mercredi 20 novembre 2019

Apple is now expensive

Being able to tell if a stock is cheap or expensive is something very difficult. It will take you years before getting there. And even after many years, you'll still be unable to be sure about your impression. You'll mostly get to a point of approximate comfort or discomfort with a stock. That's the best you can aim, in my opinion...

An example of an expensive stock is Apple (AAPL). The current PE is 22 and the FWD PE is 18. You've surely seen scarier valuation than that...

But historically, Apple's PE is way lower than that. See for yourself:

2009: 21
2010: 18
2011: 15
2012: 12
2013: 14
2014: 17
2015: 11
2016: 14
2017: 18
2018: 13
2019: 22

Last time the PE was this high was 2009. Let's add that, in 2009, Apple was a much smaller company. And the Iphone/Ipod was the new revolution (there's no revolution in sight these days).

Analysts expect 10% annual growth for the next 5 years. I think it's reasonable but I don't think we could expect much more for such a giga-cap.

Apple is still a great great great company. I wouldn't tell anybody to sell an entire position. But at the current level, I think a reduction would be appropriate for someone owning a big position.

But, do what you want. I don't care. What matters to me is my own portfolio. Fuck you.

4 commentaires:

  1. Nice information on here, I would like to share with you all my experience trying to get a loan to expand my Clothing Business here in Malaysia. It was really hard on my business going down due to my little short time illness then when I got heal I needed a fund to set it up again for me to begin so I came across Mr Benjamin a loan consultant officer at Le_Meridian Funding Service He asked me of my business project and I told him i already owned One and i just needed loan of 200,000.00 USD he gave me form to fill and I did also he asked me of my Valid ID in few days They did the transfer and my loan was granted. I really want to appreciate there effort also try to get this to anyone looking for business loan or other financial issues to Contact Le_Meridian Funding Service On Email: / He also available on WhatsApp Contact:+1-9893943740.

  2. Lots of expensive stocks with PEs north of 20 and 10% growth. Sometimes that's just a sign of paying for quality in a no-interest rate world. Try not to over think things and let your winners run.