mardi 6 août 2019

Expensive and predictable stocks... Do you really need to worry about the PE ratio?

I once read some article about Giverny Capital saying that the guys working there usually didn't bet on an increase of the PE ratio for any specific stock.

It was a revelation for me. These guys seemed more inclined towards a stock that's expensive but that's always been expensive and highly predictable.

I had the idea of taking a look at 10 stocks with a PE ratio always high. It's not really a random list, because I know all these stocks. All of them are great businesses, with a great moat. But, even if it's not a random list, it's pretty varied.  You have softwares, healthcare, paint, clothes, chocolate, instruments, payment systems, analytical company, aeronotics parts and stuff for construction. I don't think you can be more varied than that.

Right after the ticker, you have the average PE ratio for the last 5 years, then you have the performance of the stock over the last 5 years:

Hershey (HSY): 30 (performance last 5 years: 70%)
Ametek (AME): 23 (performance last 5 years: 76%)
TJX (TJX): 21 (performance last 5 years: 95%)
FactSet Research (FDS): 27 (performance last 5 years: 127%)
Sherwin Williams (SHW): 26 (performance last 5 years: 145% )
Home Depot (HD): 23 (performance last 5 years: 165% )
Intuit (INTU): 44 (performance last 5 years: 239%)
Mastercard (MA): 35 (performance last 5 years: 256%)
Edwards Lifesciences (EW): 35 (performance last 5 years: 359%)
Heico (HEI): 34 (performance last 5 years: 428%)

These stocks have been expensive for a very long time. However, they've beaten the market easily.

Everybody should have a few of that kind of stocks in their portfolio. Perhaps not exactly these stocks, but stocks that share similar characteristics.

1 commentaire:

  1. Microsoft is another good example. Its P/E is actually below the 5 years average and the ROE. It keeps growing with the cloud