mercredi 19 janvier 2022

Stick with high quality

 Like everybody else, when I see somebody being excited about the drop of a specific stock (saying: "That stock is now down 50% and it went up 200% last year!", I'm not indifferent. Excitation of other people, as long as I respect them or I have a vague positive impression of the person has sometimes a slight effect on me.

These days, we can see many high-flying stocks of the recent years down by 50% or more. 

For instance:

Sea Limited (SE) is down 55% over the last 3 months;

Block/Square (SQ) is down 50% over the last 3 months;

Avalara (AVLR) is down 40% over the last 3 months;

Shopify (SHOP) is down 40% over the last 2 months;

Mercadolibre (MELI) is down 35% over the last 3 months

There are many many other examples. And while everybody is worried about the rising of interest rates and many more months or years of COVID, these stocks with very high valuation took a hit. 

That's not where I'm looking currently. I'm looking at more boring stocks than that.  I'm looking at stocks which offer a nice growth, don't carry too much debt (less impacted by rising interest rates) and have a rational valuation. Almost all the stocks I own respect these criterias in my opinion. 

Another one could be United Health (UNH). Their results were out today and they were great. That company has a very rational PE (about 20-22) and isn't part of the folly around interest rates. 

Considering it's valuation and current growth, that stock should double over the next 5 years. Of course, Mercadolibre may decuplate over the same period, but the road will be much bumpier. 

A lot of people seem to have forgotten that doubling your money with a boring stock in 5 years is actually great. 

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