vendredi 30 mars 2018

Penetrator's portfolio performance (1st quarter of 2018)

You may always shine if you chose the right index to compare to. Some funds compare their performance to the index they want, playing with numbers like fucking crooks. And we believe them because we don't know how these indexes work. Or we're too lazy.
I think we should always compare ourselves to the general market because that's general performance. That's the real market.

My portfolio is made of about 60% US stocks and about 40% CAN stocks.  There's some large caps, many medium caps and some small cap. Should I compare myself to 75% of the S&P500 and 25% to some fucking small cap index? That wouldn't be honest. So I compare myself to the TSX/S&P500 composite index (a mix of Toronto and Wall Street).

So, here's how it looks for the 3 first months of the year:

Penetrator's portfolio performance (PPP): -1,6%
TSX/S&P 500 performance: -5,1%
Penetrator's portfolio domination (PPD): 3,5%

Although it's been a negative performance, I think I did well given the fact that I beat the market and that 2 of my 3 first positions didn't do that well (My top 3 is: Ross Stores, MTY Food Group and Alimentation Couche-Tard).

Looking forward, I think my portfolio is very well balanced (Average forward PE: 16, average ROE: 27 and average beta: 0,8). There's been a lot of movement in my portfolio since the beginning of the year and now, it's mostly composed of very predictable stocks with a good ROE, a forward PE similar or lower than the market and a better growth than the market.

How's it been for you?

16 commentaires:

  1. How’s it been for me you ask?

    At the quarter pole here is where I stand…

    Total return.....-2.25

    Hopefully my portfolio horse can make a move on the backstretch and come roaring down stretch at the end of the year.

    1. It’s your 5 top picks right? My performance is relative to my total portfolio.

  2. I am right with Gavin, down (2.1%) and feel there is lots of upside. Great point on the comparisons, just compare to SPX-500.

  3. I picked ANET at $236. It is at $255. I still believe in Arista Networks.
    I picked FIZZ at $103.50 It is at $89. I still believe in National Beverage.
    I picked SUPN at $38.65 It is now at $45.80. It is my top pick and my most overweight position.
    I picked TCX at $66.05 and it is now at $56. I would not buy back. I would not trust $1 of my money with this management.
    I picked SWKS at $97.50 It is now at about $100. If Trump starts a trade war with China things will get really bad for Skyworks and other companies that sell a lot to China.

    pick 1) +8% 2) -14% 3) +18% 4) -15% 5) +3%
    It leaves me at exactly 0. Break even.

    1. My performance is not about my 5 top picks for the year but for my actual portfolio.

  4. Whats all in your portfolio dontfuckwithdonville?

  5. Here's some news to make you feel better about your results:
    David Einhorn’s main hedge fund at Greenlight Capital fell about 1.9 percent in March, extending its loss this year to 14 percent, according to a client update seen by Bloomberg.
    His biggest hits must have been going short stocks like Amazon and Netflix that sport insanely high p/e multiples.

  6. I'm a dividend stock investor and index funds in another. I'm down -6.5% so far in 2018 :(

  7. Actually I just checked again and I'm actually down -10% for the quarter. I neglected to add in the 3K I put into the account.

  8. 1) Great Canadian Gaming - $33.69 now $32.74 down 3%
    2) Novanta - $50.60 now $52.15 up 3%
    3) Shopify - $132.35 now $160.32 up 21%
    4) Paypal - $73.80 now $75.87 up 3%
    5) Savaria - $17.92 now $17.25 down 4%

    Up 4% on my picks. My actual portfolio is up 6% YTD. I was up 13% at one point.. I'm overweight (14%) in Shopify and have 5% or greater holdings in NVDA, PBH, CSU, ANET. I don't mind the volatility as much as I used to so I don't time the market. Try to buy the dips, added to ANET on Friday. Added to my holdings in ETSY as well. I think they have their shit now together and in the long term will be able to maintain a separation from Amazon as a craft marketplace.

  9. Is anyone participating in the Spotify IPO?

  10. It's not returns that's RISK ADJUSTED returns. I could double my money with one spin of the roulette wheel, but I'm not interested in that level of risk.
    IPOs are simply too volatile and unpredictable. If my preliminary research is correct, spotify will be a $40 billion market cap company with no profits? At this stage in the game, I need debt free, cash rich companies with earnings and strong earnings per share growth on the horizon.

  11. I think Angelo makes a good point. The most important thing the market has taught me over the years is to pay attention to and manage your risk. Reading Howard Marks has helped me a lot in this area of investing.

  12. If you're interested, our performance figures can always be found here:

  13. End of March data will be updated shortly. We were down slightly in March.