mercredi 29 juillet 2020

Chapeau, Shopify

Like all the incredible growth stories where there's little or no profit, I've been reluctant with Shopify. It's hard to get away from what you've learned from Warren Buffett and all the so-called great investors. Nobody advices to buy stocks where there's no profit.

But, even if nobody told us to invest in that kind of stock, Shopify's growth is truly incredible: revenues surged 97% during the second quarter. Now, that's a growth rate.

Plus, now, they make a little profit (36 million dollars).

And what about EPS?

Regular EPS: 0,29$
Adjusted EPS: 1,05$

Let's speculate that the EPS will be the same for the 4 quarters of 2020. Given that hypothesis, Shopify is sold for 1200 times regular earnings and 333 times adjusted earnings. Of course, growth will surely continue (so, the forward PE may be 50% lower than what I'm proposing, but that's still very high).

If a vaccine is found, will things slow down a lot for Shopify? If the pandemic continues, will numbers triple for Shopify? Who fucking knows? Who's got the fucking almanach for 2021?

All I know is that Shopify offers an incredibly high growth and is sold for an incredible high price. And I know that this kind of growth can't last for very long but it can also last for a couple of years...

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