dimanche 27 octobre 2019

Portfolio review (october 27th 2019)

It's been about 3 months since my last portfolio review. 

It's time for the quarterly report.

Number of stocks held: 22
Average forward PE: 20
Average ROE: 48
Average Beta: 0,7
Cash held: 7,3% of the portfolio
Performance of the portfolio YTD: 22%
Performance of the TSX/S&P500 YTD: 13%
Performance of the S&P500 YTD: 19%

I have to admit that I'm pretty proud of the performance of my portfolio. There's probably a shitload of people beating my performance once again, but I still beat the canadian/american market by 9% and the american market by 3%. For my size of portfolio, I think it's a very good performance. And I have to tell that my biggest position is MTY which is going not that good these days (-15% YTD). And all of my stocks are large caps (more than 1B$ market cap). 

Whatever the stocks I own, it's been a pretty steady couple of investing years for me. I feel like I have found the stocks that correspond me the best, and more, the balance between all of them. The balance between risk and a predictable performance. I may be redundant here, but I now believe that finding the right balance is the most important thing to achieve. It takes years. And sometimes, you never achieve it, because you just don't really know that you do and you just look for posts like where somebody recommends you a stock or another.

I may sound a bit cocky with that post. But it's not the case. The next recession will hit me like it will hit everybody. But I'm pretty sure it will hit me less than most investors. 

Here's my top 5 positions: MTY, Constellation Software, Couche-Tard, Google, Carmax.

3 commentaires:

  1. I think the major indices mask how badly many investors have done lately. If you own smaller cap stocks, if you own pharma stocks, if you own industrials, then you have taken a beating. A lot of different types of companies have struggled during this trade war between America and China which threatens the global economy. If you tried gambling on most mining situations or pot stocks then you just got slaughtered. The low quality garbage stocks just got beaten down very badly. The results of somebody like the Penetrator are far better than the major indices would indicate.

  2. This part of your post really resonated with me…

    ‘I feel like I have found the stocks that correspond with me the best, and more, the balance between all of them.’

    I’m in the same place…

  3. Penetrator has a collection of high performance, high quality companies in his portfolio. His short term performance does not matter since he has already made it to the top of the mountain. If his portfolio had more modest returns than some naive sucker in the short term, it has absolutely no meaning since he has rocketed over the cumulative cratering losses of the terrible portfolio like mine which might have short term boost but is still deeply in red. Compounding on top of a mountain is much more impressive than crawling in a swamp and trying to climb from one hole after another. I am barely positive overall and might not have even beat "real" inflation (food, housing, etc.).

    January to October 2019, my portfolio performance has been 32.40% (non-reg 41.89%, TFSA 26.03%, RRSP 22.57%) vs TSX index of 19.11%. I was unusually lucky this year thanks to partial price recovery of the alternative mortgage lenders. Unfortunately, my overall performance is still abysmal.... although I am very happy to be finally back in black overall (even though I still have more than 1/2 loss in my RRSP after the pharma and oil collapse (I had 4 stock in it - CMG, CEU, VRX, and CXR originally and now have GIB.A, VRX, and CMG and have not put any new money in it since I opened it, after realizing the terrible government penalties for withdrawing money from it)).

    My cumulative portfolio performance since opening as of:
    Oct 2018 overall -11.25% (non-reg 2.26%, TFSA 4.66%, RRSP -59.83%)

    Dec 2018 overall -17.50% (non-reg -5.89%, TFSA -2.27%, RRSP -62.22%)

    Oct 2019 overall 9.23% (non-reg 33.54%, TFSA 23.17%, RRSP -53.69%)

    For comparison, as of Oct 2019, the TSX index should have yielded 30.85% cumulative total performance. I have underperformed by whopping 21.62%.

    My annualized performance is:
    1 year 23.08 vs 14.23 TSX index
    3 year 7.19 vs 7.14 TSX index
    I have not been on market for 5 years yet.

    Most of my holdings have paper loss at the moment. Only CSU has done any more meaningful compounding for me at this point. My top 10 holdings are: cash/GIC, EQB, HCG, CSU, ENGH, DOL, LNR, ECN, GIB.A, LAS.A . I only hold Canadian-listed companies.

    Good luck and thank you for sharing you thoughts and experiences!