Recent crisis and how long it took to come back

What's tragic about the current crisis is that many people will lose their job. A lot of people working in tourism (airlines, hotels, attraction parks, and many other activities), restaurants and retail will be unemployed for at least a few months. It's certain that a recession will occur. That means less money in the economy and a much higher unemployment rate.

You know the famous quote about the difference between a recession and a depression? A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression occurs when you lose your job. That's the only funny joke I know about economics.

So, in a way, we're going through a tragedy. I have the chance to work in a field related to the public sector, so, the crisis won't affect my job. But it's not the case of many people.

Let's compare apples with oranges. In other words, let's compare the lenght of some recent big market drops that happened for reasons that aren't related:

2008-2009 crisis: 2 years and a half to recover (from september 2008 to february 2011);
Techno crisis of 2000: Almost 7 years to recover (from august 2000 to may 2007);
1987 crisis: About one year and a half to recover (from october 1987 to may 1989).

This time, the experts say that a vaccine could be available in 12 to 18 months. That means that the crisis would probably last a few more months before the economy comes back.

Meanwhile, brick and mortar shops will suffer, it's obvious. There's probably only food shops that will do okay because that's the only place where people will be allowed to go without restrictions. A lot of people will become obese, having nothing else to do than eating.

I think that techno stocks are the best one the face the crisis. Google, Facebook, Netflix, Amazon. I think that payment stocks like Mastercard, Visa and Paypal will also do well even if the economy goes into a contraction phase. People are encouraged to pay with cards instead of money in many places and I believe that this event will accelerate the disparation of real money (not really the disparition, but at least a big drop). I'd also bet on Metro and CN. Well, CN will be affected but their position seems very solid. Many companies will have a hard time, but when you have a monopoly or an oligopoly, you're always in a much better place than all the others.

Once again, oil stocks are a pretty bad place to put your money. Retail was half-interesting, half-bad, but now, it's almost all bad.

Eventually, we'll be back on track. It may be tough until then, but meanwhile, while the battlefield is all fucked up, it's a good time to take a strategic position for the future. That's how I'm approaching the issue.