jeudi 28 juin 2018

6 months through the year

In december of 2017, I wrote a post about my picks for 2018.

Here's how it looks after 6 months:

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO): Down 12%
MTY Food Group (MTY.TO):  Down 13%
LKQ (LKQ):  Down 23%
Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC): Up 7%
Facebook (FB): Up 8%

Average return: -7%
Average S&P/TSX return: -1%

How ashamed should I be to read so much about the stock market, to analyze stocks day after day and not being able to beat the market with my picks. Actually, I've managed to beat the S&P/TSX with my real portfolio (+4% to this date) but my 5 biggest convictions picks didn't do that well.

That's why I could never have a very concentrated portfolio. I don't understand those who own only 4 or 5 stocks. You never know how things will turn with your stocks.

You may now believe that Constellation Software can only go up. Then you buy lots of shares. Then, one day, you learn that Mark Leonard sells some nuclear management softwares to North Korea. And the stock goes down like crazy after seing some pictures of Mark Leonard and Kim Jong Un sharing a moment of joy shooting civilians together with bazookas. You're never protected against that kind of stuff.

So, not a great half of year for now.

19 commentaires:

  1. Is 6 months not way too short as a time-frame to jump to any conclusions? I'm happy to be wrong during 6 months, only to be right after 3, 5 or 10 years...

    1. I don’t have the patience to wait 3, 5 or 10 years. I want results now!

  2. I’ll have to side with el-t on this one. The long term is what I really care about which to me is over three years at least. However picking stocks over the course of a year is fun and makes for entertaining chat…Here’s what I have done so far…

    Picks 2018 Dec-22 Jun-28 % Return

    TPK…(Ten Peaks Coffee) 6.55 6.12 -0.43 -6.56
    MAL (Magellan Aerospace) 20.77 15.63 -5.14 -24.75
    BBU.UN (Brookfield Business Partners L.P.) 43.58 50.15 6.57 15.08
    STN (Stantec Inc) 35.10 33.80 -1.3 -3.70
    PHO (Photon Control Inc) 1.85 2.34 0.49 26.49

    Total Return 1.31

  3. 1) Great Canadian Gaming - $33.69 now $46.55 +38%
    2) Novanta - $50.60 now $61.20 +21%
    3) Shopify - $132.35 now $191.71 +45%
    4) Paypal - $73.80 now $83.29 +13%
    5) Savaria - $17.92 now $16.00 -12%

    Up 21%. I bought Etsy prior to its big jump, also owned Supernus for about a year which also is doing well. YTD I'm up about 25% on my portfolio. Recently bought BOX, SQ and SPOT based on 5i recommendations and sold some shares in PBH and SIS to raise some cash. I have approx 20 different companies and have a concentrated portfolio (Shopify being #1)

    1. Do you own something else?

    2. Largest to smallest. Shop, sis, pbh, Nvda, toy, etsy, Gc, Novt, Kxs, Csu, star, unh, Supn, Pypl, anet, dol, spot, Adbe, fb, team, box, sq.

      Shop to Supn are 4 percent holdings or greater.

      Sold fizz, reduced dol, team, sis, pbh, Pypl, anet, to buy sq, box, spot. Have cash on sideline to add to smaller positions.

    3. Thanks. Makes up for my dark period holding Concordia, allergen and valiant.

    4. Twotime you are really heavy into tech, like half or more of your portfolio. I'd be worried about more dark days if this tech bubble bursts. You invested in Concordia, allergen, and valiant all at once as well. Sounding like you try to time sectors, never works out in the long term.

    5. Not worried at all. There is a lot of overlap into other sectors.

      I've done better in the market and emotionally prepared following Chris Umiastowski's approach to investing.

  4. Any short idea's in the marijuana space? The whole sector is an obvious bubble.
    -Anyone can grow marijuana
    -zero moat
    -extremely over valued
    -Over supply seems very likely
    ... the list is the endless

    ACB raises lots of cash using stock.

    I enjoyed your piece on looking at the face of a CEO as part of an investment thesis. Have you seen Terry Booth, looks to me a like a typical Alberta douche bag that would drive a lifted truck blowing black smoke out the exhaust! All jokes aside, his resume shows no past experience in the horticulture space.

    Your thoughts would be appreciated.

    I'v done well with your advice in the past.



    1. Sorry but I stay away from that sector. I know nothing about it.

  5. 1) Savaria ($18.06, now $16.03 for -11%)
    2) Pollard Banknote ($17.25, now $21.54 for +25%)
    3) Photon Controls ($1.84, now $2.34 for +27%)
    4) Intertape Polymer ($21.21, now $18.07 for -15%)
    5) BRP Inc ($46.65, now $63.38 for +36%)

    Average return +12.5%

  6. I missed this thread. It was in between the blog entry on the foul smells of Chinese streets and the nice smells of Marriott hotels and I did not notice it. Here's what I had:

    1) ANET $236 now $257.50 for 9%
    2) FIZZ $103.50 now $107 for 3%
    3) SUPN $38.65 now $60 for 55%
    4) TCX $66.05 now $60.65 for -8%
    5) SWKS $97.50 now $96.65 for -1%

    net result 11.6%

    I have only held ONE of those five stocks...and I'll leave it to you to figure out which one still makes me smile.
    I see possible trouble ahead. I am switching from growth at a reasonable price to growth at a VERY reasonable price. It leaves me with stocks with a PEG (price to earnings to growth) ratio of 1 or less. I will leave it to others to protect their portfolios by holding 20 or more stocks. I have a concentrated portfolio of high growth companies with a PEG ratio of 1 or less. I also like companies that have a good 10% or 15% of their market cap in cash and stand ready to pull the trigger on an acquisition that will probably pad earnings down the road. Good luck guys.

  7. Looks like I'm the only commodity person posting. Up +6% YTD mainly on the results of:

    1) Nutrien +16%
    2) Cenovus +8%

    In the non-commodity space i recently bought a large position in Roots, for the long-term.

    1. I've got some oil stocks as well. Up 8% as well on Cenovus, Up 29% on Parex Resources, and down 5% on Whitecap but paid a 3% div while I wait.

    2. I think Whitecap is worth $13 and own some. Like you, down a little and holding.

    3. I agree, same goes for Cenovus. Both undervalued and will have massive q4 earnings results. The share price will correct in a hurry. After q3's results the market will realize the potential in both.

  8. Now a contrarian would say because this group is unloved, it is the place to now put your money. Leon Tuey seems to think so...