lundi 30 juillet 2018

NVR inc.

Everybody remembers the great crisis of 2008-2009. We were on the verge of apocalypse back then and we thought that capitalist was coming to an end.

Probably that a lot of people still carry the post-traumatic syndrome of that period. So, they don't trust a lot of banks and they don't trust the construction sector.

So, I'm gonna write about a stock that combines these two evil topics: NVR inc.

What do they do at NVR? Homebuilding and mortgage banking.

Here's some numbers:

First of all, officers own about 10% of the shares, which is very interesting...

Current PE: 19
Forward PE: 12
Current ROE: 36
Average ROE last 5 years:24
Average annual EPS growth last 5 years: 35%
EPS growth last quarter: 60%
Beta: 0,6
Earnings predictability according to Value Line: 80%

Of course, the forward PE isn't low for no reason. I bet it's because of that trade war that Trump has started. The construction industry is dependent on many materials which are imported. So, I believe that's why the stock had a substantial drop lately.

Please note that it's one of the most expensive stock on the market. On july 30th, you'd have to pay about 2700 USD to own a single share. I'm repeating myself here: I like that. It keeps away rookies.

In my view, that stock deserves at least to be on a watch list because many things looks very interesting. Actually, everything is there, apart maybe the sector. But if you want a cloudless sky, you can buy something else at 30 times the earnings.

7 commentaires:

  1. You found one of the better managed stocks in the home builders sector. I guess Mr Market is looking at rising interest rates. Another indicator is the price of copper which has been dropping. Some analysts consider this metal's decline in price as an early indicator of an economy that is slowing down and a stock market that is soon headed for decline.


    Do you guys have a favourite GROWTH stock at an EXTREMELY reasonable price right now? For example: Patrick Industries (PATK) goes for 15x trailing p/e and 11 times forward p/e and the EARNINGS PER SHARE for the last four quarters were: 0.72 , 0.86 , $1.20 , $1.42
    That seems like a lot of growth for a forward multiple of 11 and current p/e of 15.

  3. Thor industries has a forward P/E under 10. You may want to invest in a different sector though if you already have a position in Patrick Industries

  4. An interesting idea is Baylin Technologies…Symbol is BYL with a market cap of about 110 million…

    Below are comments made by Stephen Takacsy of Lester Asset Management, a small and mid cap manager who I follow for investing ideas…

    ‘Baylin is a world leader in wireless antenna design for mobile, network and infrastructure applications. They have a huge long-term growth opportunity, with increasing wi-fi coverage (DAS), wireless LTE network densification (small cell systems) and new antennae and components needed for 5G and connected devices (micro cells).

    Baylin’s new CEO has really turned around the company by reducing costs and expanding product lines to lessen reliance on the mobile segment (where Samsung is largest customer). The company just announced a large acquisition of Montreal-based Advantech, which has complementary RF and microwave products for satellite and wireless base stations. We expect a significant sales increase and cost synergies, with revenues reaching more than $120 million and EBITDA of $23 million plus. Our target price is $6 within 12 to 18 months based on 9 times 2019 EBITDA’.

    This of course is a long term play and with the usual risks associated with small cap companies. I bought some of this about a month ago and plan on holding it for a long time. New CEO’s coming on board small cap companies can really make a bid difference in the operations of the company.

  5. I was on an investing forum earlier today and somebody asked in one of the threads:
    Are there any good YouTube channels that teach investments starting from basic terminology and working into strategies?

    Penetrator's very special friend Robin Speziale is building up an impressive collection of Investing videos on his youTube channel. Below is the link if you want to look at the latest videos or subscribe to his channel. As you all know, Robin is the author of the book: Market Masters. Here's the link to his youTube channel:

  6. One of the five 2018 picks of Penetrator had a strong earning boost this week: Credit acceptance corporation. +15% this week and 35% since 6 months. A balm on the wound from the recent CSU drop of last week

  7. Well done Penetrator on credit acceptance. If i were you, id take some of those profits and buy come csu