jeudi 4 avril 2019

Portfolio review - April 4th 2019

Here's a view on my portfolio: 

Number of stocks: 22
Average ROE: 41
Average Forward PE: 19
Average Beta: 0,77
Predictability of the portfolio: 82%

Performance of the portfolio since january 1st: 16%
Performance of the TSX/S&P500 since january 1st: 14%

I like my portfolio. It's probably not perfect, but to me, it's got the right balance between expensive stocks and fairly priced stocks. The right balance between low beta and higher beta stocks. The right balance between high ROE stocks and average ROE stocks. It's like I've tried for many years to cook the best rice krispies squares and now, I've achieved something. 

I have a portfolio that performs slightly better than the market when the market goes up and substantially better than the market when it goes down. It's hard to affirm that kind of thing because everything changes constantly (the size of the positions, the nature of a particular stock, the whole market, etc). However, how could a high ROE, an OK forward PE, a Low Beta and highly predictable portfolio could perform worse than the market in the long run?  Only time will tell. But for now, short time has told me that it works. 

Yesterday, I said to myself that I'd never had so much money at any point of my life. It's not enough to say I'm rich, but I'm very far from where I started 10 years ago. 

But money isn't everything. Some things were better when I had less money. Sadly, life never provides everything at a specific moment. There's always some stuff missing. Remember that, you stupid little 20-something years-old investor who can still have a boner.

6 commentaires:

  1. Congratulations!

    I still have lots to learn and should reconsider not venturing out of Canadian stock market.

    # holdings = 29 [several historical duds that are not worth the 9.95 to sell]

    future PE = 15.58
    TTM PE = 18.48
    TTM CF = 11.85

    TTM ROE = 21.00%
    TTM ROA = 8.41%

    YTD Performance = 12.86% :(

    beta = 0.84

    What is your US vs CA portfolio split?

    Have you looked at Enghouse (TSE:ENGH) lately? It is near its 52 week lows and has been historically called as baby CSI by some analysts (Espial does not seem to be a very profitable acquisition target even if >1/2 price will be buying cash).

  2. A good and thoughtful post, Penetrator…I’ve been investing about as long as you have (11 years) and after all this time I feel pretty good about my own portfolio as well. Mine is a little different of course…I run a narrow, concentrated, unbalanced portfolio…It suits me and I pretty much ignore what the market indexes are doing. To take the market’s temperature (Howard Marks), I keep track of the momentum of market breadth, I have found that a very illuminating indicator over time, but only as a measure of risk not of prediction.

    Like you I realize that there is more to life than money. If a person is only in the market for the money I think it will be hard for them. You have to have perspective and a sense of the bigger picture (the course of your life)…Investing in the market is a passion for sure but its only part of who I am…

    1. The important thing is to beat the market. If, over a period of 5 years, you haven't beat the market (on an annual basis), I think you should buy some index stuff.

  3. Well that depends on a few things. First you have to define what the market is and then you have to consider where you are in your evolution as an investor. I look upon my past eleven years of investing as serving my apprenticeship. I’m now a better investor today than I have ever been before. Sorry the index thing is not for me. I am now married to my dividend growth stocks with no divorce in site.

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