mercredi 3 février 2021

Shhhhhhhhhhh (edit)


Here I am. Behind the bushes. No, I'm not jerking off. I don't do that anymore because it may be misinterpreted. I'm here because I'm watching Topicus (TOI.V) IPO very discreetly. I don't want to make too much noise about it, because I don't want the price to go up. 

Mark Leonard did everything to keep that IPO as quiet as possible. The information about Topicus hasn't been promoted, the numbers are in Euro, the shares are issued on the Venture exchange (crappy stock exchange full of shitty stocks, plus, a fucking index that wasn't solid enough to allow the trading of the shares last monday... so the trading only began on tuesday). It looks like he did everything possible to avoid a madness around the IPO. 

What's the right price to pay for Topicus shares? Did you spend a bit of time trying to figure what would be a good price? No? You were too occupied watching Netflix? Yeah, me too. But I stopped for 10 minutes and tried to see what price I would pay for Topicus.

After all, Constellation Software didn't gave me hundreds of Topicus shares. TOI.V represents only 0,5% of my portfolio. I'm not interested at all in keeping such a small position. Either I sell it entirely (because it's valuation is too high) or either I buy a lot of shares to own a full position (3-4% of my portfolio). 

The Great White North Triangle (Jason Del Vicario in Vancouver, Be Smart Rich in Toronto and me in Quebec city) had a lot of conversations about Topicus. We all have our own views about it, but we're all at least a bit excited about Topicus. The other guys value TOI in a different way than me, but not that far. 

In my opinion, a price under 50$ would mean a PE of 30 or so. Which would be an OK price, given the level of growth of the company (18-20% a year). But at the current price (about 60$), it's too much. 

Because there are some stocks like Facebook and Google that are growing at a similar pace (and maybe even a little more than that) that are sold for a cheaper PE. 

But people like brand new things. They want a new pair of shoes or a new stock. Or they want to fuck a new girl. It's as simple as that. Don't lie to yourself. 

3 commentaires:

  1. I you owe one here...You mentioned Topicus in a post awhile ago, so I did a search on it and stumbled on a very interesting article about it. As I love spin-offs I put the article in my own blog so I will pass it on to you...

    Its always good to share information, although I hope I didn't attraction too much attention to you while you were in the bushes.

  2. J'en ai acheté une barge aveuglément! On verra bien ! Je suis en amour avec le brand !

  3. You don't jerk off anymore or you don't jerk off behind bushes?