a scheme to steal people's money (especially ill gotten gains). The biggest holder of bitcoin may now be the FBI (they have been seizing the bitcoin of criminals). Imagine what would happen to the value of bitcoins if they were successfully hacked and millions in bitcoin kept being stolen. We do not even know for sure who the "mysterious" founder of bitcoin is. Can the North Koreans hack bitcoin? I do not know. I bet the NSA can hack bitcoin.
      The odds are against us without introducing extra layers of risk. It's not returns that matter. It's risk adjusted returns.

  5. Just my two cents...I think there both bubbles. However after they crash and come down to earth it might be wise to pay attention to which companies survive afterwards. Then once those sectors become unpopular, that might be the time to go fishing when nobody else is fishing in that pond anymore.

  6. You can reach a certain level of thrill if you invest in expensive but amazing stocks like Netflix and Amazon.

    I’d go there before weed and bitcoin. A little risky because of valuation but at least these companies make money and are growing a lot.

  7. Good to hear I'm not the only one who's not interested. I was caught up in the hype with PHM a few years ago. Got out making a buck but even more learned a lesson when an asset appears to be over hyped, it probably is.

  8. I personally don't think 'invest' can be used in the same sentence as 'weed stocks' or 'bitcoin.' Weed stocks in my opinion are VERY risky at these levels. I doubt very much they will legalize on schedule. What happens if the Conservatives win the next election and scrap legalization? I read some statistic that in states that have legalized recreational weed use (WA, OR, COL) prices have plummeted an average of 66%. At the end of the day it's literally a weed... not that difficult to grow. How do you establish and maintain a competitive advantage producing a commodity that carries a fair amount of political risk? Wouldn't touch it with anything but spec money.
    Bitcoins... same thing but worse in my view. To be honest I'm surprised that government and central banks haven't stepped in so far... just goes to show you how reactive, behind the curve and slowwwwwww government is. The one thing the government hates is competition. They control the money supply and cost of money. My friend just made $200k on bitcoins and I asked him if he was going to pay capital gains tax and he said 'no effing way... the government doesn't know I own it, or sold it or what profit I made.' This feels like AirBnb and EBay in that the government finally got smart and started taxing this behaviour. Could weed stocks or bitcoin go higher?... for sure. If you buy either, you aren't investing. You are speculating... nothing wrong with a little spec here and there but I wouldn't commit more than 5% of my investable assets to these types of plays. I will also say that if you do, and you double your money a great way to move forward is to sell half and then 'let the profits run.'
    I think more telling though is the fact these are clear signs we are getting close to a speculative top. I don't know if the top will be in 6 months or 30 months but this is starting to feel bubbly.
    Oh... and this reeks of bubbles too:

    This is classic. He has probably never seen a bear market (he's only 46 so it's possible) and we start to hear things like 'value is stupid and doesn't matter' near cycle tops. It worries me that he's the biggest investor in TOY... we hold quite a bit too! Anyhow, give this guy your spec money... or get rich slowly and stick to high ROE/FCF stocks. You won't be rich in 2 weeks but I guarantee you after 10-30 years you'll be VERY happy.
    Stocks I think are poised to break that meet our criteria and have been consolidating for a while:
    ATD.b, BYD.un, GIB.a (broke out today).
    Good luck.

  9. Baron's has come out with its top picks for 2018:

    top picks for 2018. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD), Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), Anthem (NYSE:ANTM) and US Foods Holding (NYSE:USFD) all make the list.
    They are BEARISH on the off-price retail sector expressed with Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) seen at risk for share price falls.

    Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, Nasdaq.com, CNBC

  10. Excellent. This means the opposite will happen.

    1. I wouldn’t bet against ROST and TJX either. There’s plenty of bad stocks out there. Why betting against something good?